MRNA · Q2 2025 Earnings
BearishModerna
Reported August 1, 2025
30-second summary
Moderna posted $142M in Q2 FY2025 revenue, down 41% YoY and 43% QoQ, with cost of sales running at 105% of net product sales — the company is selling vaccines at a gross loss on a net-product-sales basis. Management trimmed the high end of FY2025 revenue guidance by $300M (new range $1.5–$2.2B) — attributing the cut to a UK fiscal-year-driven timing shift of contracted shipments into Q1 FY2026 — while cutting FY GAAP opex by ~$400M and announcing a ~10% headcount reduction to under 5,000 by year-end (from ~5,800 at the start of the year). Cost discipline is real: COGS+SG&A fell 35% YoY, and Q2 cash operating expenses were down $581M YoY (~40%). The cash math still works for now ($7.5B on hand, ~$6B projected at year-end), and management reiterated a 2027 cash cost target of $4.2B (down from $8.9B in 2023) with a cash-cost breakeven goal in 2028. The COVID-era runway is visibly shortening and the pipeline catalysts (CMV Phase 3 final analysis in the fall, Intismeran readouts) have to land.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q2 FY2025
$-2.13
Revenue
Q2 FY2025
$0.14B
-41.1% YoY
Gross margin
Q2 FY2025
-5.0%
Operating margin
Q2 FY2025
-639.4%
Key financials
Q2 FY2025| Metric | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.14B | -41.1% |
| EPS | $-2.13 | — |
| Gross margin | -5.0% | — |
| Operating margin | -639.4% | — |
Guidance
Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.
Segment KPIs
Q2 FY2025| Segment | Q2 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 (Spikevax) | $0.114B | -38.0% |
| Other revenue | $0.028B | -50.0% |
Other KPIs
Q2 FY2025| Segment | Q2 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| R&D Expenses (Q2 2025) | $700M |
| SG&A Expenses (Q2 2025) | $230M |
| Cash & Investments (end of Q2) | $7.5B |
| Cost of Sales as % of Net Product Sales | 105% |
| 2025 Projected Year-End Cash | $6.0B |
| Pipeline Milestones - CMV Phase 3 | Final analysis anticipated in 2025 |
| Flu Vaccine Phase 3 Efficacy vs Standard Dose | 26.6% superior relative vaccine efficacy |
| Workforce Reduction | ~10% reduction to <5,000 headcount by year-end |
Management tone
Two threads stand out from prepared remarks and Q&A.
First, management is now openly modeling COVID as a high-risk-population business, not a mass-market franchise. Asked about fall demand, the company pointed to the 65+ cohort being down only 1–2% versus overall volumes down 10–11%, framing resilience in the at-risk segment as the operative thesis. This is a meaningful narrowing of the addressable opportunity from how Spikevax was positioned in prior years, and it explicitly underwrites the $1.0–$1.5B US revenue range — where the high end assumes flat YoY ex-$200M prior-period reserve reversal and the low end bakes in competitive pricing pressure and lower vaccination rates.
Second, the pipeline narrative is being asked to do a lot of work. Analysts pressed on CMV (the 49.1% VE lower-bound acceptability threshold, plus new powered secondary endpoints around viral persistence, shedding, and latent infection control), Intismeran readout cadence (adjuvant melanoma interim near-term, plus RCC, bladder, lung over the next 1–2 years), and FDA relationships (three approvals granted on time in Q2). Management's answers were specific and confident on the science. On COVID pricing, CFO Jamie Mock provided the framework — contracting is complete, flat-YoY-ex-reserve-reversal at the high end, vaccination/competitive pressure at the low end — but declined to give specific per-dose pricing or share figures.
Third, the cost-out is being framed as productivity, not retrenchment, and the numbers back most of that framing. The 10% headcount reduction is paired with ~150 open positions for commercial launches; combined with the $581M YoY cash opex reduction in the quarter and the $4.2B 2027 cash cost target, the discipline is real. The qualifier: no new respiratory Phase 3 studies are being started, which is a genuine narrowing of forward investment, not pure productivity.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Salveen Richter · Goldman Sachs
Rationale for adding powered secondary endpoints to CMV phase 3 final analysis; cadence of data readouts for intismarin program over next 12 months
Secondary endpoints added to assess broader vaccine value including viral persistence, shedding, and latent infection control—measures beyond primary prevention-of-infection endpoint. Multiple intismarin studies (adjuvant melanoma, renal cell carcinoma, bladder cancer, lung cancer) are event-driven and could read out with consistent cadence over coming 1-2 years; interim melanoma efficacy analysis expected near-term.
Michael Yee · Jefferies
What constitutes a positive CMV readout on VE and secondary endpoints for payer/clinician value; FDA/CBER/ACIP dialogue status and regulatory outlook
49%+ vaccine efficacy represents substantial public health benefit; secondary endpoints (viral shedding, congenital transmission risk, chronic health outcomes) critical for demonstrating broader value. FDA/CBER dialogue remains productive; three recent approvals granted on time; agency provides rigorous reviews and maintains transparent collaboration with Moderna on existing and pipeline files.
Tyler Van Buren (Greg Onn) · TD Cowen
Early demand signals for COVID vaccines in fall/winter 2025; customer contracting and purchasing patterns
International demand stable through advanced purchase agreements and completed tenders. US spring booster campaign showed only modest decline (down ~10-11% overall, down 1-2% in 65+ population March-June), suggesting resilience in high-risk populations. Customer base preparing vaccine availability; early signs encouraging but full clarity expected by end of Q3 after first 6 weeks of season.
Elena Morrow · UBS
COVID vaccine pricing expectations in US for 2025; pricing vs. 2024 and contracting dynamics
Contracting and pricing discussions completed for H2 2025. Pricing pressure and competitive dynamics factored into $1.0-$1.5B US revenue guidance range but specific pricing impacts not disclosed. Management confident in range assumptions but unwilling to provide granular pricing details.
Courtney Breedon · Bernstein
Intismarin treatment patterns across disease stages (adjuvant and metastatic); workforce reduction details and hiring intentions
Intismarin could theoretically be used in both adjuvant and metastatic settings, with updated personalized neoantigen profiles reflecting tumor evolution. Headcount reduction of ~10% (targeting <5,000 by YE2025 from 5,800 at YE2024) driven by manufacturing productivity, phase 3 trial wind-downs (no new respiratory phase 3 starts), and SG&A efficiency. Company continues active hiring (~150 open positions) for commercial launches and pipeline advancement.
What to watch into next quarter
Q3 FY2025 revenue against the implied 40–50% H2 split. At the FY midpoint ($1.85B) less H1 (~$250M), H2 is ~$1.6B, implying Q3 of ~$640M–$800M. Using the full FY range ($1.5–$2.2B less ~$250M H1 = $1.25–$1.95B H2), Q3 spans ~$500M–$975M. A print below ~$500M would suggest the high end of FY guide is no longer reachable and another cut is coming.
US fall booster volumes vs. the 1–2% 65+ decline benchmark. Management explicitly anchored the bull case on the 65+ cohort holding. If the cohort decline accelerates past 5%, the $1.0–$1.5B US guide range becomes hard to defend.
CMV Phase 3 final analysis in the fall — whether VE clears the 49.1% lower-bound threshold and how the new powered secondary endpoints (viral persistence, shedding, latent infection control) read. A primary endpoint miss, or a thin pass with weak secondary data, removes a key FY2026–27 catalyst.
Intismeran adjuvant melanoma interim efficacy readout (management said "near-term"). This is the most investable oncology catalyst on the calendar.
Cash burn vs. the $6B YE target. Q2 ended at $7.5B; getting to $6B implies $1.5B of H2 burn, which is achievable but leaves limited margin against the $3.6–3.8B FY R&D guide and an H2 R&D step-up. Watch whether opex tracks the lower end.
Whether the $300M FY high-end cut truly migrates into Q1 FY2026. Management framed it as UK government fiscal-year timing on the spring 2026 minimum purchase; if those deliveries slip further or get renegotiated, the "timing" narrative breaks.
Progress toward the 2027 $4.2B cash cost target and 2028 cash-cost breakeven. With ~$4B already removed by YE2025 and ~$1B more to go, the trajectory is on track but increasingly R&D-dependent (R&D is >60% of the cost base).
Sources
- Moderna Q2 FY2025 Press Release (SEC Exhibit 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285225000041/exhibit9912025q2pressrelea.htm
- Moderna Q2 FY2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A)
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