PCAR · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Paccar

Reported July 28, 2026

30-second summary

Q2 revenue of $7.55B beat consensus by 7.4% and gross margin came in at 14.4% — 90bps above the ~13.5% Q1 guide — with truck deliveries of 38,700 exceeding the 37–38K guide and parts pre-tax hitting $417M, above Q1's $402.3M and the highest print in the past five quarters. The signal that matters: management lowered the top end of FY2026 capex ($775M → $750M) and R&D ($500M → $480M), withdrew the FY parts revenue growth guide (3–6%) entirely with no replacement, and did not raise the 270K NA Class 8 high end despite Q1's "full" commentary — the operational beat is being paired with a quiet, three-way pullback in forward disclosure and spending posture. Europe was raised (280–320K → 290–330K); NA was left alone.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.43

+5.1% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$7.55B

+0.5% YoY

+7.4% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

14.4%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$7.55B	$7.51B	+0.5%	$6.78B	+11.4%
EPS	$1.43	$1.37	+4.4%	$1.15	+24.3%
Gross margin	14.4%	—	—	13.1%	+130bps

Guidance

PACCAR beat Q2 delivery and margin guidance but narrowed capex/R&D guidance and withdrew full-year parts growth guidance; raised European truck market outlook.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Truck Deliveries	Q2 FY2026	37,000 to 38,000 vehicles	38,700 units	+700-1,700 units above guide	Beat
Gross Margin	Q2 FY2026	approximately 13.5%	14.4%	+0.9 percentage points above guide	Beat
Parts Revenue Growth	Q2 FY2026	approximately 3% growth	1.5%	-1.5 percentage points below guide	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital Expenditures	FY2026	$725 million to $775 million	$700 million to $750 million	-$25M on both low and high end	Lowered
Research and Development Expenses	FY2026	$450 million to $500 million	$450 million to $480 million	-$20M on high end	Lowered
European Truck Industry Registrations (above 16-tonne)	FY2026	280,000 to 320,000 trucks	290,000 to 330,000 vehicles	+10,000 on both low and high end	Raised
Parts Revenue Growth	FY2026	3% to 6%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: U.S. and Canada Class 8 Truck Industry Retail Sales (230,000 to 270,000 trucks), South American Above 16-tonne Truck Market (100,000 to 110,000 trucks)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Truck	$5.25B	$5.24B	+0.2%
Parts	$1.75B	$1.72B	+1.7%
Financial Services	$0.55B	$0.55B	+0.0%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
United States and Canada	$4.59B	$4.75B	-3.4%
Europe	$1.79B	$1.67B	+7.2%
Other	$1.17B	$1.09B	+7.3%
Global Truck Deliveries	38,700 units	39,300 units	—
PACCAR Parts Pre-tax Income	$417.0 million	$416.5 million	—
PACCAR Financial Services Pre-tax Income	$124.1 million	$123.2 million	—
Operating Cash Flow	$700.8 million	$833.4 million	—
PFS Portfolio	222,000 trucks and trailers	—	—
PFS Total Assets	$22.3 billion	$23.31 billion	—
Truck Segment Pre-tax Profit Margin	6.9%	—	—
Parts Segment Pre-tax Profit Margin	23.9%	—	—

Management tone

No transcript was available for this quarter; the tone read is drawn entirely from the press release and the guidance changes it contains.

Q2-25 tariff uncertainty → Q3-25 Section 232 as dated path → Q4-25 tariff clarity as tailwind → Q1-26 "we're full" → Q2-26 quiet retrenchment.

The disclosure posture has narrowed even as the numbers strengthened. Three quarters ago management refused to guide Q3 margin. Two quarters ago they named implementation dates. One quarter ago they told Wells Fargo Q2 and majority of H2 were "full." This quarter, with the margin beat in hand and deliveries above guide, management withdrew the FY parts guide, trimmed capex and R&D top ends, and declined to raise NA industry sizing. The direction of travel is a company beating the numbers but tightening what it commits to going forward — a pattern that historically precedes either an unspoken caution about H2 or a deliberate under-promise into a pre-buy.

The parts recovery narrative is being walked back without being renamed. In Q1 Kevin framed parts as "lagging customer financial health" with acceleration expected in H2 inside a 3–6% FY band. In Q2 parts grew 1.5% — decelerating from Q1's 1.2%, not accelerating — and rather than lower the band to 1–3% or 2–4%, management withdrew it. The absence of a replacement number is the tell: either management does not have visibility to commit to any positive band, or they have visibility to a number below the low end of the withdrawn range. Pre-tax dollars held at $417M, so the margin story is intact; the volume story is not.

Capex and R&D trims signal spending discipline that was not signalled in Q1. Q1 reaffirmed capex at $725–775M and R&D at $450–500M. Q2 lowers both top ends by roughly 3%. The absolute dollars are modest, but the sequencing matters — cutting the top end in the middle of the year without an offsetting narrative (no "efficiency", no "project deferral", no "phasing") reads as a company that has decided the H2 volume ramp does not require the peak spending envelope it planned for six months ago.

Europe was raised; NA was not. The FY Europe range moved up 10K units on both ends, corroborating the +6.9% Q2 European revenue print. The NA 230–270K range was left untouched despite Q1's "full Q2, majority full H2" commentary and Q2's delivery beat. Management could have raised the low end from 230K to 240K or 245K with the year half done and momentum confirmed; they did not. The asymmetric response — willing to raise Europe on a print, unwilling to raise NA on both a print and a full order book — is the cleanest expression of hidden caution in the release.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 gross margin vs. the ~13.5% guide. Truck/Parts/Other gross margin landed at 14.4%, 90bps above the guide. Section 232 is at full benefit, volume leverage from 38,700 deliveries flowed through, and price-cost favorability that Preston flagged as "over a percent" in Q1 appears to have widened. This is the highest margin print in the four-quarter series. Status: Resolved positively

Q2 truck deliveries vs. the 37–38K guide. Deliveries landed at 38,700 — above the top of the range by 700 units. The "full in Q2" framing was slightly conservative, and the hiring/supply constraint Preston named as the binding factor did not tighten enough to derail the ramp. Status: Resolved positively

Q2 parts pre-tax recovery. Parts pre-tax came in at $417.0M — the highest quarterly print in the series and above the $410–417M band that has held for a year. However, revenue grew only 1.5% (below the ~3% Q1 guide), and the FY 3–6% growth band was withdrawn entirely. The dollar profitability is intact; the top-line recovery Kevin promised is not materializing. Status: Resolved negatively on the growth question, positive on the pre-tax dollar question.

NA Class 8 order book Q3–Q4 fill progression beyond "majority full." The press release did not disclose Q3 or Q4 fill percentages, and management did not raise the 230–270K NA industry range despite the Q1 "full" commentary and the Q2 delivery beat. Whether the order book advanced from "majority full" toward fully booked cannot be determined from the release. Status: Not resolved

South America / Other geography trajectory. "Other" revenue grew 7.3% YoY, a sharp inflection from Q1's -26.5%. The regional headwind stabilized without explicit management commentary — the FY South America 100–110K range was reaffirmed unchanged, consistent with the print. Status: Resolved positively

Section 232 NSRP 3.75% credit application timing. The press release did not disclose the status of the NSRP credit. Q2 gross margin of 14.4% substantially exceeded the 13.5% guide, so a credit landing in the quarter would be consistent with the beat, but the company did not confirm it. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q3 gross margin trajectory. No explicit Q3 guide was disclosed in the press release. Q2's 14.4% is the reference point — a print at or above 14% in Q3 would confirm price-cost favorability plus Section 232 benefit are sustaining at the elevated level; below 14% would suggest Q2 captured a NSRP-credit or timing benefit that does not repeat.

Q3 parts revenue growth relative to Q2's +1.5%. With the FY 3–6% band withdrawn, the parts growth number is now the cleanest disclosure of customer financial health. Growth accelerating toward 3% would restore Kevin's Q1 thesis; growth staying at or below 1.5% would confirm the withdrawal was a downgrade in all-but-name.

Whether the FY NA Class 8 range moves in Q3. With six months of print in hand and Q1 "full" commentary, the 230–270K range should either narrow (indicating the year is landing decisively above 250K) or be raised at the low end. Reaffirmation unchanged for a third consecutive quarter would be a quiet negative signal about H2 order momentum.

Reinstatement or continued absence of the FY parts revenue growth guide. Whether management provides a replacement band for parts revenue growth in Q3 tests whether the Q2 withdrawal was a one-quarter pause on disclosure or a structural change in how parts is guided.

US/Canada revenue trajectory relative to deliveries. US/Canada revenue fell 3.3% in Q2 despite the global delivery beat. Whether Q3 shows US/Canada revenue growing YoY on continued strong deliveries would test whether the Q2 mix weakness was one-quarter noise or a broader shift in NA customer mix toward lower-ASP configurations.

Capex and R&D actual spend against the trimmed FY ranges. Whether H2 spending tracks the new $700–750M capex and $450–480M R&D ranges — or whether further top-end trims arrive in Q3 — signals whether the Q2 cuts were the end of the tightening cycle or the start of it.

Sources

PACCAR Q2 2026 press release (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526318918/pcar-ex99_1.htm

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.