tapebrief
PEG · Q1 2026

PEG · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Public Service Enterprise Group

Reported August 4, 2026

30-second summary

PSEG delivered Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 on revenue of $2.55B (-8.9% YoY), driven by a 41.9% decline in PSEG Power & Other revenue as MTM accounting swings and the post-May-2025 absence of ZECs weigh on the segment against a heavy year-ago comp. Management held the FY2026 guide at $4.28–$4.40 for the second consecutive quarter — declining to narrow upward despite 1H non-GAAP EPS of $2.41 (~56% of the $4.34 midpoint) — reaffirmed the 6–8% CAGR through 2030, and formalized the $24–28B five-year capital program with an emphasis on equity-free funding. Nuclear multi-year offtake, the BPU consultant study, and the mature large-load pipeline all remained undisclosed on the print.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.86

+7.5% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$2.55B

-8.9% YoY

-8.8% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

18.1%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$2.55B$2.81B-8.9%$3.85B-33.6%
EPS$0.86$0.77+11.7%$1.55-44.5%
Operating margin18.1%29.1%-1104bps27.9%-984bps

Guidance

PSEG maintained full-year FY2026 EPS guidance and five-year earnings growth outlook; disclosed $24–$28B five-year capex program.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Five-Year Capital Investment ProgramFY2030$24 billion to $28 billion—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Per Share ($4.28 to $4.40), Five-Year Non-GAAP Operating Earnings Growth (2026–2030) (6% to 8%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
PSE&G$2.137B$2.031B+5.2%
PSEG Power & Other$0.534B$0.92B-42.0%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
PSE&G Electric Sales9,629 million kWh——
PSE&G Gas Sales541 million therms——
Nuclear Generation (NJ & PA)7,787 GWh——
Nuclear Capacity Factor92.0%——
Operating Margin18.06%——
Electric Customers2.4 million——
Gas Customers1.9 million——
Clean Energy Future Program Savings$1 billion annual——

Management tone

No transcript available this quarter — tone assessment is inferred from press-release framing and disclosed guidance shifts only.

The press-release narrative continues the arc from Q1: nuclear contracting is again flagged as an "incremental opportunity" via "multi-year agreements," now for the fourth consecutive quarter without a signed transaction. The framing has drifted from named upside lever (Q4-2025) to standing optionality (Q1-2026) to boilerplate opportunity language this quarter — a subtle demotion that suggests management is less prepared to point to a near-term contract than they were two quarters ago.

The balance-sheet message hardened in a specific way. The press release now leads with the $24–28B five-year capital program "funded without the need to issue new equity or sell assets." Every prior quarter has repeated the equity-free line, but this quarter it is paired with an explicit dollar envelope for the first time as a formal disclosure. The signal is that management wants investors to anchor on the capital plan, not the quarterly revenue prints — a defensible posture given the Power & Other MTM volatility on display in this print.

Dividend growth language shifted from prior quarters' "confidence in long-term projections" to "opportunity for consistent and sustainable dividend growth." "Opportunity" is softer than "confidence" — a small hedge that may or may not survive to the Q3 print, but worth noting against a backdrop where the FY guide has been held rather than raised twice in a row.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

FY2026 guide narrowing on the Q2 print — Not delivered. Guide held at $4.28–$4.40 for the second consecutive quarter despite 1H non-GAAP EPS of $2.41 (~56% of midpoint) and the seasonally heaviest quarters now complete. This is the second consecutive hold-not-raise on a print that historically would have supported a floor lift. Either 2H has an unflagged drag (higher O&M, weather normalization, Power & Other continued weakness) or management is preserving buffer against the streak. Status: Resolved negatively
BPU consultant study release (summer 2026) — No disclosure in the press release. The study was due "summer 2026" per Q1 guidance; the Q2 print (dated early August) does not reference its release, stakeholder-process progression, or a revised timeline. Without a transcript, whether management commented on the timing is unclear. Status: Continue monitoring
Nuclear offtake or Salem task force seat — Not delivered. Press release again references "the potential to contract our nuclear output under multi-year agreements" — verbatim language from the Q1 script. Four consecutive quarters of naming contracting as an upside lever without a transaction. Status: Continue monitoring
Large-load pipeline movement vs. the 11 GW plateau — Not disclosed in the press release. The pipeline figure has not been refreshed in press-release detail for two consecutive quarters. Status: Not resolved
FERC PJM cost-reallocation refund execution — No disclosure in the press release regarding timing or bill-credit magnitude of the estimated ">$100M" refund. Status: Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q3-2026 EPS pace against the $4.34 midpoint: with 1H at $2.41, the implied 2H is $1.87–$1.99 to hit the range. A Q3 print above $1.13 (Q3-2025) with the FY guide finally narrowed upward (e.g. $4.32–$4.40) would confirm the streak. A Q3 miss or a third consecutive hold would put the guide in play for a Q4 floor-cut narrative.

PSEG Power & Other segment revenue direction and MTM behavior: the segment's reported revenue is now hostage to MTM reclassification (Q2-2026 saw a ~$450M YoY swing in the MTM line alone). Watch whether Q3 stabilizes on both a reported and non-GAAP-operating-earnings basis — a second consecutive reported-revenue decline paired with flat operating earnings would confirm the story is optics; a decline in both would force a re-read of the merchant assumption embedded in the 6–8% CAGR.

BPU consultant study release and PSE&G positioning: the study was due summer 2026 and remains the single most important external event on the calendar. Watch whether Q3 disclosure references the study's release, its findings on cost-of-service vs. performance-based ratemaking, and PSE&G's stakeholder-process posture.

First nuclear multi-year offtake announcement or Salem task force role: four consecutive quarters of naming contracting as an upside lever without a transaction. Watch Q3 for a counterparty, term, or a formal Salem task force seat — continued absence would justify discounting the contracting thesis in outer-year modeling.

Large-load pipeline refresh: the mature-pipeline figures have not been updated in press-release detail for two quarters. Watch whether Q3 discloses either a formal refresh or a shift in framing (e.g. PA-weighted pipeline separated from NJ) that would clarify whether the data-center thesis is still intact.

Sources

  1. PSEG Q2 2026 press release, SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm
  2. Tapebrief PEG Q1-2026 brief (prior watch list and guidance trajectory baseline)
  3. Tapebrief PEG Q4-2025 brief (FY2026 guide initiation and long-term CAGR raise)
  4. Tapebrief PEG Q3-2025 brief (large-load pipeline and capital plan history)
  5. Tapebrief PEG Q2-2025 brief (multi-quarter narrative baseline)

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