Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

MSI · Q4 2025 Earnings

Motorola Solutions

Reported February 11, 2026

30-second summary

Motorola printed Q4 revenue of $3.38B (+12% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $4.59, clearing the prior Q4 guide of $4.30–$4.36 by ~6% on EPS and the ~11% YoY revenue bogey by ~100bps. The forward setup is the more important disclosure: FY2026 revenue is guided to $12.7B (+8.6% YoY) with non-GAAP EPS of $16.70–$16.85 (+8.6–9.6%), 100bps of consolidated operating margin expansion, ~$3B of operating cash flow, and Silvus revised up again to $675M (from $600M one quarter ago). Backlog closed at a record $15.7B, +$1.0B YoY, with management guiding double-digit product orders in Q1 and the full year.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$4.59

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$3.38B

+12.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

52.3%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$1.14B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

27.9%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$3.38B	+12.0%	$3.01B	+12.3%
EPS	$4.59	—	$4.06	+13.1%
Gross margin	52.3%	—	51.6%	+70bps
Operating margin	27.9%	—	25.6%	+230bps
Free cash flow	$1.14B	—	$0.73B	+55.8%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	approximately 11% YoY growth	$3.38 billion	+1 percentage point above guide (12% actual vs 11% guided YoY growth)	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	Q4 FY2025	$4.30 to $4.36	$4.59	+$0.23 to +$0.29 above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	6% to 7% YoY growth	6% to 7% YoY
Non-GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$3.20 to $3.25	—
Non-GAAP EPS	FY 2026	$16.70 to $16.85	—
Operating Cash Flow	FY 2026	approximately $3 billion	—
Operating Margin Expansion	FY 2026	100 basis points	—
Products and SI segment revenue growth	FY 2026	7% to 8%	—
Software and Services segment revenue growth	FY 2026	10% to 11%	—
Silvus revenue	FY 2026	$675 million	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP EPS	FY 2025	$15.09 to $15.15	$15.38	+$0.23 to +$0.29 above prior range midpoint	Raised
Revenue	FY 2026	—	$12.7 billion	—	Raised

Product revenue

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Products and Systems Integration	$2.158B	+11.0%
Software and Services	$1.222B	+15.0%

Management tone

Q4-24 hardware cycle → Q1-25 software pivot setup → Q2-25 LMR rebrand and Silvus framing → Q3-25 Silvus upsize and 2026 anchoring → Q4-25 demand-durability defense and assist monetization.

Two quarters ago, Silvus was framed as a $185M FY2025 stub contribution and "at least 20¢ accretive in 2026." One quarter ago that moved to $500M FY2025 / 30–40¢ accretion / ~20% 2026 growth on a higher base. This quarter Silvus 2026 revenue is now $675M, +$75M above Q3 expectations, with explicit demand diversification language: "when we look at 2025 revenue all in for Silvus, it was more international versus North America, primarily driven by strong demand in Ukraine, the UK, and Germany." The three-step upward revision in three quarters is the most aggressive serial upgrade of an acquisition framing Motorola has made in recent memory, and the burden of proof on 2026 organic growth ex-Silvus rises with each step.

Last quarter management hedged Q4 with shutdown timing language: "we're watching carefully the timing impact." This quarter that hedge is gone, replaced with a forward demand commitment: "we've had three consecutive orders, Q2, Q3, Q4, of double-digit product orders. By the way, we expect double-digit product orders in Q1, and we expect double-digit product orders for the full year in Q26." The pivot from defensive Q4 hedging to forward order-cadence commitment is unusual for Motorola, which historically guides one quarter at a time and avoids forward-order commentary.

Through Q1–Q3 2025 the assist/AI narrative was directional — "category-creating gateway," "AI assistant" framing for SVX, narrative-writing demos. This quarter assist crystallized into a productized SaaS unit: two launched suites (911 dispatcher, first responder) at $99/user/month, with a stated cadence of additional personas to follow. Management's framing: "We don't see these solutions as point products. They're the integrated nerve center of the emergency workflow." The Q3 commitment to "Apex Next ecosystem" is now a pricing sheet, which makes the 300k device target for end-2026 testable against attach economics rather than narrative.

The federal/ARPA/DOGE bear thesis that hung over Q2 and Q3 was preemptively answered with hard data this quarter: $2.4B in Q4 product orders (+$500M YoY, a record), plus FedRAMP approvals for SVX, APEX Next, and digital evidence management. Management's language widened from "watching" federal timing to "widens the aperture of the addressable market that we can sell LMR into" — a TAM-expansion framing rather than a risk-management framing.

The Q1 2026 revenue guide of 6–7% YoY is a step-down from Q4's 12% print, but management framed this as compare normalization rather than demand weakening, citing 100bps of FY2026 operating margin expansion in both segments and ~$3B of operating cash flow. The new caution is tariff-specific: ~$60M incremental tariff headwind in H1 2026, with gross margins guided to be "comparable" despite the pressure — a tighter margin assumption than the +100bps operating margin guide implies, signaling reliance on opex leverage rather than gross-margin expansion to hit FY2026 EPS.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Record backlog and order momentum providing multi-year revenue visibility despite macro uncertaintyAI-powered assist suites as new recurring revenue driver with clear monetization ($99/user/month) and product roadmapCloud migration acceleration in command center and video driving margin expansion and TAM growthFedRAMP approvals (SVX, APEX Next, digital evidence management) unlocking federal market TAM expansionSylvus integration and scaling driving defense/unmanned systems growth with NATO and international tailwindsOperating leverage and services mix (S&S 32.5% margin, up 170bps) sustaining >30% consolidated operating margins

Risks management surfaced:

Tariff headwinds: incremental $60M expected in H1 2026Memory cost increases (less than $50M exposure on $6B COGS but mitigating through vendor diversification and potential pricing)Federal market execution risk on new FedRAMP-approved products (SVX, APEX Next) in competitive landscapeSylvus customer concentration risk (Anduril represents large portion of unmanned systems TAM)International geopolitical dependency on Ukraine/NATO demand sustainability

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 revenue clearing ~11% YoY growth despite the federal shutdown. Q4 revenue grew 12% YoY to $3.38B, clearing the ~11% guide by a full point. Management did not flag shutdown-driven pull-forward as a material contributor to the beat, and product orders of $2.4B (+$500M YoY) suggest demand resilience rather than timing benefit.

Resolved positively

S&S operating margin stabilizing at or above 32.6%. S&S non-GAAP segment margin came in at 34.3% in Q4, recovering 170bps from Q3's 32.6% and clearing the 33% line that broke last quarter. Combined with the S&S revenue reacceleration from +11% to +15%, the ecosystem-margin compounding thesis is intact.

Resolved positively

Silvus organic Q4 revenue disclosure. A discrete Q4 Silvus revenue figure was not broken out on the print, but FY2026 Silvus guidance was raised to $675M (from ~$600M one quarter ago, originally $500M), with management citing international demand strength in Ukraine, UK, and Germany. The forward number went up; the Q4 organic granularity needed to back-solve the 2026 trajectory wasn't disclosed.

Continue monitoring

Apex Next device installed base exiting 2025. The year-end 2025 Apex Next installed base was not disclosed on the press release. Management did anchor on a $99/user/month role-based pricing model for the assist suites and committed to a cadence of additional personas, but the device-count milestone needed to validate the 300k by end-2026 target wasn't called out.

Continue monitoring

FY2026 revenue guide framing on the Q4 call. FY2026 revenue is guided to ~$12.7B (+8.6% YoY), with P&SI +7–8%, S&S +10–11%, command center +15%, video +10–11%, and MCN +7–8%. The aggregate is well above the 3% Q3 organic growth print — but $675M of that is Silvus (~5.5pts of growth), implying organic FY2026 growth in the low-to-mid single digits ex-Silvus. The headline is bullish; the organic decomposition is closer to in-line. Status: Resolved positively (headline), Continue monitoring (organic decomposition)

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 revenue clearing the 6–7% YoY guide. This is a step-down from Q4's 12% print. Watch whether the deceleration is fully explained by compare normalization or whether organic demand softens; anything below 6% would force a re-rating of the FY2026 8.6% trajectory.

S&S segment margin holding above 33%. S&S recovered to 34.3% in Q4 from 32.6% in Q3. A return to the low 32s would reopen the Q3 question of whether 33%+ is the new floor or a high-water mark.

Silvus quarterly revenue cadence. $675M FY2026 implies roughly $170M/quarter. Watch for the first Q1 print — anything below ~$150M makes the $675M FY anchor look back-loaded and re-introduces the serial-upgrade risk.

Tariff impact landing at or below $60M H1. Management guided gross margins "comparable" despite ~$60M tariff and memory cost headwinds. A larger H1 hit forces reliance on opex leverage to defend the +100bps operating margin guide.

Assist suite attach rate disclosure. With $99/user/month pricing now public for two suites and additional personas committed, the first disclosed attach or revenue figure becomes the testable input for the AI monetization thesis.

Federal order pacing post-FedRAMP approvals. SVX, APEX Next, and digital evidence management are now FedRAMP-approved. Watch for explicit federal revenue or pipeline disclosure to validate the "aperture widening" framing.

Sources

Motorola Solutions Q4 2025 press release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000006/msiq42025pressrelease.htm

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