OKE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Oneok

Reported February 23, 2026

30-second summary

Oneok closed 2025 with adjusted EBITDA of $8.02B (near the low end of the $8.0–8.45B guide) and FY net income of $3.46B (within the $3.17–3.65B guide), but the headline is the 2026 guide: adjusted EBITDA of $7.9–8.3B (midpoint $8.1B) implies essentially flat YoY growth despite $150M of incremental synergies, a Medford rebuild contribution, and Denver/Permian expansions. This is the third successive reset of the 2026 outlook — February 2025's framing → Q2's $200M markdown → Q3's withdrawal → today's print landing materially below the "approaching $9B" expectation analysts arrived with. Q4 NGL raw feed throughput of 1,586 MBbl/d actually ticked above the FY pace of 1,496 MBbl/d, but the 2026 guide band of 1,450–1,550 MBbl/d signals flat-to-down volumes ahead.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.55

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$9.06B

+29.5% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

16.9%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$9.06B	+29.5%	$8.63B	+5.0%
EPS	$1.55	—	$1.49	+4.0%
Operating margin	16.9%	—	18.0%	-110bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
EPS (GAAP)	FY 2025	$3.17 - $3.65	$5.42	+$1.77 above high end of guide	Beat
Net Income	FY 2025	$3.17 billion - $3.65 billion	$3.73 billion	+$0.08 billion above high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$8.0 billion - $8.45 billion	$8.02 billion	in-line with guidance range (near low end)	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
EPS (GAAP)	FY 2026	$5.04 - $5.87	—
Net Income	FY 2026	$3,190 million - $3,710 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$7,900 million - $8,300 million	—
Total Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$2.7 billion - $3.2 billion	—
Growth Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$2,105 million - $2,645 million	—
Maintenance Capital Expenditures	FY 2026	$550 million - $600 million	—
Natural Gas Liquids segment adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$2,775 million - $2,915 million	—
Refined Products and Crude segment adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$2,175 million - $2,275 million	—
Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$2,105 million - $2,215 million	—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA (Full-Year 2025)	$8.02 billion
Natural Gas Liquids Raw Feed Throughput	1,496 MBbl/d
Natural Gas Processed	5,588 MMcf/d
Refined Products Volume Shipped	1,526 MBbl/d
Crude Oil Volume Shipped	1,784 MBbl/d
Natural Gas Transportation Capacity Contracted	91%
Fee-Based Earnings Percentage	~90%
Cumulative Acquisition-Related Synergies (Through Year-End 2025)	$475 million

Management tone

Q2 anchor: 2026 markdown $200M → Q3 anchor: 2026 guidance withdrawn → Q4 anchor: 2026 guide prints flat.

The three-quarter arc resolves with management formally printing what the prior two quarters telegraphed: 2026 is a digestion year. The adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $8.1B is essentially flat to FY2025's $8.02B actual, despite $150M of identified incremental synergies and material project contributions (Medford rebuild, Denver expansion, Permian processing). For the headline to come in flat with $150M of synergy tailwind embedded, the underlying business — volumes and spreads — has to be down roughly $150M. That is what the print is saying.

JP Morgan's Jeremy Tonette pressed exactly this point in Q&A. Management's answer named two drivers: "100M cf/d volume miss in 2025 not yet recovered" and "spread compression from lower commodity prices." The framing has thus moved from Q2's "tempering" to Q3's "moderation and increased optimization" to Q4's explicit acknowledgement that 2025's volume shortfall is structural and 2026 will not recover it. The bull case has been pushed out: per Pierce, near-term projects (Denver expansion, Medford, Shadowfax) provide strength into 2027.

What hasn't changed is the synergy narrative. $475M cumulative realized per the press release (transcript references "nearly $500M"), $250M in 2025 alone (versus the $250M target reaffirmed across every prior quarter), and $150M incremental for 2026 stated by Teresa Chen's question as "all identified, in the plan, and underway." This remains the controllable lever and the line item management projects highest conviction on. It is also the only reason the 2026 guide isn't worse.

A new defensive layer appeared in Q&A around upside optimization: discretionary ethane locks, NGL spread capture, butane spread timing, WAHA basis above forecast. Management is signaling that the guide is conservative on optimization — but Bank of America's Salisbury extracted the more important admission: 2026 NGL guidance explicitly does not assume a repeat of 2025's discretionary ethane outperformance, and the Bakken loses an 18K bbl/d contract to Kinder Morgan. The "conservatism" frame, in other words, is partially a substitute for organic growth.

Q&A highlights

Spiro Dunas · Citi

Where has conservatism been built into 2026 guidance, particularly around commodity assumptions? What optimization opportunities exist that aren't baked into the guide, similar to past examples like discretionary ethane recovery?

Management indicated $55-60/bbl WTI assumption is conservative; higher prices would benefit spreads and producer drilling. Optimization upside includes discretionary ethane locking at favorable spreads (Bakken), spot GNP offloads in Permian, NGL spread capture (Conway-Bellevue), and refined products butane spread locking when spreads widen. Management has historically captured value through tactical marketing timing.

$55-60/bbl WTI assumption for 2026Discretionary ethane marketing and spot offloads identified as upside sourcesNGL and refined products spread optimization historically captured value

Michael Blum · Wells Fargo

How much open capacity exists on WAHA basis spreads, and what WAHA spread is assumed in 2026 guidance? Are spreads assumed to be zero?

Management declined to specify exact open capacity but confirmed capacity exists above current plant needs. WAHA spreads currently trading above forecast assumptions; spreads expected to remain favorable through Q3 2026 before next pipeline additions. Acknowledged spreads are a moving target with potential upside if current levels persist.

Spreads currently above forecast assumptionsFavorable conditions expected through Q3 2026Next pipeline capacity additions bring spreads back together later in 2026

Jeremy Tonette · JP Morgan

How are recent acquisitions (Magellan, Enlink, Medallion) tracking against original expectations? Why is 2026 EBITDA guidance only $8.1B when prior expectations suggested approaching $9B?

Magellan performing ahead of expectations with $500M cumulative synergies realized (vs original expectations), $250M in 2025 alone. Enlink on track; contractual volume rollovers occurring as expected. Medallion ramping well with balance sheet deployment and gathering integration. 2026 delta to $9B driven primarily by lower producer activity (100M cf/d volume miss in 2025 not yet recovered) and narrowing spreads from lower commodity environment. Near-term projects (Denver expansion, Medford, Shadowfax) provide strength into 2027.

Magellan: $500M total synergies realized, $250M in 2025100M cf/d volume miss in 2025 not yet recoveredSpread compression from lower commodity prices as secondary driverEnlink and Medallion on pace with original expectations

Teresa Chen · Barclays

How much visibility and confidence does management have in capturing the $150M of incremental synergies embedded in 2026 guidance?

Management stated $150M of synergies are 'all identified, in the plan, and underway' with 'very high confidence' in capture. Will come from same buckets as historical synergies outlined on page 9 (primarily asset connectivity, logistical benefits, and operational integration). Synergies embedded in normal course of execution, not contingent on external factors.

$150M synergies fully identified and underwayHigh confidence in executionComes from identified operational and logistical integration activities

Jeanne Ann Salisbury · Bank of America

Why is 2026 NGL throughput volume guidance essentially flat versus 2025 despite growing gas-to-oil ratios across all basins?

Flat guidance driven by: (1) Bakken: loss of 18K bbl/d contract rolling to Kinder Morgan; still shows growth but tempered; (2) Mid-Continent: increased ethane rejection forecast plus lack of discretionary ethane incentives assumed (unlike strong 2025 performance); (3) Permian: expecting nice growth in full ethane recovery. Management noted not forecasting repeat of 2025 discretionary ethane outperformance. Combined effect nets to flat despite organic volume growth drivers.

Bakken: 18K bbl/d contract loss to KMIMid-Continent: increased ethane rejection vs 2025No discretionary ethane incentives predicted (unlike 2025)Permian growth expected but offset by other headwinds

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the Q1 2026 guide implies a third cut versus the marked-down Q2 framing — Yes, decisively. Q2's framing was "mid-to-upper-single-digit YoY growth" off a base ~$200M below February 2025's outlook (implying roughly $8.5–8.8B for 2026). The Q4 print of $7.9–8.3B (midpoint $8.1B) is materially below that — the midpoint is approximately flat vs. FY2025 actual of $8.02B. This is the third cut.

Resolved negatively

Whether NGL segment growth held above +15% YoY into Q4 — No. NGL segment grew +3.9% YoY in Q4 versus +19.8% in Q3 (FY YoY +9.3%). The Q3 re-acceleration was a single-quarter lap and did not persist into Q4 on an EBITDA basis.

Resolved negatively

Q4 capex cadence against the $2.8–3.2B FY2025 range — FY2025 capex came in at $3.15B, within the disclosed range. FY2026 guidance of $2.7–3.2B is slightly lower at the low end, consistent with a normalized investment profile.

Continue monitoring

Producer budget commentary — Pierce's deferral hinged on knowing budgets in early Q1. Management cited the 100 MMcf/d 2025 volume shortfall not recovering in 2026 and assumed $55–60/bbl WTI as the planning band, with explicit assumption that lower commodity prices "moderate producer activity." Producer activity is the named primary driver of flat 2026.

Resolved negatively

Leverage approach to 3.5x by Q4 2026 run-rate — Q4 2025 annualized run-rate net debt-to-EBITDA was 3.8x (excluding transaction costs); Walt reaffirmed progress toward the 3.5x or lower long-term target but did not re-anchor to the Q4 2026 timing.

Continue monitoring

Sunbelt Connector open season and Midcontinent gas egress — Addressed in Q&A. Pierce said the prior open season generated interest but not enough to FID, and the competing project is similarly under-subscribed; ONEOK still sees a path to bring the project to FID via its Gulf Coast refiner connectivity.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA tracks above the implied $1.95–2.08B quarterly run-rate of the $7.9–8.3B FY guide. Management explicitly flagged Q1 as the lowest-EBITDA quarter due to fewer days and weather (including January Winter Storm Fern, which depressed G&P/NGL volumes ~10% vs. plan but is already baked into guidance).

WAHA basis spread realization: management acknowledged spreads are above forecast through Q3 2026. A material positive variance would validate the "conservatism" framing; a return-to-forecast would expose how much of the guide depends on optimization not in the plan.

NGL raw feed throughput against the 1,450–1,550 MBbl/d FY2026 band. FY2025 ran at 1,496 MBbl/d (Q4 at 1,586); a step-down below the FY base would signal the Bakken contract loss and Mid-Continent ethane rejection are not offset by Permian growth.

Cadence of the $150M incremental synergies — management called them "underway." Quarterly realization should be visible by Q2 2026 in segment-level cost or margin disclosures.

Whether management reintroduces a forward-2027 EBITDA framing tied to Denver, Medford, and Shadowfax project completions. The 2027 anchor is now the bull case; absence of a quantified range there would extend the digestion narrative.

Natural Gas Pipelines segment performance after Q4's optically severe -37.4% YoY (distorted by 2024 divestiture comparable) and the drop in contracted capacity to 91%. The FY2026 segment guide of $825–865M is roughly flat vs. FY2025; a miss here is contained but would undermine the "fee-based stability" anchor.

Sources

ONEOK Q4 2025 Earnings Release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000004/okeq42025earningsrelease.htm
ONEOK Q4 2025 conference call prepared remarks and Q&A

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.