NI · Q1 2026 Earnings
BullishNiSource
Reported May 6, 2026
30-second summary
NiSource beat consensus on Q1 EPS ($1.06 vs. $1.05), reaffirmed FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 (~8% YoY midpoint growth), and — the actual news — raised the 2026–2033 consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR 100bps to 9–10%, with management explicitly tracking toward the high end through 2030. New 2030 ($0.25–$0.35) and 2033 ($0.40–$0.60) GenCo EPS targets were introduced, the consolidated plan was enhanced by $7.6B in GenCo and data-center capital, and the pipeline now stands at ~4 GW signed + 3 GW in strategic negotiations + ~2 GW developing. This is the quarter where GenCo stopped being a single-contract reframe and started compounding.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q1 FY2026
$1.06
+0.9% vs est.
Key financials
Q1 FY2026| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | YoY | Q3 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.06 | — | $0.19 | +457.9% |
Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance while raising multi-year CAGR to 9%-10% (from 8%-9%), with new 2030/2033 GENCO EPS targets reflecting data center partnership upside.
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 GENCO EPS | FY2030 | 25-35 cents per share | — |
| 2033 GENCO EPS | FY2033 | 40-60 cents per share | — |
Changes to prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | New guide | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-2033 Consolidated Adjusted EPS CAGR | FY2033 | 8%-9% | 9%-10% | +1 percentage point at both low and high end | Raised |
Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-GAAP Consolidated Adjusted EPS ($2.02-$2.07), Non-GAAP Consolidated Adjusted EPS ($2.02-$2.07)
Other KPIs
Q1 FY2026| Segment | Q1 FY2026 |
|---|---|
| Natural Gas Customers | 3.3 million |
| Electric Customers | 500,000 |
| GenCo Customer Value - Alphabet and Amazon Collaboration | $1.4 billion |
| 2026-2033 Consolidated Adjusted EPS CAGR Guidance | 9%-10% |
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EPS Guidance | $2.02-$2.07 |
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EPS Growth (Midpoint) | ~8% YoY |
Management tone
Q2 narrow-the-band utility → Q3 GenCo reframe → Q1 FY2026 GenCo compounding.
Three quarters ago NiSource was narrowing a guidance band within a standard regulated-utility framework. Last quarter it executed a single $6–7B data center contract and built an 8–9% consolidated CAGR around it. This quarter the language shifted again — from "we have a contract" to "we have a platform with a queue." Anchor quote: "Even after securing approximately 800 megawatts of additional capacity to serve Alphabet and Amazon, demand remains robust with three gigawatts of strategic negotiations and line of sight to approximately two gigawatts of developing opportunities." The signal: GenCo is no longer being defended as an experiment; it is being prosecuted as a repeatable model.
The earnings disclosure framework has tightened to layered 2030/2033 subsidiary targets — discrete 2030 ($0.25–$0.35) and 2033 ($0.40–$0.60) GenCo EPS bands, providing a nearer-term checkpoint alongside the long-dated number. Anchor quote: "We have increased our long-term guidance by 100 basis points and expect to deliver 9% to 10% consolidated adjusted EPS compound annual growth through 2033 with performance tracking toward the high end of that range through 2030." This is management volunteering accountability against intermediate milestones, not the usual utility move of pushing all the upside into a far-dated CAGR.
Customer-savings rhetoric has hardened from constraint-management into competitive advantage. Q3 framed the $1B NIPSCO flowback as the mechanism that made IURC approval underwritable. This quarter the savings number expanded to $1.4B (up to $124/year per residential customer) and was framed as the reason regulators and customers want more deals. Anchor quote: "By leveraging the Genco regulatory model, our agreements with Alphabet and Amazon are expected to deliver annual savings up to $124 per year for residential customers, offering greater benefits that now accelerate a timeline than initially forecasted." The shift: affordability is now an offense, not defense.
Pipeline confidence remains paired with stakeholder-sensitive hedging. Management still says "we believe there is a well-defined path for scaling through sustainable growth, and we are committed to pursuing it in a thoughtful and differentiated manner." The bullish posture is real, but the verbal discipline around regulatory and community optics has not relaxed — a sign management has internalized the risk that aggressive scaling rhetoric draws regulatory friction.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Bill Apicelli · UBS
How does the earnings benefit scale with the GENCO model as more megawatts are added? Is accretion linear or does it improve with scale? Additionally, how is the increased customer benefits ($1.4 billion) resonating with regulators and stakeholders?
Earnings benefit is not linear but project-specific, driven by customer needs and timing. Management believes the GENCO model is well-received by regulators and customers due to $1.4 billion in customer benefits ($124/year per customer), job creation in Indiana, and the competitive advantage of the model. Each deal will have bespoke economics that will be disclosed upon announcement.
Julianne DeMolin-Smith · Jefferies
How should earnings composition be bifurcated between rate base and contracted generation? Can the company own more generation over time? Could ownership of the 800 MW resource pool and beyond represent compounding growth beyond 2030-2033?
Management will own a significant amount of generation under the GENCO model, with the pool designed to serve both 3,000 MW and 300 MW increments. The company focuses on contracted generation with no commodity risk. Ownership isn't required for value creation; the model monetizes capacity attributes to benefit both retail customers ($1.4B savings) and shareholders. Accretion/dilution guidance applies regardless of ownership structure.
Steve Fleischman · Wolf Research
How much additional 'time to power' (speed to market) can the company feasibly deliver in the next few years? Is the 9 GW total a limit on regional opportunity or could it be larger?
Management has not disclosed exact amounts of additional speed-to-power capacity but emphasizes active engagement in commercial supply chain and focus on capabilities from site development through execution. The 9 GW is not viewed as a limit but rather what management is disciplined and methodical about pursuing. Indiana's geography, proximity to Chicago, transmission backbone, and gas supply make it a strong territory for development beyond the 9 GW pipeline.
Andrew Cadavian · Wells Fargo
What specific discussions with customers allowed confidence to increase the strategic negotiations bucket from 1-3 GW to 3 GW? With only $600M CapEx for 1 GW of incremental hyperscaler load, how does the company earn on capacity purchases and how does it flow through to earnings?
Management cites approximately 4 GW of signed data center capacity, multiple ongoing counterparty engagements, strong demand, and the compelling GENCO model as supporting confidence in 3 GW strategic negotiations. On capacity purchases: earnings are calculated by netting total generation capacity, generation costs, and appropriate risk-adjusted returns. Mix includes both capacity purchases and constructed assets; net result drives GENCO guidance.
Nick Amiguchi · Evercore ISI
For the 2 GW of developing opportunities in the pipeline (targeting COD by 2035), how quickly must they be moved into signed capacity to actually be COD'd by 2035? Is the 3-year 9%-10% growth guidance inclusive of the 3 GW in strategic negotiations?
Management notes there is significant demand but no set timeline for when the 2 GW developing opportunities move into strategic negotiations. The timeline remains flexible depending on resources, equipment, and capacity. Management will update which gigawatts are in which pipeline bucket. Confirmed: the 9%-10% growth guidance includes only signed customer contracts (Amazon and Alphabet), NOT the 3 GW in strategic negotiations.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
IURC / regulatory ruling on the Amazon contract expansion, expected June 2026 — the gating event for the 400+ MW expansion and site work; a delay would test the accelerated-timeline narrative
Whether any of the 3 GW in strategic negotiations converts to signed contracts, and if so, whether management raises the 2030/2033 GenCo EPS bands (the $0.25–$0.35 / $0.40–$0.60 ranges explicitly exclude this pipeline)
Whether management formally moves the consolidated CAGR framing from "tracking high end through 2030" to "high end" — a small verbal shift that would imply another implicit raise
Q2 EPS pacing against the $2.02–$2.07 band; given Q1 came in at $1.06, watch whether YTD EPS through Q2 keeps the upper-half-of-band trajectory intact
Equity issuance cadence — any expansion above the $400–600M annual run-rate disclosed this quarter would signal GenCo financing leaning harder on the parent than the Blackstone NCI structure implied
EPC construction and long-lead equipment delivery progress at the original 2.4 GW Indiana project, where execution risk remains the largest near-term threat to the 2032 ramp
Sources
- NiSource Q1 2026 earnings press release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed May 6, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111711/000111171126000044/ni-ex991_20260331.htm
- NiSource Q1 2026 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A
- NiSource Q3 2025 earnings press release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed October 29, 2025
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