tapebrief
MGM · Q1 2026

MGM · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

MGM Resorts

Reported July 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q2 revenue of $4.45B grew just 1% YoY and beat consensus of $4.42B by 0.7%; non-GAAP EPS of $0.59 beat $0.58 by 1.7%. Las Vegas Strip Resorts extended the Q1 inflection with a second consecutive positive print (+3% to $2.17B), but the offset stack that carried the story for three quarters cracked — Regional declined 4%, MGM China was flat, and consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell to $610M from Q1's $580M base against Q2 2025's $648M (a ~6% YoY EBITDA decline on ~flat revenue). Management issued no new quantitative FY2026 or Q3 guidance and left forward posture to qualitative language on MGM Osaka and Las Vegas capital allocation.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.59

+1.7% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.45B

+1.0% YoY

+0.7% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

11.3%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$4.45B$4.40B+1.1%$4.50B-1.1%
EPS$0.59$0.79-25.3%$0.49+20.4%
Operating margin11.3%9.2%+210bps6.8%+450bps

Guidance

MGM delivered Q2 FY2026 revenue and EPS beats versus consensus; issued no new quantitative guidance for FY2026 or Q3 FY2026, only qualitative commentary on MGM Osaka timeline and Las Vegas capital deployment.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ2 FY2026—$4.45 billion+0.7% above estimateBeat
EPS (Non-GAAP)Q2 FY2026—$0.59+1.7% above estimateBeat

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Las Vegas Strip Resorts$2.17B$2.115B+2.6%
Regional Operations$0.924B$0.965B-4.2%
MGM China$1.101B$1.11B-0.8%
MGM Digital$0.196B$0.164B+19.5%
Las Vegas Strip Resorts Casino Revenue$536 million——
Regional Operations Same-Store Revenue Growth3.0%——
MGM China Casino Revenue$956 million——
MGM Digital Revenue Growth20%——

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Las Vegas Strip Resorts Table Games Win %29.6%——
Las Vegas Strip Resorts Slot Win %9.6%——
Las Vegas Strip Resorts ADR$242——

Profitability

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA$610 million$648 million—

Management tone

Q3 anchor (Lost control of the narrative) → Q4 anchor (Reset baseline, conditional growth) → Q1 anchor (Growth delivered, confidence harder) → Q2 anchor (Growth continues, disclosure retreats)

No transcript was available for this quarter; the tone read below is drawn from the press-release commentary and the guidance-analysis JSON only. Cross-quarter comparison should be treated as directional.

The forward-language degradation from Q1 to Q2 is the story of the print. Three quarters ago (Q4 FY2025) management framed 2026 as "revert to growth from a reset baseline." Last quarter that hardened to "on track for growth this year" backed by six segment-level FY commitments (BetMGM $300–350M, MGM Digital ~half of FY2025 losses, Japan $200–225M, mid-single-digit convention growth, Q2 convention mix 20%, and qualitative Las Vegas growth). This quarter, the guidance-change extraction flags that management shifted "from 'remain on track for growth this year' and 'see growth through balance of year' (Q1 guidance) to narrower MGM Osaka project milestone language; no restatement of broader growth narrative." That's a real posture change — the broadest, most confident 2026 language management has used all year has quietly disappeared from the forward commentary in the same quarter that the offset engines (China, Regional) stalled.

Las Vegas capital-allocation framing shifted from acceleration to maintenance. Last quarter Halkyard framed capital return around the Northfield 6.6x multiple as sum-of-parts arbitrage — an overtly opportunistic tone. This quarter the Las Vegas capital language is: "continue to allocate growth capital to drive significant returns on investment with meaningful opportunities at Las Vegas luxury offerings." "Continue to allocate" is maintenance-posture language, not the "newly launched promotions" and room-refresh acceleration frame from Q1. The luxury-only qualifier ("Las Vegas luxury offerings") also narrows scope — the mid-tier Luxor/Excalibur value-customer problem management scoped to "6% of EBITDA" last quarter appears to have been removed from the near-term capital narrative entirely.

The BetMGM cadence disclosure that was flagged three quarters running still hasn't been made. Q3 FY2025 raised BetMGM to ~$200M FY EBITDA and disclosed a Q4 ≥$100M distribution. Q4 FY2025 introduced the FY2026 $300–350M guide. Q1 FY2026 reaffirmed the guide without disclosing H1 cadence. Q2 FY2026 still hasn't disclosed an H1 BetMGM contribution figure. That's now three consecutive quarters where the single largest forward EBITDA commitment has been reaffirmed without a run-rate check — and this quarter it wasn't even reaffirmed, just left unaddressed on the print.

Portfolio diversification language, which has been the load-bearing narrative for four quarters, faces its first real test this print. The frame — that MGM China, MGM Digital, and Regional would offset Las Vegas weakness — worked in Q3 and Q4 FY2025 with China +21.3% and Digital +34.5%, and worked in Q1 FY2026 with China +9.2% and Digital +42.7%. This quarter China is flat, Regional is negative, Digital growth halved to +20%, and consolidated EBITDA fell YoY despite Strip growth. The diversification thesis worked when Vegas was the drag; it hasn't been tested with Vegas as a contributor and the diversifiers as the flat spot. This is the first quarter where that combination has printed.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

MGM Digital Q2 segment EBITDA loss narrowing back toward single-digit millions — Not disclosed on the print. Revenue growth of +20% is a material deceleration from Q1's +42.7%, but the segment EBITDA loss figure — the actual watch item — wasn't in the release. Without it, the $45M FY frame cannot be tracked.
Not resolved
Japan funding cadence disclosure and the missing $125–175M of prior commitment — Not addressed. The Q1 disclosure of $200–225M for balance of year was not restated, and no Q1/Q2 Japan spend figure was disclosed to bridge the gap. MGM Osaka was reaffirmed as "on track for 2030 opening" but that's project-milestone language, not funding cadence. The extraction flags this explicitly as one of two hidden cuts.
Continue monitoring
Q2 convention room night mix landing at the guided 20% (+2 pts YoY) — Not disclosed on the print. This was the single most specific Q2 commitment management made last quarter; the actual figure did not appear.
Not resolved
Las Vegas Strip RevPAR holding at or above $238 in Q2 with positive YoY net revenue sustained — Resolved positively on the revenue side: Strip revenue grew 3% to $2.17B, extending the Q1 inflection to a second quarter. ADR of $242 is above Q1's $238 RevPAR (though ADR and RevPAR are different measures; RevPAR itself wasn't disclosed on this print). Net revenue growth accelerated from +0.2% to +3%.
Resolved positively
BetMGM Q1/Q2 actual EBITDA contribution disclosure — Not disclosed. The $300–350M FY frame remains untracked against an H1 run rate for a third consecutive quarter.
Not resolved
Buyback pacing against the "6.6x Northfield vs. current share price" framing — Not disclosed in the extraction. The Q1 rhetorical anchor did not carry through to a specific pacing disclosure on this print.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

MGM China Q3 revenue and margin under the fully-loaded brand fee: the Q2 flat print is the first data point where China stopped growing. The Q1 brand-fee doubling from 1.75% to 3.5% is now fully in the P&L. Watch whether Q3 returns to growth or whether flat-to-declining becomes the new run rate — this is now the swing segment for the whole diversification thesis.

Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA sequential recovery from $610M: the Q2 $610M print compares to Q2 2025's $648M — a ~6% YoY decline on flat revenue. Q3 needs to show EBITDA growth resuming, or the operating-leverage question becomes a full-year story rather than a one-quarter aberration.

First H1 BetMGM EBITDA disclosure: three consecutive quarters of silence on the cadence of the largest single FY2026 EBITDA commitment ($300–350M). If Q3 still doesn't disclose a first-half figure, the FY guide is functionally uncheckable and should be discounted.

MGM Digital Q3 segment EBITDA loss and revenue growth: Q2 revenue growth halved to +20% from Q1's +42.7%. If Q3 decelerates further and the segment loss isn't disclosed, the "half the losses" FY frame and the "2027 break-even" commitment both lose credibility.

Whether any consolidated FY2026 revenue or EBITDA frame is introduced: the disclosure retreat this quarter — three quarters of no consolidated guide plus the Q1 segment-level commitments going unrestated — is the tell to watch. A Q3 introduction of a consolidated frame would be a genuine reversal; another quarter of silence hardens the compartmentalization pattern into a permanent disclosure regime.

Regional same-store growth trajectory ex-Northfield: the +3.0% same-store figure disclosed this quarter is the clean read. If Q3 same-store decelerates below +2%, the "steady contributor" framing that has held for four quarters starts to break.

Sources

  1. MGM Resorts Q2 FY2026 earnings press release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000075/mgmex991q22026earningrelea.htm

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