Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

NEM · Q3 2025 Earnings

Newmont

Reported October 23, 2025

30-second summary

Newmont generated $1.57B of free cash flow on a $3,539/oz realized gold price, taking YTD FCF to $4.49B — already an annual record with Q4 still to come. Management cut four FY25 cost lines totaling $360M (sustaining capex $150M, development capex $50M, exploration & advanced projects $75M, G&A $85M), plus a $45M interest expense reduction and a $125M reclamation accretion improvement — $530M of total FY25 P&L and capital improvement — while quietly withdrawing the prior >$3.0B divestiture proceeds target. The story is no longer "rationalization complete" — it's "cost-out flows to the bottom line even as royalties and profit-sharing rise on $3,500+ gold."

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.71

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$5.52B

+20.0% YoY

Free cash flow

Q3 FY2025

$1.57B

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$5.52B	+20.0%	$5.32B	+3.9%
EPS	$1.71	—	$1.43	+19.6%
Free cash flow	$1.57B	—	$1.71B	-8.1%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Attributable Gold Production	Q3 FY2025	Q3 expected relatively in line with Q2	1,421 koz	in-line	Met
Gold Co-Product CAS	Q3 FY2025	Q3 expected similar to Q2	$1,185/oz	in-line	Met
Gold Co-Product AISC	Q3 FY2025	Q3 expected slightly higher than full year guidance ($1,630/oz)	$1,566/oz	in-line	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Attributable Gold Production	Q4 FY2025	1,415 koz	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Sustaining Capital	FY2025	$1,875 million	$1,725 million	-$150 million (-8.0%)	Lowered
Development Capital	FY2025	$1,330 million	$1,280 million	-$50 million (-3.8%)	Lowered
Exploration & Advanced Projects	FY2025	$525 million	$450 million	-$75 million (-14.3%)	Lowered
General & Administrative	FY2025	$475 million	$390 million	-$85 million (-17.9%)	Lowered
Interest Expense	FY2025	$300 million	$255 million	-$45 million (-15.0%)	Lowered
Adjusted Tax Rate	FY2025	34%	33%	-1 percentage point	Lowered
Depreciation & Amortization	FY2025	$2,600 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Reclamation and Remediation Accretion	FY2025	$475 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Reclamation Spend	FY2025	$800 million, including $600 million for Yanacocha water treatment plants	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Divestiture Program Proceeds	FY2025	More than $3.0 billion in after-tax cash proceeds expected	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Attributable Gold Production	1,421 koz
Average Realized Gold Price	$3,539/oz
Gold Co-Product CAS	$1,185/oz
Gold By-Product CAS	$831/oz
Gold Co-Product AISC	$1,566/oz
Gold By-Product AISC	$1,303/oz
Adjusted EBITDA	$3.309 billion
Free Cash Flow	$1.571 billion

Management tone

Q1 prior → Q2 "Rationalization complete, pivot to buybacks" → Q3 "Cost-out flows to bottom line despite royalty pressure"

The rationalization-is-done framing from last quarter has now been operationalized into hard FY guidance cuts. Two quarters ago the language was about completing divestitures; last quarter it was about applying operating capability across managed assets; this quarter it shows up as $360M of cost guidance reductions across four lines, a $125M reclamation accretion improvement, a $45M interest expense cut, and a 100bps tax-rate cut. The quote that anchors the shift: "our continued focus on cost discipline and productivity has enabled us to offset higher costs from profit sharing agreements, production taxes and royalties, resulting from the stronger gold price environment." The signal: management is willing to take credit for cost discipline only after it has banked the savings, not before — which makes the FY revision more credible than a typical "raised guidance" pattern.

Last quarter management pivoted hard to buybacks and effectively deprioritized M&A; this quarter the capital-allocation language repeated five times across the call but added a deliberate brake on 2026 enthusiasm. The anchor: "if elevated gold prices persist into next year, increased profit sharing, royalties and production taxes could offset a significant portion of the benefits." That is management pre-emptively setting the expectation that 2026 will not be a linear extrapolation of $3,500 gold × current cost base, and that the cost-savings tailwind that powered 2025 guide cuts will partly disappear into government and partner pockets. It is also a justification — placed in advance — for why 2026 buyback pace may not accelerate proportional to gold price.

The 2026 production framing has tightened. Last quarter the guide was "5.9 Moz +/-5%, on track"; this quarter it is "gold production from our managed operations is expected to be within the same guidance range provided for 2025, but toward the lower end, due to planned mine sequence." That is a verbal guide-down for next year embedded in this quarter's tone, before the formal February 2026 disclosure. Combined with Cadia tailings capex pressure in 2026 flagged in risks, the multi-quarter arc is: portfolio is mature, cash flow is the story, growth is not.

The divestiture line has gone quiet. Two quarters of "$3.0B+ in after-tax proceeds expected" disclosure has been replaced by a single retrospective claim. Management is no longer underwriting a forward divestiture number, suggesting the program is closing rather than continuing — consistent with last quarter's "rationalization largely complete" framing, but with the forward-looking disclosure now formally retired.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Record free cash flow generation ($4.5B YTD, all-time annual record with Q4 remaining)Cost discipline offsetting gold-price-driven royalty and profit-sharing increasesSuccessful completion of strategic divestitures and asset optimizationDecentralized organizational structure with flattened leadership to enhance execution speedProject pipeline advancement (AHAFO North commercial production, Tanami 2, Cadia PC2-3 on track)Balanced capital allocation: balance sheet strength, reinvestment, shareholder returns through disciplined buybacks

Risks management surfaced:

Tailings capacity constraints at Cadia requiring elevated capital spend in 2026Mining incident at Red Crisp project (though safely resolved; investigation learnings being applied)Planned mine sequencing creating production decline at AHAFO South, Yanacocha, Penésquito, and Cadia in 2026Elevated gold prices driving higher profit-sharing, royalties, and production taxes that could offset cost savings benefits in 2026Dependence on Barrick for Nevada Gold Mines guidance and Four Mile feasibility study timing (2029)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Pace and price of buybacks — $550M of share repurchases since the last earnings call (including $179M settled in October); $2.1B executed YTD; $2.7B remains under the $6.0B authorization. Management reiterated the unchanged three-pillar capital allocation framework and "disciplined and balanced" approach despite record prices.

Resolved positively

Q3 free cash flow magnitude — FCF came in at $1.57B, well above the $1.0B floor implied by last quarter's warnings of higher capex and cash taxes. YTD $4.49B is already an annual record; FY tracking comfortably above $5B.

Resolved positively

Cadia grades through BC2-to-new-panel-cave transition — Cadia production fell 15.7% YoY consistent with the planned panel-cave transition; management cited tailings capacity work at Cadia requiring elevated capital spend in 2026 but did not flag any negative geological reconciliation. PC2-3 noted as on track.

Continue monitoring

Red Chris outcome and cost impact — Management referenced the July mining incident at Red Chris (three teammates safely recovered; investigation learnings being applied). Feasibility study remains on track for a proposal to the board around mid-2026; no quantified capex or production disruption was disclosed.

Continue monitoring

AISC trajectory — Q3 AISC came in at $1,566/oz, well below the $1,630 FY guide rather than slightly above as previously telegraphed. Q4 guide of $1,670/oz brings FY in line with $1,630.

Resolved positively

Penasquito Q4 metal mix — Management confirmed the planned shift toward lower gold proportion and higher silver/lead/zinc as the site transitions into the next phase at the Penasco pit; Q4 production guide of 1,415 koz is essentially flat with Q3.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

February 2026 formal guidance: management has verbally telegraphed 2026 managed-portfolio production "at the lower end" of the 2025 range (~4.2 Moz managed midpoint), plus elevated Cadia tailings capex. Watch whether the formal print stays inside that band or breaks below.

2026 cost-savings retention: management warned that profit sharing, royalties, and production taxes could "offset a significant portion" of cost savings if gold stays elevated. Watch whether AISC guidance for 2026 stays at or below the implied $1,670 Q4 run-rate, or steps materially higher.

Divestiture line item resurfacing or not: the >$3.0B FY25 divestiture proceeds line was withdrawn. Watch whether February guidance reintroduces a forward divestiture number (signaling continued portfolio churn) or formally closes the program.

Q4 free cash flow against $4.49B YTD base: Q4 sustaining capex steps up to $450M and development capex to $350M, with continued Yanacocha water treatment construction spend and accrued severance payments. A sub-$1.0B Q4 FCF print would still deliver $5.5B+ FY; a $1.2B+ print would push FY toward $5.7B and reset the buyback ceiling.

Barrick disclosure timing on Nevada Gold Mines and Four Mile: management is on record waiting for Barrick on both the operating guide and Four Mile feasibility (2029). Watch for any forced disclosure or write-down trigger that compresses NEM's 38.5% attributable share.

Ahafo and Lihir production stabilization: Ahafo fell ~32% YoY in Q3 on planned sequencing (Subika open pit ended); Lihir held flat YoY but stepped down QoQ on planned shutdowns. Watch whether Q4 prints reverse, hold, or extend the decline — relevant to whether 2026's "lower end" framing is conservative or already optimistic.

Sources

Newmont Q3 2025 Earnings Release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472725000044/newmontq32025earningsrelea.htm
Newmont Q2 2025 Earnings Release (prior guidance baseline).

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