tapebrief
MDLZ · Q1 2026

MDLZ · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Mondelez International

Reported July 28, 2026

30-second summary

Mondelez printed Q2 organic revenue growth of 2.2% on +1.5pp pricing and +0.7pp volume/mix, reported revenue of $9.36B (+4.1% YoY, beating consensus $9.20B by 1.7%), and adjusted EPS of $0.73 (beat $0.68 consensus by 7.4%). Management responded by raising the FY2026 organic revenue floor to "at least 2%" (from flat-to-2%) while quietly cutting the FY FX EPS benefit from +$0.06 to +$0.05 and reaffirming the flat-to-5% cc EPS band — despite Q2 adjusted EPS growth landing at −2.7% constant currency, well outside the reaffirmed range. The organic floor raise is real; the FX cut is a hidden trim; and the FY EPS algorithm now needs a materially stronger H2 to hold the low end.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.73

+7.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$9.36B

+4.1% YoY

+1.7% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

42.6%

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

20.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$9.36B$8.98B+4.1%$10.08B-7.2%
EPS$0.73$0.73+0.0%$0.67+9.0%
Gross margin42.6%32.7%+990bps27.8%+1480bps
Operating margin20.8%13.0%+780bps8.0%+1280bps

Guidance

Company raised organic revenue growth floor to 2% (from 0–2% range) but lowered currency EPS benefit by $0.01; FY2026 EPS growth reaffirmed 0–5% constant currency despite negative Q2 adjusted EPS growth of −2.7%.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Non-GAAP EPSQ2 FY2026—0.73in-line with consensus (0.68 estimate)Beat
RevenueQ2 FY2026—9.355+1.7% above consensus ($9.2B estimate)Beat

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Organic Net Revenue Growth
FY 2026
flat to 2%at least 2%Low end raised from 0% to 2% (midpoint effectively +1pp)Raised
Currency Translation Impact on Adjusted EPS
FY 2026
+$0.06+$0.05−$0.01 per shareLowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EPS Growth (flat to 5% (constant currency)), Free Cash Flow (approximately $3 billion), Currency Translation Impact on Net Revenue (approximately 2.0%)

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Organic Net Revenue Growth2.2%5.6%—
Volume/Mix+0.7 pp-1.5 pp—
Pricing Growth+1.5 pp7.1 pp—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin34.0%33.7%—
Adjusted Operating Income Margin13.1%14.3%—
Adjusted EPS Growth (Constant Currency)-2.7%——
YTD Free Cash Flow$0.7 billion——

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Latin America$1.374B$1.194B+15.1%
Asia, Middle East & Africa$1.971B$1.821B+8.2%
Europe$3.377B$3.412B-1.0%
North America$2.633B$2.557B+3.0%
Emerging Markets$3.909B$3.638B+7.4%
Developed Markets$5.446B$5.346B+1.9%
Return of Capital to Shareholders (H1 2026)$1.5 billion——

Management tone

No transcript was available this quarter; tone analysis below is drawn from press-release framing and prior-quarter arcs.

Q3 2025 anchor: structural elasticity reset → Q4 2025: cocoa-windfall reinvestment / 2027 inflection deferred → Q1 2026: outperformance absorbed into reinvestment, 2027 hardened → Q2 2026: organic floor finally banked, but EPS algorithm silently strained.

The organic floor raise breaks a two-quarter reaffirm streak. For two consecutive quarters management explicitly refused to raise the FY organic guide despite Q1 organic at 3.0% and now Q2 at 2.2%. This quarter the floor moved to "at least 2%" — a signal that H2 organic visibility has improved enough to bank the low end, but not enough to specify a midpoint. That is a partial commitment: management is telling investors organic is safer than they thought three months ago, but not that upside has materialized.

The FX EPS benefit trim is the first sign the currency-tailwind narrative is unwinding. Every prior quarter reaffirmed +$0.06 FX EPS benefit. This quarter's $0.01 cut to +$0.05 is small in absolute terms but directional — and matters because the FY EPS algorithm has been leaning on FX to compensate for underlying pressure. If FX continues to move against Mondelez through H2, the reaffirmed flat-to-5% cc band converts into a reported EPS cut without any explicit guide change.

The reaffirmed EPS band despite −2.7% Q2 cc EPS growth is the most aggressive posture yet. Q1 cc EPS growth was −14.9%; Q2 was −2.7%. The improvement is real, but H1 cumulative cc EPS growth is well below the FY 0-5% band. Management is implicitly promising H2 will re-accelerate sharply — a claim the release does not quantify. This is either genuine confidence in the cocoa-tailwind flow-through, or a sandbag position from which management will need to walk back later in the year.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q2 organic growth holds above 2% as Easter falls out. Q2 organic landed at 2.2% — above the FY flat-to-2% range even without Easter timing. Management responded by raising the FY floor to "at least 2%". The concern is that Q1 (3.0%) → Q2 (2.2%) shows the underlying pace decelerating ex-Easter, and 2.2% has less cushion against H2 volatility than the Q1 print suggested. Status: Resolved positively
Adjusted operating margin direction from 11.7%. Q2 OPM landed at 13.1%, +140bps QoQ from Q1 11.7% — stabilization confirmed as the Middle East cost drag and Q1 inventory headwind rolled off. Adjusted gross margin recovery to 34.0% (+330bps QoQ) is the more emphatic signal. The FY EPS band is under pressure from Q2 cc EPS growth of −2.7%, but on the margin trajectory alone, the low end of flat-to-5% cc is more defensible than it looked at Q1. Status: Resolved positively
North America organic — does +0.5% extend or fade. NA reported YoY accelerated to +3.0% from Q1's +0.5%. The share-gain thesis management staked in Q1 is delivering. If Q3 sustains the pace, the 2027 base year narrative strengthens materially. Status: Resolved positively
European volume/mix dynamics ex-Easter. Company-wide vol/mix improved further from −0.5pp in Q1 to +0.7pp in Q2 — the first positive company-wide vol/mix print in many quarters. That directly answers whether Q1's improvement was Easter-driven optics or the elasticity reset working: the reset is working. However, Europe's reported revenue at −1.0% shows the regional base business remains under pressure ex-FX and ex-Easter. Status: Resolved positively (at company level); European base business trajectory remains a concern.
Quantified working-media / ANC step-up disclosure. The release does not isolate a specific YoY working-media or ANC dollar figure. Adjusted operating margin at 13.1% vs. Q2 2025's 14.3% suggests reinvestment is landing in the P&L, but management is not quantifying it publicly. The Q4 2025 promise of "meaningfully higher" ANC still has no number against it two quarters later. Status: Not resolved
Free cash flow conversion pace. H1 YTD FCF at $0.7B — below the ~$1B run-rate implied by the ~$3B FY guide. The FY FCF guide was reaffirmed, but H2 must now deliver ~$2.3B, roughly 3.3x the H1 pace. Achievable historically, but the guide is now under real execution pressure. Status: Continue monitoring (leaning negative)
Middle East cost headwind quantification. No specific dollar figure was disclosed in the release. The Q2 margin recovery suggests the Q1 headwind absorbed as flagged, but the cost line remains a black box. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 organic growth stays above 2% as pricing continues to moderate. Pricing at +1.5pp in Q2 vs. +3.5pp in Q1 — if pricing drops toward zero and vol/mix doesn't extend above +1pp, organic slips below the raised floor within one quarter and forces a sheepish walkback. Q3 FY2025 organic was 3.4%, meaning the base is soft enough to make a print above 2% achievable, but not guaranteed.

H2 adjusted EPS re-acceleration on a constant-currency basis. H1 cc EPS growth is negative; the reaffirmed FY 0–5% cc band requires meaningful positive cc EPS growth in H2. Q3 cc EPS growth needs to print positive to keep the FY range credible — anything below −5% cc effectively kills the guide.

FX EPS benefit trajectory. The FY FX EPS benefit was quietly trimmed from +$0.06 to +$0.05 this quarter. A further trim at Q3 to +$0.04 or below would erode the algorithm materially and increase the odds the reaffirmed cc EPS band converts to a reported EPS cut before Q4.

North America organic sustainability at +3.0%. Two consecutive positive prints (Q1 +0.5%, Q2 +3.0%). If Q3 holds above +2%, the share-gain mechanics are validated as a multi-quarter recovery. A slip back below +1% resurfaces the "structural envelope compression" thesis from Q3 2025.

H2 FCF ramp against the ~$3B guide. $0.7B YTD means Q3 alone likely needs to deliver ~$1.0B+ to stay on track. Anything below $0.7B in Q3 puts the FCF reaffirmation on the same trajectory the EPS guide is now on: reaffirmed but stressed.

Cocoa cost trajectory vs. the ~$2,500-3,000/tonne modeling anchor. Q2 adjusted gross margin at 34.0% (+330bps QoQ) confirms the cocoa cycle is easing. A Q3 print above 34% would strengthen the 2027 chocolate margin inflection thesis; a reversal back below 32% would break it.

European reported YoY inflection. Europe at −1.0% reported in Q2 shows the base business is still weak once FX and Easter drop out. If Q3 stays negative on a reported basis, the elasticity-reset story loses regional credibility even if company-wide vol/mix keeps improving.

Sources

  1. Mondelez International Q2 FY2026 earnings press release, filed via SEC EDGAR, July 28, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026050157/mdlzearningsreleasecontent.htm
  2. Tapebrief MDLZ Q1 FY2026 brief (prior-quarter context and watch list)
  3. Tapebrief MDLZ Q4 FY2025 brief (multi-quarter guidance arc)
  4. Tapebrief MDLZ Q3 FY2025 brief (multi-quarter tone arc)
  5. Tapebrief MDLZ Q2 FY2025 brief (multi-quarter tone arc)

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.