MRSH · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Marsh McLennan

Reported January 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Marsh McLennan — now reporting as Marsh (MRSH) — closed FY2025 with Q4 revenue of $6.60B (+9% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.12 (+10% YoY), while consolidated underlying growth printed at 4% for Q4. Full-year revenue reached $26.98B (+10%) with adjusted EPS of $9.75 (+9%) and ~$5.0B of derived free cash flow at an 18.5% FCF margin; buybacks for the year totaled $2.0B (10.1M shares). Underneath the headline, Marsh Risk underlying at +3% and U.S./Canada underlying at +3% are the soft spots, and the absence of any quantified Thrive savings target at the Q4 print leaves the margin re-rating thesis unfunded.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$2.12

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$6.59B

+9.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

18.5%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$6.59B	+9.0%	$6.35B	+3.8%
EPS	$2.12	—	$1.85	+14.6%
Operating margin	18.5%	—	18.4%	+10bps

Guidance

No quantitative guidance provided in either prior or current quarter; unable to assess raises, lowers, or beats.

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Risk & Insurance Services	$3.971B	+9.0%
Consulting	$2.644B	+8.0%
Marsh Risk	$3.664B	+10.0%
Guy Carpenter	$0.215B	+7.0%
Mercer	$1.617B	+9.0%
Marsh Management Consulting	$1.027B	+8.0%

Capital & returns

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Share Repurchases	10.1 million shares for $2.0 billion

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
EMEA (Marsh Risk)	$0.934B	+10.0%
U.S./Canada (Marsh Risk)	$2.197B	+12.0%
Adjusted Operating Income	$1.566 billion	—
Adjusted Operating Margin	23.7%	—
Risk & Insurance Services Adjusted Operating Margin	27.6%	—
Consulting Adjusted Operating Margin	20.8%	—
Underlying Revenue Growth (Consolidated)	4%	—
Marsh Risk Underlying Revenue Growth	3%	—
Full-Year Adjusted EPS Growth	9%	—

Management tone

No earnings call transcript was available for this quarter; tone analysis is limited to the press release.

The press release language shifts from Q3's specific operational architecture — Thrive program launch, brand consolidation timeline — to a generic forward statement: "positioned for sustained momentum in 2026" and team performance "in a complex environment." The contrast matters: Q3 invited investors to underwrite a margin re-rating story; Q4 retreats to anodyne forward language without quantifying any of it. Either Thrive will be detailed at an investor day or capital markets event, or the program is being de-emphasized as a narrative driver. Without a transcript, we cannot disambiguate.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Thrive quantification — Management did not put a dollar figure on Thrive in the Q4 press release. No cumulative savings target, no restructuring envelope, no headcount action was disclosed. The qualitative forward statement ("sustained momentum in 2026") is silent on the program by name.

Not resolved

Underlying growth stabilization — Consolidated underlying printed at 4% in Q4. Marsh Risk underlying at +3% — with U.S./Canada also +3% underlying — is the softer data point underneath.

Resolved negatively

Guy Carpenter trajectory — Q4 underlying revenue grew 5% (GAAP +7% to $215M). The reinsurance cycle did not decisively turn down on the underlying line this quarter.

Resolved positively

Risk & Insurance Services margin progression — Q4 adjusted operating margin was 27.6%, up 60 bps from Q4-2024's 27.0%. Nothing in the print suggests McGriff is dragging the margin line.

Continue monitoring

Capital return pace — FY2025 buybacks totaled $2.0B / 10.1M shares. Management did not lean harder into buybacks as a capital-deployment signal.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Thrive disclosure at Q1 or investor day — does the company finally quantify cumulative cost savings (dollar target, restructuring envelope) or does Thrive continue as a named program without numbers? Beyond two quarters of silence and the margin re-rating thesis weakens materially.

Marsh Risk underlying growth — +3% in Q4, with U.S./Canada also +3% underlying. A second consecutive soft print would mean the core P&C broker is now growing below the consolidated 4% line, with McGriff doing all the work.

FY2026 numerical guidance — Marsh historically guides FY only. Watch for whether the Q1 release contains a revenue, EPS, or underlying-growth band — and whether that band implies acceleration off the 4% underlying base or codifies it as the new floor.

Adjusted operating margin holds above 23% — FY2025 closed at 23.1% adjusted operating margin. If Thrive is real and tracking, FY2026 should expand from here; flat or down would indicate the efficiency program is offsetting reinvestment rather than dropping to the bottom line.

Buyback pace in Q1 — if the prior cadence holds or steps up against the new MRSH ticker, it signals management's preferred capital use; a step down would suggest M&A optionality is back on the table.

Sources

Marsh McLennan (Marsh) Q4 2025 press release, January 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62709/000006270926000014/mmc4q2025ex991newsrelease.htm

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