NDAQ · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Nasdaq, Inc.

Reported October 21, 2025

30-second summary

Revenue grew 15% YoY to $1.32B, with Solutions (Capital Access Platforms + Financial Technology) crossing $1B in a quarter for the first time and ARR clearing $3B at 9% organic growth — a third consecutive quarter at that pace, not the re-acceleration the bull case needed. The tax-rate guide came down 100bps at the ceiling (a real EPS positive), while opex floor was nudged up $10M — modest but worth flagging. FCMT grew 22% revenue / 18% ARR, but the CFO told the buy side the subdivision is now expected to finish 2025 just below its medium-term range, with enterprise implementation timing creating the lag — a softer FY framing that anchors recovery to Q4 and 2026.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$0.88

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$1.31B

+15.0% YoY

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

44.5%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.31B	+15.0%	$1.31B	+0.7%
EPS	$0.88	—	$0.85	+3.5%
Operating margin	44.5%	—	55.0%	-1050bps

Guidance

FY2025 tax rate guidance lowered 100 bps (improving EPS outlook), while operating expense floor raised $10M (modest headwind).

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP Operating Expense	FY 2025	$2,295 million to $2,335 million	$2,305 million to $2,335 million	+$10M low end (widened range upward)	Raised
Non-GAAP Tax Rate	FY 2025	22.5% to 24.5%	22.5% to 23.5%	-100 bps ceiling (narrowed and lowered upper bound)	Lowered

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Capital Access Platforms	$0.546B	+9.0%
Financial Technology	$0.457B	+13.0%
Market Services (net)	$0.303B	+13.0%
Data and Listing Services	$0.204B	+6.0%
Index	$0.206B	+13.0%
Financial Crime Management Technology	$0.084B	+22.0%
Regulatory Technology	$0.109B	+9.0%
Capital Markets Technology	$0.264B	+12.0%

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR)	$3.007 billion
ARR Growth (YoY organic)	9%
SaaS ARR as % of Total ARR	38%
Financial Technology ARR	$1.662 billion
Capital Access Platforms ARR	$1.345 billion
Index ETP AUM	$829 billion
Index TTM Net Inflows	$91 billion
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	56%

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 Adenza-as-growth-engine and capital optionality unlock → Q3 milestone validation (Solutions >$1B, ARR >$3B) paired with a sober FCMT FY recalibration.

The Q&A reveals a more measured posture than Q2's expansive "deleveraging done, optionality unlocked" framing. Q2 management was pushing the offense — record cross-sells, AI-product-shipping, leverage target cleared 16 months early. Q3 management spent considerable time on Verafin mechanics, with the CFO explicitly stating the business is now expected to finish the year "just below the range" of its medium-term outlook and acknowledging enterprise implementation creates "variable quarter-to-quarter ARR growth" — language that wasn't in last quarter's vocabulary.

On digital assets and tokenization, the tone shifted from Q2's "picks-and-shovels infrastructure pull" abstraction to concrete architectural detail in Q3. Management walked through DTCC's dual settlement paths, order-by-order tokenization flagging, and the fact that NDAQ is tokenizing underlying equity (not derivatives) — language that signals the regulatory filing has moved development out of conceptual into engineering. The "walk-run approach, maintaining existing settlement cycles initially" phrasing is new and notably cautious.

On opex, the Q3 message — "three-percentage-point gap between solutions and OPEX growth maintained" with all of 24/5 trading and tokenization "embedded in existing guidance" — is the same discipline message as Q2, but the $10M floor raise undercuts it slightly. Management is asking investors to trust the framework while nudging the number.

On FCMT specifically, the answer to UBS was the most candid moment: "three times more enterprise clients signed in 2025 vs. 2024" but "implementation phase creating variable quarter-to-quarter ARR growth," paired with the CFO's "just below the range" FY framing. This is management telling the buy side directly that the Q2 enterprise deal momentum will not show up linearly in ARR in 2025.

Q&A highlights

Michael Cho · JPMorgan

What areas does NASDAQ see propensity for higher growth in digital assets and crypto across its various businesses? Is there a broader approach to frame the opportunity as the digital ecosystem develops?

NASDAQ sees fintech solutions as highly relevant as digital assets expand, including trade surveillance technology specific to crypto, collateral management via blockchain POC, index products with crypto assets, and listing of crypto ETFs. In market operations, NASDAQ is encouraged by SEC-CFTC cooperation on regulatory landscape but wants to understand it first before expanding. Views opportunity as broad-based across entire franchise.

Trade surveillance technology specific to crypto assets developedPOC completed with digital asset players on blockchain-based collateral managementIndex products launched with crypto assetsListing exchange for iBit and other crypto index ETFs

Michael Cypress · Morgan Stanley

How does NASDAQ envision tokenized securities trading working mechanically? What are key issues and hurdles? What are most compelling use cases and who mints tokens?

Investors flag orders on order-by-order basis to settle shares in tokenized form into digital wallets. DTCC developing two settlement paths (normal or digital wallet). Working with multiple blockchains. Benefits include collateral mobility, reduced settlement risk, capital efficiencies, and seamless payment infrastructure. Using walk-run approach, maintaining existing settlement cycles initially. Tokenizing underlying equity itself, not derivatives.

Order-by-order tokenization flagging mechanismDTCC developing dual settlement pathsMultiple blockchain options being evaluatedSettlement cycles unchanged in initial phase

Benjamin Budish · Barclays

Given revenue momentum, what are early thoughts on pace of OPEX spending going into 2026? How do initiatives like tokenized equities and 24/5 exchange operations fit into guidance?

OPEX trajectory is consistent with medium-term outlook showing 3-percentage-point gap between solutions and OPEX growth. Strong solutions revenue (double-digit) driving some volume-related expenses. All major initiatives including 24/5 trading and tokenization are embedded in existing guidance. Investment efficiency program helping fund Horizon 1 and Horizon 2 opportunities while maintaining core efficiency.

Three-percentage-point gap between solutions and OPEX growth maintainedDouble-digit solutions revenue for three consecutive quarters24/5 trading investment embedded in guidance$150 million+ in efficiency program savings realized

Alex Cram · UBS

What is driving slower-than-expected performance in financial crime business and what gives confidence for Q4 acceleration? Any update on European bank POC?

Anti-financial crime has three growth pillars: SMB space (strong, with BioCatch partnership expansion), enterprise (implementation phase with 3x more client signings year-to-date requiring time to convert to ARR), and international expansion (early-stage, encouraged by POC results with several European clients engaged but noting long sales cycles). BioCatch partnership will support international expansion. Improving trajectory expected by year-end and into 2026.

Three times more enterprise clients signed in 2025 vs. 2024Implementation phase creating variable quarter-to-quarter ARR growthSMB space showing robust sales and strong engagementMultiple European clients engaged from POC

Eli Abboud · Bank of America

Is BioCatch partnership a one-off or strategic adjustment? Could Verifin become a platform provider rather than vendor, allowing other ecosystem firms access?

BioCatch is strategic partnership demonstrating Verifin's platform architecture and API-driven design. BioCatch brings pre-transaction behavioral intelligence complementing NASDAQ's at/after-transaction analytics, creating complete fraud solution. Partnership simplifies workflows for resource-constrained SMBs. First of multiple planned partnership opportunities. Verifin architecturally positioned as platform with modern APIs supporting ecosystem integrations.

Verifin architecturally designed as platform with modern API layersBioCatch integration seamless, demonstrates platform capabilityBioCatch is scale global business with large international client basePartnership integrates pre-transaction signals with post-transaction analytics

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Professional services revenue inflection — Not directly disclosed in segment detail; the Capital Markets Tech subline grew 12% organic (within FinTech's +13% organic), broadly consistent with the "stabilizing into Q4" narrative from last quarter, but the specific professional-services line item wasn't called out on the print. Management's Q4/2026 guide was reaffirmed via Budish's exchange.

Continue monitoring

FCMT enterprise tier deal closures — Resolved with a hedge. FCMT grew 22% revenue / 18% ARR, but management explicitly told UBS that implementation timing is creating "variable quarter-to-quarter ARR growth" and the CFO told the buy side FCMT will finish 2025 "just below the range" of its medium-term outlook. "Three times more enterprise clients signed in 2025 vs. 2024" will convert on a lag, not linearly.

Resolved negatively

Capital deployment posture — Press release does not disclose new buyback authorization or M&A action. With leverage cleared in Q2, the absence of an announcement this quarter is itself a tell — either something larger is being prepared or management is content with the current pace.

Continue monitoring

ARR organic growth trajectory — Organic ARR growth held at 9%, a third consecutive quarter at that level per the CFO. No re-acceleration toward 10%+ despite FCMT deal momentum. The gap to reported ARR growth has narrowed (total ARR $3.007B is the milestone) but the organic line did not inflect.

Resolved negatively

Index net inflows — TTM net inflows rose to $91B from $88B in Q2, with AUM up to $829B from $745B. The inflow machine sustained into Q3 despite a calmer volatility regime.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

FCMT ARR conversion in Q4: management staked the "improving trajectory" narrative on Q4 and 2026 and explicitly set FY2025 expectations "just below the range." Watch whether ARR re-accelerates above 18% or whether the enterprise implementation lag extends into 2026, which would force a re-rating of the FinTech growth algorithm.

Organic ARR breakout: 9% organic has now held for three consecutive quarters. Watch whether Q4 prints 10%+ — without that, the cross-sell-and-FCMT compounding story loses a quarter of credibility.

Capital deployment announcement: leverage was cleared in Q2 and Q3 passed without action. The longer the silence, the higher the probability of a larger M&A signal in Q4 or early 2026. Watch the buyback line on the cash-flow statement.

2026 opex framework: management's "three-point gap" rule will be tested when FY2026 guide arrives. Watch whether the framework holds or whether 24/5 trading and tokenization investment forces a narrower gap.

Tokenization regulatory progress: NDAQ has filed and disclosed architecture detail. Watch for SEC engagement updates, DTCC dual-path go-live timing, and any first listed tokenized issuer.

Sources

Nasdaq, Inc. Q3 2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1, SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312525244271/d46597dex991.htm
Nasdaq Q3 2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, UBS, Jefferies)

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