tapebrief
NKE · Q3 2026

NKE · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Nike, Inc.

Reported June 30, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 FY2026 revenue was -1% reported / -4% currency-neutral to $11.0B, versus a guide of down 2% to 4% (cn basis); on a cn basis the print landed at the low end of the guide, with reported aided by FX. Gross margin of 49.2% included an approximately 900bps benefit from the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs ($986M); underlying gross margin was ~40.3%, essentially in line with the down-25-to-75bps sequential guide off Q3's 40.2%. GAAP EPS of $0.72 included a $0.52 IEEPA recovery benefit — underlying EPS ~$0.20 vs. $0.13 consensus is a modest beat, not the 454% headline. Greater China printed -12% reported / -17% cn versus a ~-20% guide. Management withheld both Q1 FY2027 and FY2027 numerical guidance, deferring to the fall investor day — the sixth consecutive quarter without a multi-quarter quantitative anchor, and the first time the next-quarter cadence itself has been broken.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$0.72

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$11.00B

-1.0% YoY

+1.4% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

49.2%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

12.0%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026
MetricQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$11.00B$11.10B-0.9%$11.28B-2.5%
EPS$0.72$0.14+414.3%$0.35+105.7%
Gross margin49.2%40.3%+890bps40.2%+900bps
Operating margin12.0%2.7%+930bps5.6%+640bps

Guidance

Nike beat Q4 FY2026 guidance on all major metrics—revenue and Greater China both outperformed, gross margin held firm despite tariffs, and EPS crushed expectations—but withheld FY2027 forward guidance citing need for full-year reset at investor day.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ4 FY2026down 2% to 4%$11.0B+1 percentage point above guide (actual -1% vs guided -2% to -4%)Beat
Greater China Revenue GrowthQ4 FY2026down approximately 20%-12%+8 percentage points above guideBeat
Gross MarginQ4 FY2026down approximately 25 to 75 basis points49.2%sequentially flat to +25bps (vs -25 to -75bps guided)Beat
EPS (GAAP)Q4 FY2026—$0.72+453.8% above consensus estimate of $0.13Beat

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
NIKE Brand Footwear$7.103B$7.2B-1.3%
NIKE Brand Apparel$3.046B$3B+1.5%
NIKE Brand Equipment$0.551B$0.6B-8.2%
Converse$0.244B$0.4B-39.0%
Wholesale Revenue$6.6 billion$6.4B—
NIKE Direct Revenue$4.1 billion$4.4B—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
NIKE Brand Digital Decline-12%——
NIKE-owned Stores Decline-7%——

Profitability

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
Gross Margin (Q4)49.2%——
EBIT Margin12.0%——
Net Income Margin9.7%——

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
North America$4.832B$4.7B+2.8%
Europe, Middle East & Africa$2.975B$3B-0.8%
Greater China$1.297B$1.5B-13.5%
Asia Pacific & Latin America$1.596B$1.6B-0.3%
Shareholder Dividends (FY2026)$2.4 billion——

Management tone

Q4 FY2025 "90 days at a time" → Q1 FY2026 "progress won't be linear" → Q2 FY2026 "middle innings of our comeback" → Q3 FY2026 "longer than we would like" → Q4 FY2026 "decisive actions to reposition for long-term growth"

The vocabulary has fully shifted from a tactical recovery framework to a structural repositioning framework. Through three quarters of Win-Now framing, management spoke about completion ("end of the calendar year"), trajectory ("middle innings"), and inflection ("margin expansion to begin in Q2 of the guidance window"). The Q4 release retires all of that. Friend's language now is "strengthen the foundation," "reposition our business," "managing our product portfolio and investing in marketplace elevation, while adjusting our operating costs for greater efficiency over time." Win-Now is not declared complete; it is replaced. The recovery narrative has moved from "we will finish this in calendar 2026" to "we are running a different program now, and we will tell you what it is in the fall." Friend's own framing of Q4 — "delivered fourth quarter results in line with our expectations" — confirms the underlying print was in line, not a beat; the absence of a victory lap matches the underlying numbers.

The deferral of forward guidance escalated rather than held steady. Last quarter, management deferred only full-year and long-term guidance to the fall investor day while still providing a next-quarter and a nine-month revenue/earnings frame. This quarter the next-quarter guide is gone as well. The qualitative posture "adjusting our operating costs for greater efficiency over time" paired with the disclosure absence is the cleanest indication yet that the internal cost program is being resized — not refined — before the investor day reveal.

The tariff story has materially changed in Nike's favor, and the brief should read it that way. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unauthorized; Nike accrued $986M of expected recoveries in Q4 ($965M in North America, $21M in Converse) and has already received approximately $0.3B in cash. Last quarter's Friend commitment that Q1 FY2027 would be the "final quarter where higher tariffs continue to be a material year-over-year headwind to gross margin" is now likely moot — the headwind has been substantially reversed by legal ruling rather than lapped by mitigation. The Q4 release does not restate the prior commitment because the underlying tariff exposure framework has been overtaken by events. The forward "efficiency over time" language is best read as a separate, structural cost program, not a successor to the tariff-headwind framing.

The introduction of "marketplace elevation" as a strategic priority signals a retreat from the aggressive wholesale push that drove the Q1–Q3 FY2026 recovery story. Wholesale was the single working channel through the Win-Now period. The pivot toward "elevation" and "managing our product portfolio" reads as a recognition that wholesale-driven growth produced revenue at a cost — full-year revenue grew 0% reported (-2% cn) and EBIT margin compressed to 8.3%, with reported FY operating performance flattered by the IEEPA recovery on a Q4 basis. The next program will look different from the last one, and the investor day is where the trade-off between channel mix and margin will be priced.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 FY2026 Greater China — does -20% hold, or does the actual print come in worse? China came in at -12% reported / -17% cn, beating the -20% guide on either basis (the basis was not specified by management). The aggressive sell-in cut from Q3 plus accelerated marketplace cleanup produced a better outcome than management anchored to, but -17% cn actually worsened sequentially from Q3's -10% cn — the "beat" is against a low bar, not a turn. Management did not provide a forward China-specific guide. Status: Resolved positively against guide, but underlying trajectory has not turned.
Q4 FY2026 gross margin trajectory. Reported GM of 49.2% includes an ~900bps benefit from the expected IEEPA tariff recovery accrual ($986M). Underlying GM was ~40.3%, essentially in line with the down-25-to-75bps sequential guide off Q3's 40.2%. The headline "beat" is the one-time tariff recovery, not operating performance. Status: Underlying in line; one-time accrual is a clean positive event but not run-rate.
Whether the fall investor day produces a quantitative EBIT margin target with a date. Not yet answerable — the investor day has not occurred. The Q4 release confirms the investor day commitment and explicitly says "full-year and long-term guidance" will return then.
Continue monitoring
Converse — sixth consecutive quarter at -25%+ just printed. Q4 came in at -32% reported / -34% cn, the seventh consecutive ~-25%+ quarter. FY Converse EBIT collapsed to $18M from $240M (-93%), and Q4 Converse EBIT included a $21M IEEPA recovery — implying underlying FY Converse EBIT is essentially zero. No impairment language, no strategic review disclosure, no brand reset spend itemization.
Resolved negatively
EMEA deterioration. EMEA was -1% reported but -6% cn — essentially flat sequentially with Q3's -7% cn. The reported improvement is FX-flattered, not a true stabilization. Status: Neutral, not the clean refutation the reported number suggests.
North America deceleration sustainability. NA held at +3% reported and +3% cn in Q4, matching Q3's +3% cn — neither the +9% acceleration of Q2 nor the flat-or-negative outcome that would have invalidated the bull thesis. Note: NA segment EBIT was flattered by a $965M IEEPA recovery; underlying NA EBIT was roughly flat YoY. The NA top-line momentum story is intact but no longer accelerating, and underlying NA profitability did not improve.
Continue monitoring
Q1 FY2027 tariff drag. Materially recharacterized by the Feb 20, 2026 Supreme Court IEEPA ruling and the $986M recovery accrual booked in Q4. The prior "Q1 FY2027 final quarter of material tariff headwind" commitment is likely moot in the favorable direction — the headwind has been substantially reversed legally rather than lapped operationally. Status: Resolved positively via legal event; sizing of go-forward tariff regime is the investor-day question.

What to watch into next quarter

The fall investor day quantitative anchor. Six consecutive quarters of deferred long-term guidance, and now a withdrawn next-quarter guide. The investor day must produce a multi-year EBIT margin target with a date, an FY2027 revenue framework, and a China timeline. Anything less — a destination without a date, or a date without a number — is a fail on credibility.

Where Q1 FY2027 gross margin lands ex-IEEPA effects. The underlying Q4 GM of ~40.3% is the cleaner reference point. A Q1 print materially below 40% would say the underlying margin program is still deteriorating; a print above 42% would indicate the mitigation and mix work is actually progressing.

Cash timing and total sizing of IEEPA recoveries. $0.3B received in Q4 against a $986M accrual; the cash conversion cadence and any further true-ups will move FY2027 cash flow disclosure.

Converse — seventh consecutive ~-25%+ quarter at -32% reported, with FY EBIT essentially zero ex-IEEPA. The continued absence of impairment language at this trajectory is now the strongest possible signal that an impairment is being deferred rather than avoided. Watch the investor day or the Q1 FY2027 print for any disclosure shift.

China sustainability post the -17% cn print. The Q4 beat-vs-guide was driven by sell-in management plus marketplace cleanup, but cn worsened sequentially. A Q1 FY2027 cn print at -15% or worse would confirm the Q4 outcome was inventory mechanics, not the start of a turn.

Nike-owned stores trajectory. Continued deterioration to -7% in Q4. Further worsening in Q1 FY2027 would mean the physical store traffic problem is structural and the "premium destination" thesis has failed in pixels and in concrete.

Whether the next-quarter guide cadence returns at the investor day. Withdrawing the cadence is a larger signal than withdrawing the long-term framework. If the investor day reinstates only annual guidance and not the quarterly cadence, the new operating model is one of reduced disclosure intensity — and that itself is a watch item.

Sources

  1. Nike Q4 FY2026 Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000076/q4fy26exhibit991er.htm

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