NEM · Q2 2026 Earnings

Neutral

Newmont

Reported July 23, 2026

30-second summary

Newmont printed record-second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2B at a $1,621/oz by-product AISC, with attributable gold production of 1,293 koz essentially flat QoQ (-1%) despite a Cadia seismic-event drag, and reaffirmed every line of the FY2026 guidance table. Management guided Q3 production "broadly in line" with Q2 (~1,293 koz) with unit costs stepping up on higher sustaining capex, partially offset by higher co-product volumes — implying a modest ~7% Q4-over-Q3 production step to hit the 5,260 koz FY midpoint. H1 YTD by-product CAS of $788/oz and AISC of $1,321/oz are both tracking well below the $1,055 and $1,680 FY marks, giving management substantial cushion into a cost-heavier H2.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$2.10

-1.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$6.12B

+15.1% YoY

-3.9% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$2.21B

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$6.12B	$5.32B	+15.1%	$7.31B	-16.3%
EPS	$2.10	$1.43	+46.9%	$2.90	-27.6%
Free cash flow	$2.21B	$1.71B	+28.9%	$3.14B	-29.8%

Guidance

Newmont reaffirms full-year FY2026 production and cost guidance despite Q2 YoY production decline of -12.5%; forward guidance signals flat Q3 production and cost inflation ahead.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Attributable Gold Production	Q2 FY2026	23% of total attributable production	1,209 koz (Q2 2026 actual)	in-line with prior guide (23% of FY total consistent with actuals)	Met
Gold By-Product AISC	Q2 FY2026	Expected to be notably higher than Q1 2026	$1,621 per ounce	in-line (higher than Q1 as guided)	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Attributable Gold Production	Q3 FY2026	broadly in line with second quarter production	—
Unit Costs	Q3 FY2026	Expected to increase in Q3 primarily due to higher sustaining capital spend	—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Attributable Gold Production (5,260 koz (±5%)), Gold By-Product CAS ($1,055/oz (±5%)), Gold By-Product AISC ($1,680/oz (±5%)), Sustaining Capital ($1,950 million), Development Capital ($1,400 million)

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Gold By-Product AISC	$1,621 per ounce	—	—
Gold By-Product CAS	$1,043 per ounce	—	—
Adjusted EBITDA	$3.8 billion	—	—
Free Cash Flow	$2.2 billion	—	—
Total Liquidity	$13.0 billion	—	—
Net Cash Position	$3.4 billion	—	—
Dividend Per Share	$0.26	—	—
Share Repurchases (Since Last Call)	$1.7 billion	—	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; the analysis below is drawn from the press-release disclosure and quantitative shifts against prior quarters' guidance and commentary.

The Q2 release is materially more constructive in tone than Q1's. CEO Viljoen frames the quarter as "another quarter of strong operational and financial performance" with production "primarily from Newmont's managed operations" and explicitly flags "record second quarter free cash flow." The full 2026 guidance table — including all co-product and consolidated-expense lines — is reprinted in the release and reaffirmed at ±5%, with the phrase "year-to-date costs tracking well below Newmont's full year cost guidance" doing meaningful work.

The H2 shape has been clarified rather than pushed. The seasonality table (49% H1 / 51% H2 for production, 42/58 for sustaining capex, 37/63 for development capex) is unchanged from the Q1 disclosure. Third-quarter commentary explicitly says production is weighted toward Q4 across several managed operations and calls out Boddington, Tanami, Lihir, Cerro Negro and Brucejack as H2 drivers, with Yanacocha, Ahafo South and Merian as offsets — a more granular breakdown than Q1 provided.

The cost-build story has hardened from qualitative to sequenced but with a specific offset named. Q1 guided Q2 costs "notably higher" without qualification; that landed at $1,621. This quarter Q3 costs are guided to "increase in the third quarter primarily due to higher sustaining capital spend, which should be partially offset by higher co-product volumes, notably silver at Peñasquito." Naming the offset asset is new — and with H1 AISC of $1,321 already $359 below the FY guide, the arithmetic room for a Q3 step-up is large.

The capital-returns cadence is measured, not accelerating. $1.7B repurchased since the April earnings call under the refreshed $6.0B authorization leaves $4.3B remaining — approximately 28% consumed in a quarter, a pace consistent with (not ahead of) the framework. Management explicitly signaled it "intends to request additional approval from its Board of Directors as the current authorization approaches completion" — a routine, telegraphed rhythm rather than an accelerating one.

Cadia is the one operational disclosure that meaningfully changed: the release states "Operations at Cadia returned to normal levels as of mid-June after recovery from the seismic events." Q2 Cadia production of 34 koz (vs Q1 94 koz) reflects the downtime; the mid-June normalization sets up a Q3 sequential recovery that supports the "broadly in line with Q2" total-portfolio guide despite headwinds elsewhere.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 AISC print against the "notably higher" guide — $1,621/oz, inside the FY $1,680 guide, with H1 YTD $1,321 tracking $359 below the FY mark. Q3 is guided higher again but with a named co-product offset (silver at Peñasquito). Status: Resolved constructively

Cadia recovery checkpoint — Explicit disclosure: "Operations at Cadia returned to normal levels as of mid-June after recovery from the seismic events." Cadia Q2 production of 34 koz reflects the downtime; the return-to-normal timing sets up a Q3 sequential lift. Status: Resolved

Nevada Gold Mines resolution language — No update in the press release. NGM production +2% QoQ / +0.4% YoY (240 koz); the asset is running steadily but the legal posture was not addressed.

Continue monitoring

2027 production floor — Not disclosed. The Q4-25 promise of an end-of-year 2027 framework refresh has not been advanced at Q2; management continues to reaffirm the 2026 guide without extending forward visibility.

Continue monitoring

Buyback execution pace under the new $6.0B authorization — $1.7B repurchased since the April refresh; $4.3B remains (~28% consumed). Management flagged it will request additional Board approval as the authorization approaches completion — a telegraphed, disciplined cadence. Status: Resolved constructively

Ghana royalty and energy cost flow-through — Called out qualitatively: Q2 CAS was impacted by "a full quarter of the increased royalties in Ghana and higher diesel prices," partially offset by higher copper pricing. With Q2 AISC landing inside the FY guide and H1 YTD well below, the cost pressures are being absorbed within the guide envelope. Status: Resolved constructively

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 AISC print against "expected to increase": with H1 YTD $1,321 vs FY guide $1,680, the arithmetic cushion is unusually large. Watch whether the named co-product offset (silver at Peñasquito) actually materializes in Q3.

Q4 production math: if Q3 lands at ~1,293 koz as guided, Q4 needs ~1,390 koz to hit the FY 5,260 midpoint — a ~7% sequential step, well within normal ramp cadence for the H2-weighted assets named (Boddington, Tanami, Lihir, Cerro Negro, Brucejack).

Cadia post-normalization run-rate: Q3 will be the first full quarter of post-seismic operation. Watch whether Cadia gold and copper volumes recover toward Q1-26 levels (94 koz gold, 21 kt copper) or reset lower.

Buyback authorization refresh timing: at the current ~$1.7B/quarter pace against $4.3B remaining, the authorization runs out around year-end. Watch for the telegraphed Board request in Q3 or Q4 commentary.

Nevada Gold Mines disclosure: the legal posture went un-addressed on the Q2 print. If Q3 also stays silent, the market has to infer from operating performance alone.

2027 anchor: the Q4-25 promise of "better guidance towards the end of this year" is now one quarter closer. Watch whether Q3 begins to quantify the forward path or extends the verbal-only posture into 2027.

Sources

Newmont Q2 2026 Earnings Release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000034/newmontq22026earningsrelea.htm
Newmont Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Tapebrief Q1 2026 brief (prior forward guidance baseline).
Newmont Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Tapebrief Q4 2025 brief (FY2026 guidance baseline).

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