tapebrief

MU · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Micron

Reported June 25, 2025

30-second summary

Micron printed $9.30B in fiscal Q3 revenue (+37% YoY, +16% QoQ), with data center revenue more than doubling YoY and HBM revenue growing nearly 50% sequentially to a $6B+ annualized run rate. The Q4 guide of $10.7B at the midpoint implies another ~15% sequential growth, and management pulled forward the timing for HBM market share parity with overall DRAM share to H2 CY25 from the prior year-end target. The tone is confident on execution; CY26 HBM supply commentary, while substantive, stopped short of an explicit sold-out statement.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.91

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$9.30B

+36.5% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

39.0%

Free cash flow

Q3 FY2025

$1.95B

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

26.8%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025
MetricQ3 FY2025YoY
Revenue$9.30B+36.5%
EPS$1.91
Gross margin39.0%
Operating margin26.8%
Free cash flow$1.95B

Guidance

Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Data Center Revenue YoY GrowthMore than doubled
HBM Revenue Sequential GrowthNearly 50%
DRAM RevenueAll-time high

Profitability

Q3 FY2025
SegmentQ3 FY2025
Operating Cash Flow$4.61 billion

Management tone

Management's framing on HBM tightened from a roadmap pitch to a delivery narrative. Sanjay characterized the business as "at scale with healthy shares," and the share-parity timing was pulled forward by roughly a quarter — from exiting CY25 to H2 CY25 — anchored on 12-high yield ramping faster than 8-high. The signal: HBM is no longer a future option, it is the operating reality, and the bottleneck is now capacity and customer mix, not qualification.

On HBM supply for CY26, the posture became more measured. Asked directly by J.P. Morgan whether CY26 supply was fully committed or whether customer demand was exceeding capability, management reaffirmed CY25 is sold out and pointed to CY26 HBM bit demand growth significantly exceeding overall DRAM demand growth, while framing customer conversations around evolving platform requirements and HBM3E 12-high / HBM4 mix rather than declaring CY26 supply fully booked. The distinction between the unambiguous CY25 sold-out language and the more process-oriented CY26 commentary is worth tracking as pricing negotiations progress.

The market-equilibrium language ("memory market equilibrium is being gradually restored") is a softer register than a pure up-cycle script. It coexists with confidence on the next two quarters but signals that management is not extrapolating today's pricing into perpetuity — they are framing the cycle as normalizing rather than accelerating, even as their own bookings argue for the latter.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Memory market equilibriumSupply-demand rebalancingGradual recovery dynamics

Risks management surfaced:

Market equilibrium establishment timingSupply chain normalization challenges

Q&A highlights

Timothy Akari · UBS

How does HBM TAM scale with accelerator TAM growth, and is there a limit to HBM attachment rates on GPUs and ASICs?

Sanjay explained HBM revenue growing from $18B in CY24 to ~$35B in CY25, with CY26 HBM bit demand significantly exceeding overall DRAM industry growth. Transition from 8-high to 12-high in HBM, plus HBM4 (higher value), HBM4e in CY27, and customization in CY28 support continued strong trajectory. Micron is well-positioned with capacity ramp and sampling HBM4.

HBM revenue: $18B CY24 → ~$35B CY25CY26 HBM bit demand growth will significantly exceed DRAM industry demand growthTransition from 8-high to 12-high HBM in CY26HBM4 introduction in CY26, HBM4e in CY27

Vivek Arya · Bank of America Securities

What drove Q3 gross margin upside versus guidance, is this the new baseline, and what are the puts and takes for margins in coming quarters?

Mark attributed Q3 margin beat to better-than-expected pricing despite price declines, good cost performance, and favorable mix. Q4 margin guide of 42% reflects continued favorable mix (more DRAM than NAND, more data center than consumer). Management expects margins can be up in Q1 despite bit constraints, through mix management toward higher-value DRAM and NAND products. Beyond Q4, management noted they won't provide Q1 guidance but are positive on trajectory.

Q3 gross margin: 39% (110 bps sequential improvement, 250 bps above guidance midpoint)Q4 guidance: 42% ± 100 bpsQ3-Q4 improvement driven by favorable mix (DRAM > NAND, data center > consumer)Leading edge DRAM inventory very tight, some legacy pockets also tight

CJ Muse · Cantor Fitzgerald

On HBM market share target: you previously said exiting the year, now saying second half CY25—clarify timing. How should we think about HBM growth in CY26 in terms of bit growth versus ASP increases with next-gen products?

Sanjay clarified that HBM is already at 6B+ run rate (based on FQ3 performance) and Micron expects to reach HBM share in line with overall DRAM share earlier than previously stated (sometime in H2 CY25 rather than year-end). For CY26, HBM bit demand growth will significantly exceed DRAM industry growth, driven by 12-high transition and HBM4 ramp (higher-value products). Strong yield ramp on 12-high (faster than 8-high) supports earlier achievement of share targets.

Current HBM run rate: 6B+ annualized (based on FQ3)Target share achievement: H2 CY25 (earlier than previously guided)CY26 HBM bit demand growth significantly exceeds overall DRAM industry growth12-high yield ramp progressing faster than 8-high

Harlan Sir · J.P. Morgan

One year ago you said HBM was sold out through CY25 with locked-in pricing. Where are you on CY26 HBM supply and pricing negotiations? Is CY26 supply fully committed or is customer demand exceeding forecast supply capability?

Sanjay confirmed HBM remains sold out for CY25 as previously stated. For CY26, Micron is working closely with customers on their evolving platform requirements (HBM3E 12-high and HBM4 mix). He noted strong HBM bit demand growth expected in CY26 significantly exceeding DRAM growth, and Micron has strong product roadmap. However, management did not directly answer whether CY26 supply is fully committed or whether customer demand is exceeding supply capability—instead redirected to ongoing customer collaboration and execution focus.

HBM fully sold out for CY25 (consistent with prior guidance)CY26 HBM bit demand growth significantly exceeds DRAM demand growthActively working with customers on CY26 HBM3E 12-high and HBM4 mixSamples of HBM4 delivered; volume production targeted for CY26

Thomas O'Malley · Barclays

On HBM: what is normalized market share going forward given competitor qualification difficulties? On NAND: what is current utilization, and what is the plan for next year—market dependent or forced by gross margin headwinds?

Sanjay stated HBM is now at scale with healthy shares and successful delivery. Going forward, HBM will be managed like the rest of the portfolio, focused on total eye, ROI, and profitability—share can move around by segment. Emphasized flexibility through fungible capacity (HBM uses proven 1-beta tech, compatible with overall portfolio) and ongoing backend capacity expansion in Singapore. On NAND, Sanjay confirmed 10% structural capacity reduction by end of FY25 versus FY24, and leading edge NAND is fully utilized. Part of NAND remains underutilized, but did not provide specific utilization target or forward plan.

HBM share will be managed holistically with portfolio for profitability; share may vary by segmentHBM capacity is fungible with non-HBM DRAM productionSingapore backend capacity expansion targeted for 202710% structural NAND capacity reduction by end of FY25 vs. end of FY24

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q4 FY2025 non-GAAP gross margin lands at or above the 42% guide — and whether management commits to margin expansion into Q1 FY2026 as suggested in Q&A.

Specific disclosure on CY26 HBM supply commitments — watch whether the Q4 call provides explicit booking visibility or pricing terms to match the CY25 sold-out language.

HBM share trajectory against the H2 CY25 parity target: a print materially above the $6B annualized run rate would validate the pull-forward; a flat sequential print would not.

DRAM pricing trajectory now that "leading-edge inventory is very tight" — watch whether the company quantifies pricing direction for Q1 FY2026 on the Q4 call.

NAND underutilization resolution: management declined to commit to a forward utilization plan. Whether the underutilized capacity comes back online or gets permanently reduced is a margin lever in either direction.

Singapore backend capacity expansion targeted for 2027 — any pull-forward or capex revision would signal demand visibility extending well beyond the current HBM4 cycle.

Sources

  1. Micron Technology, Inc. Fiscal Q3 2025 Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed June 25, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312525000019/a2025q3ex991-pressrelease.htm
  2. Micron Technology Fiscal Q3 2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges as transcribed).

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.