PHM · Q2 2026 Earnings

Neutral

PulteGroup

Reported July 22, 2026

30-second summary

Pulte delivered Q2 FY2026 revenue of $3.98B (-11% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $2.48 (+5.1% vs $2.36 consensus) on closings of 6,997 units, with gross margin printing 25.0% — 60bps above the top of the 24.1–24.4% guide management framed as the 2026 low point last quarter. Net new orders of 7,536 (+6% YoY), order value $4.1B (+5% YoY), and community count +8% YoY are all leading indicators pointing up, while FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed across every line item. The margin scare from Q1 did not repeat; the recovery thesis now has one quarter of evidence underneath it.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$2.48

+5.1% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$3.98B

-11.0% YoY

0.0% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

25.0%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$3.98B	$4.40B	-9.5%	$3.41B	+16.7%
EPS	$2.48	$3.03	-18.2%	$1.79	+38.5%
Gross margin	25.0%	27.0%	-200bps	24.4%	+60bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$3.6B to $3.8B	$3.98B	in-line	Met
Closings	Q2 FY2026	6,700 to 7,100 homes	6,997 units	+lower-middle of range	Beat
Average Sales Price	Q2 FY2026	$540,000 to $550,000	$544,000	in-line	Met
Gross Margin	Q2 FY2026	24.1% to 24.4%	25.0%	+60bps above guide	Beat
EPS (GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	—	$2.48	+5.1% vs consensus ($2.36)	Beat

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Closings (28,500 to 29,000 homes), ASP ($550,000 to $560,000), Gross Margin (24.5% to 25.0%), Community Count Growth (3% to 5% annually), SG&A Expense (9.5% to 9.7% of home sale revenues), Effective Tax Rate (approximately 24.5%), Land Acquisition and Development Spend ($5.4 billion)

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Home closings	6,997 units	—	—
Net new orders	7,536 units	—	—
Order value	$4.1 billion	—	—
Unit backlog	10,966 homes	—	—
Backlog value	$6.8 billion	—	—
Average sales price	$544,000	—	—
Community count	1,074	—	—
Mortgage capture rate	85%	—	—

Management tone

Q3-25 anchor (confidence-and-jobs problem) → Q4-25 anchor (2025 was "challenging"; FY26 reset) → Q1-26 anchor (BTO pivot, defensive posture) → Q2-26 anchor (execution beating the low point).

The "Q2 is the trough" framing was retired by the print itself. Three months ago management explicitly told investors Q2 would be the 2026 margin low point at 24.1–24.4%, and the qualitative FY2026 range was "likely toward the lower end" of 24.5–25.0%. This quarter the print came in at 25.0% — at the top of the FY range, not the bottom of the Q2 range. The press-release language reverted to standard hedged posture: "market conditions remain highly competitive" and "early signs that conditions may be stabilizing." The absence of the "toward the lower end" qualifier in the FY reaffirmation, combined with the actual print, is the signal.

"Stabilizing in select geographies" is new and qualifier-loaded. Q4 FY2025 introduced the "signs of bottoming in Dallas and San Antonio" language; Q1 FY2026 said demand "held up better than expected"; this quarter management added the geographic specificity of "select geographies" showing early stabilization. Combined with Texas closings improving from -27.7% (Q3) to -12.4% (Q4) to -8% (Q2), management's regional stabilization thesis is now anchored to hard numbers rather than hope.

Order and community count momentum was not celebrated in the release. +6% YoY orders, +8% YoY community count, +5% YoY order value — three of the strongest leading-indicator prints in this coverage window — sit inside a release that opens with "highly competitive" and "macroeconomic uncertainty." Two possible reads: (1) management is deliberately understating operational momentum to preserve upside optionality in Q3/Q4 prints, or (2) the demand strength is thinner than the headline numbers suggest. The 25.0% margin beat argues for read #1.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q2 FY2026 gross margin lands in the 24.1–24.4% guide or breaches the 24.1% floor. Cleared the top of the range by 60bps, printing 25.0% — the exact opposite outcome from the tail risk flagged. This is the single most important resolution on the print because it undermines the "H1 trough / H2 recovery" narrative in favor of "we may already be through the worst." FY2026 range of 24.5–25.0% now looks defensible without the "lower end" caveat management flagged in April. Status: Resolved positively

Whether Q2 net new orders sustain the Q1 pace. Orders of 7,536 came in below Q1's 8,034 but were +6% YoY on a growing community count. The mechanical H2 math (closings needed to hit 28,500–29,000 FY) is now supported by a backlog that grew QoQ to 10,966 units. The concern that orders would collapse below 7,000 did not materialize. Status: Resolved positively

Incentive load trajectory from 10.9%. The press release did not disclose a Q2 incentive figure; the 25.0% gross margin beat implies incentives moderated or that mix/cost offsets outweighed continued incentive load. Without the transcript, the specific data point is unavailable — but the margin outcome argues the mix-shift thesis is working. Status: Continue monitoring

Whether ASP recovers toward the FY2026 range of $550–560K, or stays near $542K. Held at $544K — essentially flat with Q1's $542K, still ~$6–16K below the FY guide range. The margin beat came without ASP recovery, which is arguably the more interesting signal: mix/cost management drove the beat, not price. Status: Continue monitoring

Active adult (Del Webb) mix trajectory. Not disclosed in the press release. Status: Continue monitoring

BTO share of net new orders. Not disclosed in the press release. Status: Continue monitoring

Whether the qualitative land cost commentary translates into a numeric lot cost revision. No numeric revision to the +7–8% lot cost guide; FY land spend of $5.4B reaffirmed. Status: Not resolved

H1 free cash flow cumulative tracking against the $1B FY guide. Operating cash flow figure not disclosed in the press release summary as provided. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q3 FY2026 gross margin holds above 24.5% and validates the "Q2 was the trough" read. Two consecutive quarters at 24.5%+ would formally invalidate the "lower end of 24.5–25.0%" framing and pull FY2026 into the upper half of the range — that's a mid-single-digit EPS revision.

Whether Q3 net new orders sustain the +6% YoY pace or roll over. With FY closings guide reaffirmed at 28,500–29,000, H2 requires ~14,540 closings (H1 delivered 14,053). Orders holding above 7,000 keeps the backlog supportive; a drop below 6,500 forces the FY closings question back onto the table.

Whether Texas closings continue to improve from -8% or reset lower. The three-quarter arc (-27.7% → -12.4% → -8%) is the strongest regional signal of stabilization; a fourth quarter of narrowing decline would let management take a victory lap.

Whether Northeast (-26.6%) and West (-20.3%) require community count or land deployment cuts. These regions have now underperformed for three consecutive quarters at 15%+ declines; management has so far defended footprint in both.

Incentive load disclosure on the Q3 call. If Q2's 25.0% margin was delivered with incentives still near 10.9%, the mix/cost lever is stronger than framed. If incentives dropped, the demand backdrop is materially better than management's hedged language suggests. Either read matters.

Whether the +8% YoY community count growth pace pulls the FY guide from +3–5% to +5–7%. Second consecutive quarter running above the guided range; a formal upward revision would signal management's confidence in FY2027 volume runway.

Sources

PulteGroup Q2 FY2026 Earnings Press Release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/822416/000082241626000034/ex991earningspr06302026.htm

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