tapebrief
Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

MOS · Q3 2023 Earnings

Mosaic Company (The)

Reported August 5, 2025

30-second summary

Mosaic reported Q2 2025 revenue of $3,005M with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.29 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.51, as adjusted EBITDA came in at $566M on operating cash flow of $610M. The GAAP-to-adjusted gap is wide ($0.78 of notable-item benefit, driven largely by a $169M consolidated FX gain and a $216M Ma'aden mark-to-market) — the underlying earnings power is the $0.51 adjusted number, not the headline. Gross margin of 17% held up sequentially, but Phosphate swung to an $8M operating loss on $103M segment gross margin and a 9% segment gross margin rate, while Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes both stepped up meaningfully — Potash operating earnings of $194M (vs. $157M in Q1) and Fertilizantes of $109M (vs. $98M in Q1), with Fertilizantes posting a $73/tonne adjusted gross margin, the highest in the visible series.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2023

$0.68

Revenue

Q3 FY2023

$3.55B

Gross margin

Q3 FY2023

11.5%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2023

4.1%

Key financials

Q3 FY2023
MetricQ3 FY2023YoY
Revenue$3.55B—
EPS$0.68—
Gross margin11.5%—
Operating margin4.1%—

Guidance

Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2023
SegmentQ3 FY2023
Phosphate finished product volumes1,582 thousand tonnes
Potash finished product volumes2,220 thousand tonnes
Mosaic Fertilizantes finished product volumes3,060 thousand tonnes
Phosphate operating rate60%
Potash operating rate66%
Mosaic Fertilizantes phosphate operating rate81%
Adjusted EBITDA$594 million
Operating cash flow$647 million

Management tone

No tone-shift analysis available for this quarter.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Global food security crisis driving fertilizer demand recoveryUnder-application of phosphate and potash directly linked to yield losses (2:1 fertilizer cost to yield loss ratio)Brazil destocking complete; distribution margins normalizingSupply-side constraints from geopolitical disruptions (Ukraine war, sanctions, Middle East conflict)Investment in value-added products (MicroEssentials, Mosaic Biosciences, purified phosphoric acid for lithium batteries)Capital allocation shift: high CapEx in 2023 transitioning to lower spending and shareholder returns in 2024

Risks management surfaced:

Geopolitical flare-ups and war in Ukraine reducing grain/oilseed exports by 32% from pre-invasion levelsWeather disruptions (El Niño, droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia)Trade policy and tariff uncertainty (countervailing duty rulings on Russian and Moroccan potash)Logistics constraints limiting Campotex volumes despite demand (rail congestion, port strikes, winter weather)Phosphate production disruptions from hurricanes, sulfuric acid plant maintenance issues, pandemic lingering effects

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the Phosphate operating loss reverses as sulfur costs and turnaround/idle costs normalize — Q2 idle/turnaround costs (ex-notables) of $84M were the highest in the visible series.

Whether Potash netback prices hold the step-up to $261/tonne fob mine, or fade as the seasonal mix shifts.

Whether Mosaic Fertilizantes can hold the $73/tonne adjusted gross margin — a level well above the $42–$46 band that prevailed through 2024.

Net debt trajectory: $4,125M at quarter-end is down from $4,338M in Q1 but still elevated vs. the $3,066M level two years ago; capital returns vs. deleveraging is the open question.

Sources

  1. Mosaic Q2 2025 selected calendar quarter financial information (Exhibit 99.2).

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