tapebrief
NDAQ · Q4 2025
Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

NDAQ · Q1 2026 Earnings

Nasdaq, Inc.

Reported April 23, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 14% YoY to $1.407B with non-GAAP EPS of $0.96 and non-GAAP operating margin at 57% — one of the strongest starts to a year in NDAQ's history per management, with ARR organic growth inflecting to 12% from the 10% Q4 print and three prior quarters at 9%. Management raised the FY2026 non-GAAP opex range to $2.485B–$2.545B (+$20M at midpoint) and explicitly flagged a Q2 step-up tied to annual compensation timing, while reaffirming the tax-rate range at 22.5–24.5%. The Index Q1 sequential drag that the prior watch list flagged appears absorbed without breaking the algorithm — Index revenue grew 14% YoY and TTM net inflows held at $79B.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$0.96

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$1.41B

+13.7% YoY

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

46.6%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$1.41B+13.7%$1.39B+1.1%
EPS$0.96—$0.96+0.0%
Operating margin46.6%—45.2%+140bps

Guidance

Nasdaq raised full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance by ~$20M at midpoint while maintaining tax rate guidance; no forward quarterly revenue/EPS guidance provided.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Non-GAAP Operating Expense
FY 2026
$2.455 billion to $2.535 billion$2.485 billion to $2.545 billionLow end raised +$30M; high end raised +$10MRaised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-GAAP Tax Rate (22.5% to 24.5%)

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026YoY
Capital Access Platforms$0.565B+10.9%
Financial Technology$0.517B+18.3%
Market Services$0.317B+12.8%
Data and Listing Services$0.214B+8.8%
Index$0.22B+14.0%
Financial Crime Management Technology$0.093B+21.0%
Regulatory Technology$0.118B+16.8%
Capital Markets Technology$0.306B+20.5%

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR)$3,188 million
ARR Growth (YoY)13% reported / 12% organic
Financial Technology ARR$1,822 million
Capital Access Platforms ARR$1,366 million
SaaS Revenue as % of ARR38%
ETP AUM (Period End)$836 billion
TTM Net Inflows (Index)$79 billion
Non-GAAP Operating Margin56.8%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 FY2025 deleveraging-done-optionality-unlocked → Q3 FY2025 milestone validation with FCMT recalibration → Q4 FY2025 industry-architect posture with launch-path tokenization → Q1 FY2026 capabilities-as-operating-model with quantified AI adoption.

Two quarters ago, agentic AI was a portfolio with monthly cadence and "strong early use among our clients." This quarter, the framing is quantified deployment: "Our agentic AI workforce is now deployed by more than 500 clients, up 40% since Investor Day" and AI-ready data adopted by managers representing "over $9 trillion in assets under management." The shift from "shipped product" to "500+ clients with specific growth rate since the February investor event" is the operating-model proof point that the Q4 watch list flagged as still narrative. The reframing of NDAQ as "trusted transformation partner to our clients as they navigate structural shifts in the financial markets and accelerate their AI journeys" — language management is repeating across the press release — elevates the moat narrative beyond product to enterprise advisory positioning.

Three quarters ago, FinTech growth was framed as enterprise-implementation-lagged with FCMT expected to finish FY2025 just below its medium-term range. This quarter, FinTech printed +18% organic revenue and +16% organic ARR, with FCM at 21% and CMT at 20% organic, and the implementation lag that the Q3 FY2025 buy-side call sweated has converted. The Q3 FY2025 "variable quarter-to-quarter ARR growth" caveat doesn't appear in the Q1 FY2026 framing — replaced by record growth language. The recovery anchored to Q4 and 2026 arrived on schedule, with FY2026 starting at the high end of the algorithm rather than just inside it.

Tokenization shifted from "filed proposal with dated 23/5 milestone" in Q4 FY2025 to active multi-stakeholder execution. The press release language — DCCC working toward first trade before end of 2026 and NDAQ token design early benefits "in the first half of 2027" — moves the timeline from regulatory architecture to dated milestones with specific counterparties. The hedging language ("it is going to be an evolution, not a revolution") is honest about pace but the milestones themselves are no longer aspirational.

The data-business reframing is the quietest but most strategically significant shift. Where the Q3 FY2025 data print was the lagging segment (Data and Listing Services +7%), Q1 FY2026 reframes data as "high-growth, strategically accelerating" with 32% YoY growth in enterprise license agreements and 19% of ETP AUM now non-U.S. Management's framing — "there's just more demand for the companies that are listed on NASDAQ and U.S. equities in general from global investors" tied directly to 23/5 trading preparation — converts what looked like legacy infrastructure into a structural beneficiary of the always-on markets stack.

The capital-return cadence sustained at scale. Q4 FY2025 closed the M&A optionality conversation; Q1 FY2026 confirms it with over $700M returned to shareholders in the quarter ($153M dividend + $548M buyback) — Q1 buybacks alone ($548M) nearly matched the entire $616M repurchased across all of FY2025 per management. With gross leverage at 2.8x at end of Q1 2026 and the credit upgrades from January in hand, this is capital deployment as a deliberate organic-growth-confidence posture, not a deal-pipeline-dry posture.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI adoption at scale (500+ Verifin agentic AI clients, $9T+ AUM with AI-ready data)Cloud migration as structural tailwind (80% of FinTech ACV bookings cloud-based; ~90% of AxiomSL ACV bookings cloud)Always-on markets and 23.5 trading driving multi-product demand accelerationEnterprise cross-sell momentum (85 upsells in Q1; cross-sells >15% of FinTech pipeline)Data monetization accelerating globally (32% growth in enterprise license agreements; 19% of ETP AUM non-U.S.)Record profitability and capital return (57% operating margin, 60% EBITDA margin, $700M+ returned to shareholders in Q1)

Risks management surfaced:

Market volatility and sector rotation impacting index flows (acknowledged as short-term tactical, not structural)Uneven IPO environment amid market volatility (partially offset by strong pipeline and improving Q2 momentum)Liquidity concerns from market participants regarding 23.5 trading launchCyber risks from new AI models in financial infrastructure (proactively managed through testing and partnerships)Mixed shift in derivatives volume from higher-priced to lower-priced micro e-mini contracts due to retail activity

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Index Q1 FY2026 sequential drag and Q2 normalization — Resolved positively on the Q1 read. Index revenue grew 14% YoY to $220M, with end-of-period AUM at $836B, record average AUM at $877B, and TTM net inflows at $79B. The contracted-rate reset management flagged didn't visibly break the algorithm — and management confirmed on the call that the tier has stepped up as of the end of Q1, meaning the higher rate begins flowing through in Q2.
Resolved positively
FY2026 revenue framework signaling — Not resolved. Management did not introduce FY2026 divisional revenue guidance with the Q1 FY2026 print; the FY2026 framework remains opex and tax-rate only. The silence persisted past Investor Day and the Q1 print. Either the visibility caution is more entrenched than the bullish tone implies, or management is content to let the +14% Q1 revenue print speak.
Continue monitoring
FCM professional-services variability — Resolved positively. FCM revenue grew 21% in Q1 FY2026 with FCMT ARR disclosed at $344M, +17% YoY, and net revenue retention of 110%. Management confirmed the H2 FY2025 enterprise implementation cadence is converting on the timeline flagged, while noting the Q4 FY2025 professional-services sequential lift was not expected to repeat in H1 2026 — a calibration that the print delivered cleanly.
Resolved positively
Tax-rate ceiling — Not resolved this quarter. Management maintained the FY2026 ceiling at 24.5% with no tightening, citing structural reasons in the press release ("maintaining its 2026 non-GAAP tax rate guidance"). The Q3 FY2025 precedent of mid-year ceiling tightening did not repeat.
Continue monitoring
Agentic AI revenue attribution — Resolved positively on adoption metrics, not yet on revenue attribution. Management disclosed 500+ Verafin agentic AI clients (+40% since Investor Day) and $9T+ AUM with AI-ready data — quantified adoption that the Q4 watch flagged as still missing. What remains undisclosed is agentic-AI ARR, attach rates, or per-client pricing. On the Q&A, Friedman noted some AI products are charged for explicitly while others are embedded into renewal value conversations — the operating-model framing is now backed by client counts; the revenue attribution layer is still implied rather than disclosed.
Continue monitoring
ATS optionality — Not resolved. Neither the press release nor the Q&A surfaced ATS filing activity, off-exchange venue M&A, or SEC framework progress this quarter. The regulatory door status is opaque.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 opex step-up magnitude: management flagged the higher Q2 expense growth rate explicitly. Watch whether the Q2 print stays within the trajectory implied by the new $2.485–$2.545B FY range or whether the comp-cycle bulge forces another mid-year raise. A second raise would meaningfully erode the three-point Solutions-vs-opex gap framework.

ARR organic sustaining at 12%+: the inflection from 9% → 10% → 12% over three quarters is the cleanest momentum signal in the print. Watch whether Q2 holds 12%+ or whether the Q1 acceleration was front-loaded by enterprise FY2025 signings converting in bulk.

Index Q2 capture step-up confirmation: management confirmed the contracted-rate tier stepped up at end of Q1, with the higher rate flowing through Q2. Watch the Q2 Index revenue print for the implied uplift — if it doesn't arrive, the FY2026 Index trajectory needs re-underwriting.

FY2026 divisional revenue framework: with Q1 in hand and Investor Day passed, watch whether the Q2 print finally introduces divisional revenue commentary or whether management continues to withhold it. Sustained silence at this point implies more visibility caution than the tone supports.

Agentic AI revenue attribution disclosure: 500+ clients is the adoption metric. The next disclosure layer — pricing, attach rate, contribution to FCM ARR growth — would convert the operating-model narrative into a measurable revenue stream. Watch whether this surfaces in Q2 prepared remarks.

Tokenization first-trade milestone: DCCC working toward first trade before end of 2026. Watch for dated counterparty commitments, regulatory engagement updates, and any first listed tokenized issuer announcement.

Sources

  1. Nasdaq, Inc. Q1 FY2026 press release (Exhibit 99.1, SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526171829/d148002dex991.htm

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.