tapebrief
PFE · Q3 2025

PFE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Pfizer

Reported February 3, 2026

30-second summary

Pfizer closed FY2025 with Q4 revenue of $17.6B (-3% operational YoY) and FY2025 revenue of $62.6B inside the $61–64B band, with FY2025 adjusted EPS of $3.22 beating the raised $3.00–$3.15 guide by $0.07. The real news is the FY2026 framework — initially issued at the December 16, 2025 investor event and reaffirmed at today's print: revenue $59.5–62.5B (down ~$2B at the midpoint vs FY2025 actual), adjusted EPS $2.80–$3.00 (stepping down ~10% at the midpoint, 4–7% at the high end, from $3.22), with the effective tax rate guiding up to ~15.0% (vs FY2025 actual of 12.7%) and explicit acknowledgment of ~$1.5B LOE drag, ~$5B COVID baseline, and MFN/TrumpRx pricing pressure. Management is framing 2026 as a "catalytic year" with ~20 pivotal trial starts, but the numbers say earnings go down before the pipeline carries.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.66

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$17.60B

-3.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

71.1%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$17.60B-3.0%$16.65B+5.7%
EPS$0.66—$0.87-24.1%
Gross margin71.1%—76.1%-500bps

Guidance

Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 guidance (revenue $59.5–$62.5B, adjusted EPS $2.80–$3.00) while exceeding FY2025 targets; narrowed expense ranges and disclosed material $1.5B LOE and ~$5B COVID-19 revenue contributions, signaling managed decline offset by pipeline catalysts (20 pivotal trial starts planned in 2026).

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueFY2025$61.0 to $64.0 billion$62.6 billionin-line with guidance rangeMet
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY2025$3.00 to $3.15$3.22+$0.07 above the high end of guidanceMet

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted SI&A ExpensesFY2026$12.5 to $13.5 billion—
Adjusted R&D ExpensesFY2026$10.5 to $11.5 billion—
Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted IncomeFY2026Approximately 15.0%—
COVID-19 Product RevenuesFY2026Approximately $5 billion—
Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) Revenue ImpactFY2026Approximately $1.5 billion negative impact—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Primary Care$7.938B-13.0%
Specialty Care$4.771B+6.0%
Eliquis$2.020 billion—
Vyndaqel family$1.688 billion—
Prevnar family$1.708 billion—
AbrysvoUp 136% operationally—
ComirnatyDown 35% operationally—
PaxlovidDown 70% operationally—

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
International$8.438B-4.0%
Non-COVID portfolio growth9% operational growth—
Adjusted gross margin71.1%—

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 cost program as offense → Q3 Metsera combat and COVID de-risking → Q4 pipeline-as-narrative with formal earnings step-down.

The framing of 2026 shifted from "transition year managed by cost program" to "catalytic year measured by pivotal starts." Two quarters ago management was selling the $7.2B net cost savings as the structural margin lever that would absorb LOE through 2027. This quarter the headline number is "approximately 20 key pivotal trials in 2026" and a strategic emphasis on "industry-leading growth at the end of the decade." The shift signals management has decided the 2026–27 earnings window is no longer winnable as a margin story and is asking investors to underwrite pipeline value 2028+.

LOE and policy headwinds went from refused-to-quantify to formally disclosed. In Q2 management would not size MFN/tariff impact; in Q3 it acknowledged "dilutive impact to 2026" without a number. This quarter, the press release puts hard figures on the table: ~$1.5B LOE revenue impact, ~$5B COVID baseline, and explicit mention of "Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing and TrumpRx" as anticipated unfavorable impacts inside the guide. The shift from defensive non-disclosure to quantified inclusion tells you the policy uncertainty has settled enough to be priced — and that the price is sub-FY2025 earnings.

Tax rate sustainability question answered, badly. FY2025 adjusted effective tax rate landed at 12.7% (vs the prior guide of ~11.0%). FY2026 now guides to ~15.0% — a 230bp step-up versus FY2025 actual, mechanically subtracting roughly $0.07–$0.08 from EPS on a $3+ base. The FY2025 tax tailwind that drove the Q3 EPS raise was not structural; it compounds the LOE drag in 2026.

Q&A highlights

Chris Schott · J.P. Morgan

Asked about tolerability data from VESPR-3, specifically vomiting rates and differences between dosing arms, and the commercial role of a product with solid weight loss and monthly dosing but potentially lower efficacy than weekly formulations.

Management confirmed tolerability was consistent with GLP-1 class, with no clustering of adverse events when switching to monthly dosing. Only one instance each of severe nausea and vomiting across all dose groups; no severe diarrhea. Affirmed that monthly dosing combined with competitive efficacy creates a compelling value proposition for patients, providers, and payers due to improved persistency and simplicity. Noted opportunity to switch patients from weekly to monthly therapy.

5 discontinuations due to adverse events in both weekly and monthly phases across planned Phase 3 dose regimens1 instance of severe nausea, 1 instance of severe vomiting, 0 instances of severe diarrhea across all dose groupsNo protocol-permitted down-titration in study, unlike standard obesity trialsMonthly dosing reduces medication burden 4-fold

Jeff Meacham · Citibank

Asked whether monthly is the longest feasible dosing interval or if bi-monthly is possible, and queried Phase 3 study designs regarding metabolic vs. other indications and potential active comparator arms.

Management confirmed monthly is the target maintenance interval for 3944; a separate peptide in Phase 1 (pro-drug format) is being developed for potential quarterly dosing. Phase 3 programs (VESPA 4, 5, 6) will focus on chronic weight management and metabolic disease initially, with seven additional studies planned starting later to explore differentiation opportunities, including combinations with amylin and GIPR antagonist, and potential non-metabolic indications.

3944 designed for monthly maintenance therapySeparate Phase 1 molecule with pro-drug formulation being developed for potential 3-monthly administrationPKPD data expected on quarterly candidate in coming months7 additional Phase 3 studies planned beyond initial VESPA 4, 5, 6 programs

Asad Haider · Goldman Sachs

Asked about portfolio realignment strategy, specifically regarding the VEV (HIV JV with Glaxo) divestment and recent creation of global hospital and biosimilar business unit, and what 'innings' remain in portfolio pruning.

Albert stated most pipeline pruning has been completed; current investments are in assets management believes in. Very few exceptions remain for discontinuations or divestitures. Chris added focus is on four therapeutic areas with significant 2025 prioritization, identifying $500M in R&D savings which are being reinvested into Phase 3 programs. Dave confirmed VEV is a non-strategic asset being monetized to redeploy capital at higher returns; sterile injectable and biosimilar portfolio created to drive productivity gains.

Most pipeline pruning completed$500M R&D savings identified and reinvested20 pivotal studies planned for 2026VEV divestment proceeds to redeploy at higher returns

Jason Gerberry · Bank of America

Asked about the value proposition of GLP-1 plus amylin combination vs. monotherapy, whether it aims to compete in ultra-high efficacy tier (like Lilly's triple-G) or target GLP-1 non-responders, given monthly monotherapy appears competitive with Zepbound/Mounjaro.

Chris confirmed both monotherapy and combination will advance in Phase 3; combination expected to deliver increased efficacy. Amir emphasized portfolio optionality: early innings of large market with unmet needs (convenience, higher weight loss for certain BMI patients, GI tolerability, maintenance strategies). Different patients have different starting points, goals, dosing preferences, and willingness to pay; portfolio approach with differentiated commercial capabilities needed to win. Combination provides additional option for patients seeking higher efficacy.

Both 3944 monotherapy and 3944 + 3945 combination advancing to Phase 3Earlier combination data: 5% additive weight loss at Day 8Ultra-long amylin monotherapy: 8.4% weight loss at Day 36Phase 3 combination study planned to start in 2026

Louise Chen · Scotiabank

Asked about Seagen (CGEN) integration progress post-acquisition and how it strengthens oncology leadership; also queried PD-1/VEGF bispecific (4404) competitive positioning given crowded landscape and earlier readouts from competitors.

Chris described successful CGEN integration across research, commercial, manufacturing; Seattle-based team largely retained, indicating cultural success. Multiple CGEN programs accelerated to Phase 3, including PADSEV combination studies and SV (beta-6 ADC). Also advancing 4404 (PD-1/VEGF bispecific) with 7 near-term or recently started trials including 2 large Phase 3 studies in colorectal, NSCLC, endometrial, and bladder cancers, with and without ADC combinations. 4404 shows 100-fold increased PD-1 affinity in presence of VEGF and binds all VEGF-A isoforms.

CGEN integration completed across multiple functions; majority of colleagues retainedSeattle site one of largest biopharma employer concentrationsPADSEV Phase 3 readouts 303, 304 completed; additional Phase 3 plannedSV in Phase 3 with additional study starting in 2026; targets 50K US, 200K+ global NSCLC patients

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Metsera resolution and Pfizer's response if Novo prevails. Not addressed substantively in the Q&A exchanges available.
Continue monitoring
2026 guidance framework at the year-end call. Resolved — FY2026 guidance (initially issued December 16, 2025 and reaffirmed today) set at $59.5–62.5B revenue and $2.80–$3.00 adjusted EPS. Revenue midpoint ($61.0B) sits ~$1.6B below FY2025 actual; EPS midpoint ($2.90) is 10% below FY2025's $3.22. The base contracts roughly $1.5B, consistent with the formally-disclosed LOE drag.
Resolved negatively
Q4 COVID prints against the "substantially de-risked" framing. Resolved — Comirnaty -35% and Paxlovid -70% operationally in Q4, materially soft, but FY revenue still landed at $62.6B inside the band, validating that non-COVID outperformance (9% operational growth) absorbed the COVID shortfall. Going forward COVID is sized at ~$5B for FY2026 — a meaningful floor disclosure.
Resolved positively
Effective tax rate sustainability into 2026. Resolved negatively — FY2025 adjusted effective tax rate landed at 12.7% (vs the ~11.0% prior guide), and FY2026 guides to ~15.0%, a 230bp step-up vs the FY2025 actual worth roughly $0.07–$0.08 of EPS. The FY2025 tax tailwind that drove the Q3 EPS raise was not structural.
Resolved negatively
Next-gen PCV Phase 3 starts in 2026. Not specifically addressed in available Q&A; subsumed into the broader "20 pivotal trial starts in 2026" framework but FDA alignment language not updated.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the FY2026 revenue guide holds in Q1 with COVID seasonality removed. Q1 is the cleanest non-COVID quarter; if ex-COVID growth is below 9% operational, the $59.5–62.5B band's low end becomes the working assumption.

MFN/TrumpRx quantification. Management has now named these as embedded headwinds but has not sized them inside the $1.5B LOE figure. Watch for a discrete dollar disclosure on the Q1 call.

Tax rate trajectory beyond 2026. The ~15.0% rate is up 230bps from FY2025 actual. Watch for any commentary on whether this normalizes or escalates further into 2027 — relevant because the FY2026 EPS step-down is partially tax-mechanical.

GLP-1 portfolio milestones — 3944 Phase 3 start, quarterly peptide PKPD data, 3944+3945 combination updates at ADA. These are the obesity assets that need to deliver to validate the Metsera capital deployment and the "end-of-decade growth" pitch.

Pivotal trial cadence against the "20 starts in 2026" target. Management has anchored the narrative on this number; watch quarterly progress reports for slippage, especially on the next-gen PCV adult 25 program that already slipped a year.

R&D spend trajectory — guide is up $0.5B at both ends. Watch whether the cost-realignment R&D savings reinvested in 2026 actually flow into pipeline starts or partially leak to opex.

Sources

  1. Pfizer Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (SEC EX-99): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/78003/000007800326000005/pfe-12312025xex99.htm

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