LRCX · Q4 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Lam Research

Reported July 29, 2026

30-second summary

Lam printed $6.72B of revenue (+30% YoY, +15.1% QoQ) with non-GAAP EPS of $1.82 — beating consensus by 8.3% on EPS and 0.7% on revenue — and blew past the June guide on margins, delivering 52.0% gross margin (+150bps vs. midpoint) and 38.4% operating margin (+190bps vs. midpoint). The September guide is the real signal: $8.10B revenue midpoint is +21% QoQ off a beat and implies +52-60% YoY vs. Q1 FY2026's $5.32B baseline, with gross margin held at 52.0% and operating margin stepping UP another 110bps to 39.5%. FY2026 closed at $23.23B (+26% YoY) with $4.89B of FCF; management framed 2026 as a "third consecutive year of outperformance" but conspicuously withheld FY2027 guidance.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$1.82

+8.3% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$6.72B

+30.0% YoY

+0.7% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

52.0%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2026

$1.27B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

38.4%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$6.72B	+30.0%	$5.84B	+15.1%
EPS	$1.82	—	$1.47	+23.8%
Gross margin	52.0%	—	49.8%	+220bps
Operating margin	38.4%	—	35.0%	+340bps
Free cash flow	$1.27B	—	$0.81B	+56.8%

Guidance

Lam delivered a strong beat across revenue, EPS, and margins in Q4 FY2026, with forward Q1 FY2027 guidance signaling accelerating growth and expanded profitability driven by AI-demand tailwinds.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2026	$6.60B +/- $0.40B	$6.72B	+$0.12B above guide	Beat
EPS (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2026	$1.65 +/- $0.15	$1.82	+$0.17 above guide	Beat
Gross Margin	Q4 FY2026	50.5% +/- 1%	52.0%	+1.5pts above guide	Beat
Operating Margin	Q4 FY2026	36.5% +/- 1%	38.4%	+1.9pts above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2027	$8.10B +/- $0.40B	+52-60% YoY
EPS (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2027	$2.15 +/- $0.15	—
Gross Margin	Q1 FY2027	52.0% +/- 1%	—
Operating Margin	Q1 FY2027	39.5% +/- 1%	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	YoY
Systems Revenue	$4.25B	+13.9%
Customer Support-Related Revenue and Other	$2.47B	+17.3%

Capacity & utilization

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Deferred Revenue	$2.43 billion
Deferred Revenue from Japan (Not Yet Transferred)	$490.2 million

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)	38.4%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	52.0%

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover (Q4 FY2025) → AI as quantified SAM (Q1 FY2026) → exceeding investor-day plan (Q2 FY2026) → bias to upside on $140B (Q3 FY2026) → third consecutive year of outperformance, but silent on 2027 (Q4 FY2026).

Language migrated from bounded confidence to structural claim, but the willingness to quantify forward stopped this quarter. Three quarters ago management was talking about a "robust setup" for CY2026 with no number. Two quarters ago the number arrived ($135B WFE). Last quarter it was raised to $140B "with bias to the upside." This quarter the framing is "third consecutive year of outperformance in 2026" — but there is no CY2027 number, no updated CY2026 number, and no explicit FY2027 guide. The anchor line — "Our strategic investments and technology leadership are helping customers accelerate through rising manufacturing complexity, positioning Lam for a third consecutive year of outperformance in 2026" — is retrospective claim-staking rather than forward quantification. That is a subtle but important shift after two quarters of the opposite pattern.

AI framing hardened from opportunity to operating model. Q1 FY2026 described "billions of dollars of SAM expansion." Q2 FY2026 said "growth is materializing faster than we anticipated." Q3 FY2026 pointed to NAND pull-forward and $140B WFE. This quarter's release states plainly: "AI-driven demand continues to reshape the semiconductor industry." The word "reshape" implies the demand pattern is now permanent architectural change, not cyclical upside. Combined with margin structure (52% gross, guided to hold; 38.4% op margin, guided to expand another 110bps), management is telling readers the operating model has been re-based.

The margin story is now fully inverted from December 2025. Twelve months ago the December quarter guide cut gross margin 210bps to 48.5% on tariff and mix. This quarter delivers 52.0% gross margin and guides forward at 52.0% ±1%. A 350bps gross-margin swing in four quarters, combined with 540bps of operating-margin expansion (33.0% guide → 39.5% guide), is the single largest quality-of-business improvement in coverage. The bear case that dominated the December guide — structural margin reset from tariffs and China mix — has been fully repudiated by four consecutive quarters of print.

The absence of an FY2027 number is the most important tone signal this quarter. Every prior quarter added specificity. This quarter did not. Two readings: (1) management is saving the FY2027 quantification for the September call, consistent with prior cadence; (2) constraints previously framed as "cleanroom and supply chain" are becoming harder to size as demand outruns capacity. Either way, the September call is the tell.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

June revenue vs. the $6.60B ±$400M guide — Printed at $6.72B, $120M above midpoint and +15.1% QoQ, comfortably clearing the $6.40B threshold. The H2 > H1 framing and $140B WFE "bias to upside" are validated; the September guide extends the setup with a +21% sequential step-up.

Resolved positively

June gross margin holding 50.5% ±1% — Printed at 52.0%, +150bps above midpoint and +50bps above the high end. The "structurally-elevated margin" thesis did not just hold — it advanced. September guide of 52.0% ±1% moves the normalized level up by 150bps from where management set it last quarter.

Resolved positively

June operating margin vs. 36.5% ±1% — Printed at 38.4%, +190bps above midpoint and +90bps above the high end. Opex grew far slower than revenue; the +150bps QoQ step-up management guided actually delivered as +340bps. September guide of 39.5% extends the leverage.

Resolved positively

China decline magnitude in the June quarter — China printed at $1.75B (26% of revenue), down from 34% in Q3. This is BELOW 30% a full quarter ahead of management's "by end of CY2026" framing. The cliff not only arrived early — it landed hard. Non-China offset (Taiwan surged to $1.81B / 27%) more than absorbed the mix shift.

Resolved positively

Customer down payments trajectory — Total deferred revenue rebuilt to $2.43B from $2.22B in Q3 (+$210M QoQ), with the Japan-shipments-pending portion at $490M (up from $434M). The company did not separately disclose the down-payments line-item this quarter, but the deferred-balance rebuild is the composite signal. The mix-upgrade narrative is intact and the forward book is not softening.

Resolved positively

Advanced packaging absolute sizing — Management did not disclose a dollar base for advanced packaging in the release. Second consecutive quarter without absolute sizing.

Continue monitoring

2027 quantification — No dollar framing of 2027 WFE, no FAB-completion bridge, no explicit FY2027 revenue or EPS guide. Management laid the groundwork last quarter but did not deliver the number this quarter. Given the pattern (CY2026 first quantified in January 2026 on the Q2 call), September is now the target date.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

September revenue vs. the $8.10B ±$400M guide: +21% QoQ off a beat is unprecedented in coverage. Watch whether the print lands at or above midpoint — anything below $7.90B would signal the sequential ramp is decelerating and would question the read that CY2026 back-half is running ahead of the $140B WFE frame.

September gross margin holding 52.0% ±1%: management explicitly moved the normalized level up 150bps this quarter. A print below 51.5% would suggest the June beat was mix-driven rather than structural.

September operating margin vs. 39.5% ±1%: the +110bps QoQ step-up on top of a 190bps beat requires opex to remain essentially flat as revenue steps up another $1.4B. This is the tightest opex-flex test yet.

First explicit FY2027 quantification: if the September call delivers a CY2027 WFE number or an FY2027 revenue frame, that is the single most model-relevant data point of the next 90 days. If it does not, the two-quarter pattern of adding forward specificity has broken, and the reason matters.

China as % of revenue holding below 30%: June printed at 26%, well ahead of the CY2026 destination. Watch whether September prints at 22-26% (cliff complete, new equilibrium) or bounces back to 30%+ (June was a timing artifact, not structural).

Deferred revenue trajectory: rebuilt to $2.43B this quarter. Watch whether the balance holds above $2.4B (consistent with the $8.1B September ramp) or backs off (would suggest the ramp is being pulled forward faster than the book is being replenished).

Advanced packaging dollar sizing: third quarter of asking. Management has now grown this segment >40% for two straight fiscal years by their own framing but has never disclosed a base. September call is the natural venue.

Sources

Lam Research Q4 FY2026 earnings press release (period ended June 28, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000033/lrcx_exhibitx991xq4x2026.htm
Tapebrief Q3 FY2026 brief (LRCX, reported 2026-04-22) for cross-quarter comparison.
Tapebrief Q2 FY2026 brief (LRCX, reported 2026-01-28) for cross-quarter comparison.
Tapebrief Q1 FY2026 brief (LRCX, reported 2025-10-22) for cross-quarter comparison.
Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 brief (LRCX, reported 2025-07-30) for cross-quarter comparison.

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