NUE · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Nucor

Reported April 27, 2026

30-second summary

Nucor delivered $3.23 GAAP EPS on $9.50B revenue (+21.2% YoY, +23.5% QoQ), with steel mills generating $1.13B of segment earnings on record 7.0M-ton shipments and 86% utilization — and management explicitly noted the result exceeded the prior guidance midpoint by nearly 50¢. The 2026 setup firmed materially: shipment growth guide nudged from "approximately 5%" to "more than 5%," demand outlook quantified from "slightly up" to "flat to up 2%," and Q2 guided sequentially higher across all three segments. The "meaningfully higher FCF" thesis telegraphed at Q4 is now anchored to a record-quarter starting point rather than rhetoric.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$3.23

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$9.50B

+21.2% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

15.8%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$0.23B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

11.6%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$9.50B	+21.2%	$7.69B	+23.5%
EPS	$3.23	—	$1.73	+86.7%
Gross margin	15.8%	—	11.2%	+458bps
Operating margin	11.6%	—	6.5%	+505bps
Free cash flow	$0.23B	—	—	—

Guidance

Nucor reaffirmed full-year 2026 CapEx and modestly raised shipment growth guidance to 'more than 5%' while quantifying domestic steel demand outlook as 'flat to up 2%'; strong Q1 FY2026 results ($3.23 EPS, $1.128B steel mills earnings) exceeded qualitative forward guidance across all segments.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Steel Mills Segment Earnings	Q1 FY2026	Expected to increase; largest increase among three segments due to higher volumes and higher realized prices across all major product categories	$1,128 million	Significantly above qualitative guidance; delivered strong earnings with 86% mill utilization and $1,279/ton average selling price	Beat
Steel Products Segment Earnings	Q1 FY2026	Expected to improve due to increased volumes on stable pricing	$285 million	In-line with or above qualitative guidance; delivered solid segment improvement	Beat
Raw Materials Segment Earnings	Q1 FY2026	Expected to increase	$45 million	In-line with qualitative guidance	Beat
Consolidated Earnings	Q1 FY2026	Expected to increase in the first quarter of 2026	$3.23 EPS	Significant increase; EPS of $3.23 with $1,458M total segment earnings demonstrates robust performance	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Consolidated Earnings	FY 2026	Significantly higher than 2025; higher earnings expected across all three segments	—
Earnings	Q2 FY2026	Higher consolidated earnings with improved earnings across all three operating segments	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Domestic Steel Consumption	FY 2026	Expected to be slightly up relative to 2025	Flat to up 2%	Narrowed guidance range but more explicit; 'flat to up 2%' provides floor vs. prior 'slightly up'	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Steel Mills Segment Earnings	$1,128 million
Steel Products Segment Earnings	$285 million
Raw Materials Segment Earnings	$45 million

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Steel Mills Shipments	7,028 thousand tons
External Average Sales Price per Ton	$1,279
Steel Mills Utilization	86%
EBITDA	$1,514 million
Scrap/Scrap Substitute Cost per Gross Ton	$403

Management tone

Q1-2025 customer optimization hangover → Q2-2025 structural demand reframing → Q3-2025 demand bifurcation and capital pullback → Q4-2025 inflection point declaration → Q1 FY2026 record-print validation.

The lag-effect thesis that broke in Q3 has now re-asserted on the upside in convincing fashion. Two quarters ago management framed Q4 sheet pricing decline as a contract-lag effect that would reverse on the upside in Q1; Q4 then guided "higher realized prices across all major product categories" for Q1. From the call: "Nucor generated net earnings of $743 million, or $3.23 per share, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance range by nearly 50 cents. The beat was largely due to higher volumes and higher margin product mix." With steel mills external ASP up $55/ton QoQ and steel mill EBIT more than doubling, the contract-lag mechanism has been validated on both legs of the cycle — which materially strengthens the credibility of Q2's "sequentially higher" guide.

Trade policy has graduated from "load-bearing rhetoric" to a specific, quantified structural shift. Q2-2025 introduced tariffs as an active tailwind; Q3-2025 escalated to "no exceptions or loopholes"; Q4-2025 anchored to an 11-point import share decline. Q1 FY2026 now quantifies the new equilibrium: "Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in the first quarter of 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter," and on the Q&A call management put imports on track for 4M tons in 2026 vs. 9M in 2024 — a 5M-ton serviceable market shift. The framing is no longer about policy advocacy but about a market structure management treats as durable.

Demand language firmed from "stable" → "slightly up" → "flat to up 2%" across three consecutive quarters. Q3-2025 framed 2026 demand as "stable." Q4-2025 upgraded to "slightly up." Q1 FY2026 now quantifies: "we expect domestic steel consumption to be stable, with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026." The quantification itself is the signal — management rarely puts a numeric floor under demand commentary, and doing so alongside a "more than 5%" shipment guide implies they expect Nucor to take share even in a flat-demand environment.

Project execution narrative shifted from forecast to receipts. Q4-2025 quantified the $500M incremental 2026 EBITDA bridge from completed projects. Q1 FY2026 delivered the first proof points: "In the bar group, our new micro mill in Lexington, North Carolina, and our new melt shop in Kingman, Arizona, were both EBITDA positive in March. In the sheet group, our new galvanizing line at Crawfordsville, Indiana was also EBITDA positive in March." With Q1 EBITDA up $596M QoQ vs. an implied $125M/quarter ramp target, the bridge is materially de-risked at the front end of the year.

The forward-year framing escalated from quantitative restraint to explicit "significantly higher." Q4-2025 management said FCF would be "meaningfully higher" than 2025. Q1 FY2026 upgraded the language to "NUCOR's earnings AND cash flow will trend significantly higher than 2025" — a broader, more emphatic claim covering the earnings line, not just FCF, after a quarter that put $225M of positive FCF on the board (vs. -$188M for full-year 2025). This is unusually forward-leaning posture for Nucor.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Record operational execution (7M ton shipments, highest in company history)Trade policy as structural competitive advantage reducing importsGrowth project completion and EBITDA positivity rampingStable to positive demand environment with targeted strength in data centers, energy, border fenceCash generation and shareholder returns acceleration as capex moderatesMarket share gains through portfolio positioning and supply chain integration

Risks management surfaced:

Softer market segments: consumer cyclicals, traditional office, heavy equipment, agricultureMargin compression from rising steel input costs (partially offset by pricing)Execution risks on West Virginia sheet mill and other major growth projectsOngoing USMCA discussions and need for continued trade policy advocacyPre-operating and startup costs expected to trend higher through 2026

Q&A highlights

Bill Peterson · JPMorgan

Requested granularity on phasing of West Virginia mill commissioning, construction timeline for gallop line, production start timing, customer qualification process, and utilization expectations in coming years.

Management stated 85% through construction with commissioning sequenced throughout the year (pickle line, cold mill, galve lines, milk shop, pot mill by end of year). Production ramp begins in 2027, targeting approximately 50% capacity utilization by end of 2027. Team emphasized intentional, deliberate startup approach.

85% complete on constructionCommissioning sequenced throughout 2026Production ramp in 2027Target ~50% capacity by end of 2027

Tim Natanas · Wells Fargo

Asked about sustainability of Q1 volume growth relative to 5% guidance, whether price or volume will drive Q2 improvements, lag effects on pricing, and cost pressures (particularly scrap and energy).

Management indicated volume growth likely to exceed 5%, potentially double-digit, driven by strong customer demand. Explained lag effects: 20% of volume through downstream (eliminated intercompany), 80% sheet business on contract with pricing lag. Noted costs down YoY and QoQ; energy is ~10% of steelmaking costs with 40-50% natural gas hedging and 80% power costs.

Q1 volume growth likely exceeds 5%, approaching double-digits87% utilization currently across company20% volume through downstream (eliminated intercompany)80% sheet business on contract with pricing lag

Alex Hacking · Citi

Asked about rationale for sheet group's 'slow and steady' pricing approach and customer feedback, and which structural subsegments are driving strong performance despite elevated imports.

Management emphasized intentional pricing strategy to avoid historical boom-bust cycles that create speculative buying. Explained this approach has prevented import surge (tracking 4M tons vs. 9M in 2024). Structural driven by data centers, energy, infrastructure, military; backlogs at historic levels. Noted data centers represent only ~10% of structural backlog.

Imports tracking 4M tons in 2026 vs. 9M tons in 20245M-ton serviceable market advantage from pricing disciplineStructural backlogs at historic levelsData centers ~10% of structural backlog

Lawson Winder · Boca Securities

Asked about capital return to shareholders given recent performance exceeding 40% net income target, and potential for higher returns in 2026; also about new investment opportunities competing for free cash flow.

Management indicated 5-year trend near 60% return on net earnings; expects to close gap to 40% target in 2026 and potentially exceed it. Stated preference for buybacks over special dividends but not ruling out latter. Balancing reinvestment opportunities with shareholder returns while maintaining healthy balance sheet.

5-year trend: ~60% of net earnings returnedQ1 2026: just under 40% target (earnings beat)Expects to exceed 40% target in 2026Historical preference: buybacks over special dividends

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q1 steel mills realized pricing increase actually shows up in the print. Steel mills external ASP rose to $1,074/ton from Q4's $1,019 (+$55/ton QoQ, +5%), and steel mills EBIT more than doubled to $1.13B with both higher volumes AND higher realized prices contributing. The lag-effect thesis that broke in Q3 2025 has now re-asserted on the upside.

Resolved positively

2026 capex pacing through Q1. Management explicitly reaffirmed "on track with our $2.5 billion CapEx estimate for the full year." Q1 capex was $661M, ~40% of which went to West Virginia, which is confirmed as 85% complete on construction.

Continue monitoring

Sustained shareholder return cadence into 2026. Q1 FY2026 buybacks were ~$125M (0.7M shares @ $175.19 avg), plus dividends ≈ $254M total return, or ~34% of net earnings — tracking below the 40%+ annual target on the earnings beat. Management expects to close the gap and potentially exceed 40% in 2026, preferring buybacks.

Continue monitoring

Pre-operating cost trajectory at West Virginia. Q1 pre-op and startup costs were $108M (vs Q4 $87M), and management reiterated these will trend higher through 2026 as West Virginia commissioning proceeds.

Continue monitoring

Tracking the $500M incremental EBITDA ramp. Q1 EBITDA of $1.51B vs. Q4's $918M is a $596M QoQ swing — well above the ~$125M/quarter implied run-rate. Lexington, Kingman, and Crawfordsville all hit EBITDA-positive in March, providing concrete proof of the project ramp underpinning the bridge.

Resolved positively

First "Expand Beyond" M&A announcement. No deal announced this quarter. Management reaffirmed preference for buybacks over special dividends and described balancing reinvestment against shareholder returns — implying capital is moving into buybacks rather than waiting on M&A.

Continue monitoring

USMCA renegotiation positioning ahead of July. Q&A acknowledged ongoing USMCA discussions and the need for continued trade policy advocacy, but the headline structural data point (import share down to 15% from 22% YoY) suggests the enforcement regime is holding ahead of July. No specific transshipment or Mexico/Canada terms commentary disclosed.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q2 steel mills ASP sustains above $1,074/ton or rolls over. Management guided Q2 higher across all three segments, with steel mills earnings driven by "higher realized selling prices with stable volumes." If Q2 ASP comes in flat or down despite the "higher earnings" guide, it means the lift is volume-only and the pricing recovery is one-quarter wide — which would reset the FY 2026 earnings power thesis.

Whether scrap input cost compression continues or worsens. Q1 scrap rose $23/ton QoQ to $403. Management said the compression "should ease as the year progresses and realized pricing catches up." Watch the spread between ASP and scrap as the leading indicator for steel mill margin sustainability.

Q1 free cash flow translation into Q2 buybacks. Q1 generated $225M of FCF — the first positive print after FY 2025's -$188M. With Q1 returns at ~34% of net earnings vs. the 40%+ annual target, watch whether Q2 buyback pace accelerates materially or whether cash continues to be conserved.

West Virginia pre-operating cost ramp. Q1 pre-op was $108M (vs Q4 $87M); management flagged these will trend higher through 2026. A Q2 step-up materially above this level would compress the 2026 earnings bridge.

Whether the "more than 5%" shipment guide gets quantified further. Wells Fargo asked whether Q1 volume growth approaching double-digits is sustainable. If H1 tracks meaningfully above 5%, expect a formal guide raise on the Q2 print — and watch whether management uses it to anchor an explicit FY 2026 EBITDA framework.

USMCA terms pre- and post-July renegotiation. The 15% import share floor that underpins the structural pricing thesis depends on continued enforcement. Any transshipment loopholes or Mexico/Canada concessions would be the first crack in the load-bearing trade policy narrative.

Sources

Nucor Q1 2026 press release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed April 27, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526182332/d150975dex991.htm
Nucor Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (management remarks and Q&A)

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