PLD · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Prologis

Reported April 16, 2026

30-second summary

Prologis delivered Core FFO of $1.50, same-store cash NOI of +8.8%, average occupancy of 95.4%, and net effective rent change of +31.9% — and used the print to raise every operational line in the FY26 guide just one quarter after issuing it. Core FFO moves to $6.07–$6.23 (+80bps midpoint), same-store cash NOI to 6.25–7.00% (+50/+25bps), and O&M development starts to $4.5–5.5B (PLD share $3.5–4.5B) with ~40% allocated to data center build-to-suits — a structural expansion of the platform, with the data center pipeline now sized at 5.6GW representing "well over $15 billion of investment potential." This is the quantified version of the inflection management called in Q3 and committed to in Q4: the operating book is now running ahead of a guide that was itself the most aggressive in the cycle.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$1.50

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$2.30B

+7.4% YoY

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.30B	+7.4%	$2.25B	+2.0%
EPS	$1.50	—	$1.44	+4.2%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Core FFO per Share (non-GAAP)	FY 2026	$6.00 to $6.20	$6.07 to $6.23	+$0.07 to +$0.03 at low end; +$0.03 at high end (midpoint +80bps)	Raised
Core FFO per Share (excluding Net Promote)	FY 2026	$6.05 to $6.25	$6.12 to $6.28	+$0.07 at low end; +$0.03 at high end	Raised
Net Earnings per Share (GAAP)	FY 2026	$3.70 to $4.00	$3.80 to $4.05	+$0.10 at low end; +$0.05 at high end	Raised
Average Occupancy - Prologis Share	FY 2026	94.75% to 95.75%	95.00% to 95.75%	+25bps at low end	Raised
Same Store NOI - Cash - Prologis Share	FY 2026	5.75% to 6.75%	6.25% to 7.00%	+50bps at low end; +25bps at high end	Raised
Same Store NOI - Net Effective - Prologis Share	FY 2026	4.25% to 5.25%	4.75% to 5.50%	+50bps at low end; +25bps at high end	Raised
Development Stabilizations - Prologis Share Owned and Managed	FY 2026	$2.25B to $2.75B	$2.25B to $2.75B and $2.5B to $3.0B	High end of second range +$0.25B vs prior single range	Raised
Development Starts - Prologis Share Owned and Managed	FY 2026	$3.0B to $4.0B	$3.5B to $4.5B and $4.5B to $5.5B	High end of combined range +$1.5B ($5.5B vs $4.0B)	Raised
Acquisitions - Prologis Share Owned and Managed	FY 2026	$1.0B to $1.5B	$1.0B to $1.5B and $2.0B to $3.0B	High end of combined range +$1.5B ($3.0B vs $1.5B)	Raised
Dispositions - Prologis Share Owned and Managed	FY 2026	$1.75B to $2.25B	$1.75B to $2.25B and $2.5B to $3.0B	High end of combined range +$0.75B ($3.0B vs $2.25B)	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Development Stabilizations - Estimated Value Creation	$387M

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
NOI (Prologis Share) - Annualized	$6.9B
Core FFO per Share	$1.50
Average Occupancy - Prologis Share	95.3%
Same Store NOI Change (Cash) - Prologis Share	8.8%
Rent Change (Net Effective) - Prologis Share	31.9%
Data Center Power Pipeline Secured or Advanced Stage	5.6GW
Strategic Capital - Third Party AUM	$235B

Management tone

Q2-2025 → Q3-2025 → Q4-2025 → Q1-2026: "Stability returning, choppy ahead" → "Inflection arrived" → "Inflection quantified into FY26 plan" → "Compounding platform with data centers as the operating model"

Three quarters ago Prologis was deliberately framing the FY25 guide raise as mechanical stability rather than demand strength, and management refused to forecast the next one to two quarters. This quarter management raised every operational line of the FY26 guide ten weeks into the year, with the FY rent-change framing held at "approach 40%" despite Q1 printing at +31.9%. The anchor quote: "We're building a broader, more resilient platform, one that is positioned to compound growth over time." The shift this signals: confidence has moved from cycle-positioned (defensive) to platform-compounding (offensive), and management is now willing to underwrite an FY guide that the just-reported quarter has already overshot operationally — a posture they explicitly avoided as recently as Q2-2025.

The data center business has graduated again, for the fourth quarter in a row. In Q2-2025 it was a $300M discrete starts item "not previously guided." In Q3-2025 it was "one of the most significant value creation opportunities in our history." In Q4-2025 it was sized at ~40% of $4.0–5.0B O&M starts. This quarter it has its own pipeline disclosure (5.6GW), its own forward sizing ("well over $15 billion of investment potential"), and Q1 saw $1.3B of data center build-to-suits — already a majority of the implied full-year data center share of the new O&M starts range. The anchor quote: "The depth of customer interest for our data center offerings is significant, and we believe our ability to bring together land, power, and development expertise is a key differentiator for our business." The shift this signals: data centers have moved from "strategic priority being scoped" to "competitive moat already monetized," and the capitalization-structure question outstanding from Q3 is now being scoped through new strategic-capital vehicles (GIC, LaCasse) rather than the build-and-sell model alone.

The geopolitical framing has flipped from Q4's "tariff uncertainty as planning assumption" to active monitoring without behavioral evidence of demand impact. Last quarter management said tariff policy was "now treated more as a planning assumption rather than an impediment"; this quarter Dan said "The risk today is that uncertainty slows customer decision-making. We have not seen meaningful evidence of that to date," with customers reporting "2026 business plans are unchanged." The shift this signals: the macro overlay is now being actively tested against the operating book in real time — and management is willing to lead the print with the data refutation rather than the macro disclaimer, which is the higher-confidence posture.

The rent narrative has shifted from "mark-to-market spread compressing as expected" to "market rents inflecting after 2.5 years of decline." Tim noted "an uptake in market rents this quarter, the first increase in two and a half years" with global market rents up 30bps. This is qualitatively different from the prior three quarters, which all framed rent growth as captured spread on a normalizing base. The shift this signals: if market rents are now inflecting at the same time the in-place mark-to-market spread is compressing, the FY27+ Core FFO composition could look healthier than the post-Q4 "occupancy plus starts conversion" framing implied — but management hasn't yet quantified this in forward guidance.

Strategic capital has been promoted from "secondary platform initiative" to "managed-share line item on every operational guide." The O&M vs. PLD-share split across starts, acquisitions, dispositions, contributions and stabilizations institutionalizes the platform within the operating disclosure framework, and the $2.6B+ of third-party equity raised across five vehicles in the last two quarters (GIC, LaCasse, Japan acquisition vehicle, Agility Fund, CREIT) validates the deep-pipeline language from Q4. Dan framed strategic capital as the second of three top priorities. The shift this signals: the strategic capital platform is no longer being scoped for FY27 — it is the operating model of FY26, and the O&M-total disclosure is the primary expansion vector across every capital deployment line.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Data center scale-up as structural growth driverOccupancy resilience and rent growth inflectionStrategic capital platform expansion and investor demandGeopolitical uncertainty managed through customer engagement and business fundamentalsPortfolio breadth across logistics, data centers, and energyCapital deployment acceleration ($2.1B starts in Q1, $4.5-5.5B full-year guidance)

Risks management surfaced:

Geopolitical conflict in Middle East introducing economic uncertainty through energy prices and inflation pressureRisk that uncertainty slows customer decision-making (though not yet observed)Potential for economic slowdown to dampen rent growthPossible uneven quarter-to-quarter rent growth conditions

Q&A highlights

Ronald Camden · Morgan Stanley

Question on deceleration in leasing spreads in the quarter and how management is balancing occupancy versus pricing going forward.

Management attributed spread deceleration to mix effects, with 40% of roll happening in the West region where conditions are softer and mark-to-market is lower. They noted a wide mix of market conditions across geographies and are pursuing a deal-by-deal approach balancing rent growth with occupancy preservation.

40% of roll occurred in West regionApproach is market-by-market and deal-by-dealPushing rents in many markets while preserving occupancy

Michael Griffin · Evercore ISI

Question on data center development pipeline risks from local municipality pushback and project shelving, and confidence in converting pipeline with secured power.

Management expressed strong confidence in the data center pipeline, noting 1.3 gigawatts under LOI with expected three years of business. They indicated customer demand remains robust and are guiding on development for the first time.

1.3 gigawatts of data center deals under LOIPipeline represents ~3 years of businessFirst-time guidance on data center development expectedStrong customer demand signals

Nick Joseph · Citi

Question on assumed development margins for new data center starts and how they compare to historical 25-50% margin range.

Management confirmed data center margins remain within the 25-50% range, which is 25-50% better than typical logistics margins. Later clarified these are absolute margins (25-50%), not relative to logistics.

Data center margins: 25-50%More spec activity than prior quartersBlend of logistics build-to-suits and spec in start volume

Blaine Heck · Wells Fargo

Question on whether strong Q1 occupancy outperformance suggests upside guidance or reflects conservatism, and potential for Q2 downside.

Management noted ~20 bps outperformance in Q1 but raised full-year guidance by 3.75 bps at midpoint, reflecting both some pulled-forward occupancy (surprise renewals) and strong pipeline confidence with large proposal sizes.

Q1 occupancy outperformed by ~20 basis pointsFull-year guidance raised by 3.75 basis points at midpointLarge proposal pipeline provides confidence for remainder of yearSome occupancy pulled forward via surprise renewals

Vince Tabone · Green Street

Question on materiality and sustainability of data center suppliers leasing logistics warehouse space as a demand driver.

Management confirmed this is a new structural demand driver. Data center supplier logistics leasing has grown from less than 5% of new leasing a year ago to 10% currently, with an even higher share of forward pipeline. Tenants are signing with healthy lease terms and shifting to regionalized distribution networks.

Data center supplier logistics demand grew from <5% to 10% of new leasing YoYHigher share of forward-looking pipelineTenants signing with healthy lease termsShift toward regionalized distribution close to data center production

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Specific data center project announcements in Q1 and H1 — Q1 delivered $1.3B of data center build-to-suits and a 5.6GW pipeline disclosure with "well over $15 billion of investment potential," and management is issuing first-time forward guidance on data center development specifically. The ~40% allocation framing from Q4 is being upheld and quantified further.

Resolved positively

Same-store cash NOI Q1 vs. the +5.75–6.75% FY guide; risk if below 5% — Q1 printed +8.8%, far above even the new raised range of +6.25–7.00%. The Q1 seasonal-drop scenario management flagged in Q4 did not materialize at the NOI line, and the FY guide was raised +50bps at the floor.

Resolved positively

Net effective rent change holding in the high 30s–low 40s — Q1 printed +31.9%, below the "high 30s or roughly 40%" FY framing. Management still expects FY rent change to "approach 40%," which requires acceleration through the remainder of the year. Mix-driven (40% West region in the Q1 roll per the Morgan Stanley exchange), but the trajectory is now closer to the watch-list "low 30s warning" threshold than to the FY guide.

Continue monitoring

Disposition execution against $1.75–$2.25B FY26 guide — The FY26 dispositions PLD-share guide is held at $1.75–2.25B and a new O&M total of $2.5–3.0B was disclosed. Q1 total dispositions and contributions were ~$1.2B per Tim's remarks, a strong start.

Continue monitoring

Strategic capital AUM growth and new vehicle disclosure — Strategic Capital third-party AUM stands at $235B, with $2.6B of third-party equity raised across five vehicles in the last two quarters (GIC, LaCasse, Japan acquisition vehicle, Agility Fund, CREIT), and the FY26 capital deployment lines now disclose an O&M total alongside PLD share. This is structural integration of the platform into the operating guide.

Resolved positively

Data center capitalization structure disclosure — No discrete data center JV yet, but Dan noted "very constructive conversations with global investors over the last two and a half quarters" with multiple options being evaluated. The current build-on-balance-sheet-then-sell-stabilized model is working, and the new GIC venture explicitly includes US build-to-suit development. Status: Partially resolved (capitalization model articulated, discrete vehicle still in scoping)

What to watch into next quarter

Whether net effective rent change re-accelerates from Q1's +31.9% toward the FY "approach 40%" framing — a Q2 print below 32% would suggest the FY guide is at risk and the West region mix overhang is structural rather than transitory

Same-store cash NOI sustainability above the high end of the raised 6.25–7.00% range — Q1 at +8.8% has built a comfortable cushion, but Q2 needs to print above 6% to validate the raise wasn't a Q1-only artifact

Data center starts run-rate — Q1 delivered $1.3B against an implied FY data center share of ~$1.8–2.2B at the high end of O&M starts (40% of $4.5–5.5B); H1 needs to show continued momentum or the implied data center share of FY starts will need to be raised again

Strategic capital fundraising pace — $2.6B across five vehicles in two quarters validates the deep-pipeline language; Q2 needs to show continued deployment into these vehicles for the O&M expansion to be visible in reported figures

Disposition and contribution execution at the new O&M totals — Q2 needs to show $1.0B+ of combined disposition/contribution volume to track to the back-half ramp

Tariff/macro pass-through evidence — management led with "no meaningful evidence" of demand slowdown; Q2 customer decision velocity (proposal-to-LOI conversion, lease starts vs. signings) is the test of whether the macro overlay stays a background variable

Sources

Prologis Q1 2026 press release / 8-K exhibit, SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526157977/pld-ex99_1.htm
Prologis prior-quarter briefs (Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025) for guidance comparison and tone arc

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