MDT · Q4 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Medtronic

Reported June 3, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 organic revenue grew 6.6% to $9.81B (9.9% reported) and non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.55, with CFO Thierry Piéton framing the year as "results ahead of expectations on both revenue and EPS." That framing sits in tension with the $5.62–$5.66 FY26 non-GAAP EPS band carried in our prior-quarter guidance record: FY26 printed at $5.53, $0.09 below the low end of that prior band. The reconciliation likely runs through either a later Q3 walk-down not captured in our prior guidance file or a "vs. consensus" reference in the CFO quote — worth pinning down on the Q1 call before treating it as a clean operational miss. FY27 guidance of 6.75–7.25% organic growth and $5.90–$6.00 non-GAAP EPS (6.7–8.5% growth) embeds the 53rd week and full-year Diabetes contribution, lands at the upper half of the "high single-digit" framework management had been walking down in Q3 Q&A, and notably arrives without a formal Diabetes separation IPO filing.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$1.55

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$9.81B

+6.6% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

65.4%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

25.5%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$9.81B	$8.93B	+9.9%	$9.02B	+8.8%
EPS	$1.55	$1.62	-4.3%	$1.36	+14.0%
Gross margin	65.4%	65.1%	+30bps	64.9%	+50bps
Operating margin	25.5%	27.8%	-230bps	24.1%	+140bps

Guidance

FY26 results modestly missed non-GAAP EPS guidance but beat organic revenue growth; FY27 guidance raised with 6.75–7.25% organic growth and 6.7–8.5% EPS growth, benefiting from 53rd week and full-year Diabetes contribution.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue growth	Q4 FY2026	approximately 6%	6.6%	+0.6pts above guide	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2026	$5.62 to $5.66	$5.53	below the range by $0.09–$0.13, but close to guidance range provided context	Met
Organic revenue growth	FY2026	approximately 5.5%	5.8%	+0.3pts above guide	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue organic growth	FY2027	6.75% to 7.25%	—
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2027	$5.90 to $6.00	—
Non-GAAP EPS growth	FY2027	6.7% to 8.5%	—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Cardiovascular	$3.797B	$3.336B	+13.8%
Cardiac Rhythm & Heart Failure	$2.11B	$1.733B	+21.8%
Neuroscience	$2.751B	$2.62B	+5.0%
Medical Surgical	$2.388B	$2.212B	+8.0%
Diabetes	$0.837B	$0.728B	+15.0%
Structural Heart & Aortic	$1.002B	$0.944B	+6.1%
Cranial & Spinal Technologies	$1.403B	$1.342B	+4.5%
Acute Care & Monitoring	$0.568B	$0.503B	+12.9%
Cardiac Ablation Solutions Growth	78% globally, 124% U.S.	—	—
Micra Growth	mid-teens	—	—
Surgical & Endoscopy Growth	3.5% organic	—	—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Cardiac Ablation Share Gain	+8 points	—	—
Free Cash Flow Conversion	76% of non-GAAP net earnings	73%	—
Operating Cash Flow	$7.3 billion	$7.044 billion	—
Dividend per Share (Q1 FY27)	$0.72	—	—
Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases	49	—	—

Management tone

No earnings call transcript was available for this brief; tone analysis is deferred. Cross-quarter narrative arc resumes when transcript-grade commentary is available.

The press release framing alone is notable on two points. First, FY27 guidance arrives quantified at 6.7–8.5% EPS growth — the upper half of the "high single-digit" range management used in Q3 Q&A. Either the embedded 53rd week, full-year Diabetes contribution and M&A benefit are doing more heavy lifting than the Q3 narrative suggested, or the underlying operational raise is real. Second, the Diabetes business is included in the FY27 organic growth guide for the full year — a clear signal the calendar-year-2026 separation target has slipped, with no IPO filing announced on this print.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 organic growth vs. the ~6% "similar to Q3" guide. Q4 organic revenue grew 6.6% YoY against the ~6% guide — per the press release, 90 basis points ahead of Q4 implied guidance — despite the stronger Q4 FY25 comp management had flagged. The deceleration concern embedded in Q3's "similar to Q3" language did not materialize. Status: Resolved positively.

Simplicity Spiral revenue disclosure on the Q4 call. The press release did not disclose a Simplicity Spiral run-rate or any FY27 baseline figure for the RDN business. Three consecutive quarters of activity-only disclosure now; this is the third deferral. Without transcript commentary the question of whether the Q4 call provided a hard number remains technically open, but no figure appears in the release. Status: Not resolved.

Stealth AXiS Q4 contribution to CST and neuroscience print. Neuroscience grew +3.0% in Q4, below the +3.5% threshold set last quarter, and CST decelerated to +3.3% from Q3's +4.7%. Management has now deferred neuroscience acceleration three times — Q2 to Q3 (Specialty Therapies), Q3 to Q4 (Stealth AXiS), and the Q4 print did not deliver it. Status: Resolved negatively.

FY27 EPS guidance band. Formal FY27 non-GAAP EPS guide is $5.90–$6.00, or 6.7–8.5% growth — the upper half of the "high single-digit" framework. Management did NOT land in the lower half as Q3 Q&A telegraphed; the guide is more constructive than the walk-down implied. Status: Resolved positively.

Gross margin trajectory. FY26 non-GAAP gross margin printed at 65.3%, down from 65.7% in FY25 — gross margin did NOT increase slightly ex-tariffs as the original FY26 guide framed. Q4 at 65.4% suggests stabilization but not the expected expansion. The CAS catheter/capital mix inflection has not yet arrived. Status: Resolved negatively.

Diabetes separation IPO filing timeline. No formal IPO filing was announced on the Q4 print. Moreover, FY27 organic revenue guidance explicitly includes the Diabetes business for the full fiscal year — meaning separation has slipped beyond FY27. With the original calendar-year-2026 target now ~7 months out, execution risk on the announced timeline has risen materially. Status: Resolved negatively.

What to watch into next quarter

FY26 EPS reconciliation. Our prior guidance record carried $5.62–$5.66; the print was $5.53; the CFO called it "ahead of expectations." Watch the Q1 FY27 call for the bridge — was the band revised lower in Q3 in a way we did not capture, or is "expectations" being used to reference street consensus? The credibility of the FY27 $5.90–$6.00 guide depends on a clean answer here.

Diabetes separation timeline reset. With Diabetes embedded in FY27 organic guidance and no IPO filing announced, watch the Q1 FY27 call for a revised separation timeline. Anything beyond mid-FY28 would meaningfully delay the GM/OM accretion thesis underwriting the post-spin Medtronic.

Simplicity Spiral Q1 FY27 revenue disclosure. Three consecutive quarters of activity-only metrics now. A fourth would functionally tell analysts the revenue ramp is below management's internal targets.

Neuroscience acceleration above +3.5%. Three consecutive deferrals. Watch Q1 FY27 neuroscience print and whether management quantifies the Stealth AXiS contribution that did not visibly arrive in Q4.

CAS US growth sustainment above 80%. Q4 US CAS at +124% sets a brutal FY27 comp. Watch whether US CAS holds above 80% through FY27 — anything below would push the $2B run-rate target past FY28.

Gross margin recovery toward 66%. FY26 gross margin compressed to 65.3% rather than expanding as original guide framed. Watch whether Q1 FY27 GM clears 65.5% as the CAS mix inflection begins, or whether the structural compression is more persistent than management has acknowledged.

Sources

Medtronic FY26 Q4 Earnings Release (SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed 2026-06-03 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1613103/000162828026040034/exhibit991-fy26q4earningsr.htm

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