PLTR · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Palantir

Reported May 4, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue grew 85% YoY to $1.633B in Q1, beating the prior $1.532–$1.536B guide by ~$97M; U.S. commercial revenue jumped 133% to $595M and U.S. revenue crossed $1.28B (+104% YoY). The Rule of 40 score printed at 145% (up from 127 last quarter). Management raised FY26 revenue guidance by ten points of growth to 71% YoY ($7.65–$7.66B), called it "our largest-ever full-year revenue guidance raise," and set the FY26 Rule of 40 guide at 129%. The acceleration debate is closed for a fourth straight quarter — the open question is whether the FY guide is still chasing reality or has finally caught up.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$0.33

+17.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$1.63B

+85.0% YoY

+6.1% vs est.

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

86.8%

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

46.2%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$1.63B	+85.0%	$1.41B	+16.1%
EPS	$0.33	—	$0.25	+32.0%
Gross margin	86.8%	—	84.7%	+210bps
Operating margin	46.2%	—	40.8%	+540bps

Guidance

Largest-ever full-year guidance raise: FY2026 revenue raised 10 points to 71% YoY growth and $7.65–7.66B; U.S. commercial revenue raised 5 points to ≥120% YoY; adjusted operating income and FCF also raised; Q1 revenue beat but adjusted OpInc missed.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$1.532 – $1.536 billion	$1.633 billion	+$0.097–0.101 billion above guide	Beat
Adjusted income from operations	Q1 FY2026	$870 – $874 million	$754 million	-$116–120 million below guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$1.797 – $1.801 billion	+79.7–80.1% YoY
Adjusted income from operations	Q2 FY2026	$1.063 – $1.067 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY2026	$7.182 – $7.198 billion (61% YoY)	$7.650 – $7.662 billion (71% YoY)	+$0.452–0.480 billion; +10 percentage points YoY growth	Raised
U.S. commercial revenue	FY2026	in excess of $3.144 billion (at least 115% YoY)	in excess of $3.224 billion (at least 120% YoY)	+$0.080 billion; +5 percentage points YoY growth	Raised
Adjusted income from operations	FY2026	$4.126 – $4.142 billion	$4.440 – $4.452 billion	+$0.298–0.326 billion	Raised
Adjusted free cash flow	FY2026	$3.925 – $4.125 billion	$4.2 – $4.4 billion	+$0.075–0.475 billion	Raised
Rule of 40 score	FY2026	118%	129%	+11 percentage points	Raised

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
U.S. Commercial Revenue	$0.595B	+133.0%
U.S. Government Revenue	$0.687B	+84.0%

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Total Contract Value (TCV)	$2.41 billion
TCV YoY Growth	61%
U.S. Commercial TCV	$1.176 billion
U.S. Commercial TCV YoY Growth	45%
U.S. Commercial Remaining Deal Value (RDV)	$4.92 billion
U.S. Commercial RDV YoY Growth	112%
Deals Closed ($1M+)	206

Profitability

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Adjusted Operating Margin	60%

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026	YoY
U.S. Revenue	$1.282B	+104.0%

Management tone

Q2 25 combative-triumphalist → Q3 25 systemic-claim → Q4 25 categorical separation (N-of-1) → Q1 26 ideological maximalism. The arc this quarter shifts from "we are the only viable platform" to "the entire token economy exists to feed our governance layer."

Three quarters ago AI competition was framed as the model-maker race; last quarter as commodity cognition; this quarter as Jevons paradox feeding Palantir directly. Sankar this quarter: "Tokens are the new coal. AIP is the train." Cheaper tokens are recast as the cause of compounding Palantir demand because more tokens mean more slop requiring more governance. The shift is structurally important — it inverts the bear case (model commoditization erodes Palantir's pricing) into a bull case (model commoditization expands the task surface that needs ontology).

The "load-bearing institutions" framing has fully replaced the "enterprise software" framing. Karp made the categorical claim explicit: "When you want AI to work in production, in a real enterprise, at real scale, where there is no room for slop, there is only one platform, AIP." Combined with the "doing what a normal company would do with 7,000 salespeople with seven people" line, management is positioning the comp set as having an N of one. The multiple debate this resets is no longer MSFT/ORCL — it's whether any comparable exists.

U.S. national security moved from priority segment to absolute constraint. Karp made it doctrinal: "we 100% prioritize this nation's security over any other variable." The 84% U.S. government growth print is the financial expression of that prioritization — and Sankar specifically called out the Department of War "pulling as much of that into 26 as possible," implying the government acceleration is policy-driven, not cycle-driven.

The FDE/ontology/AIP stack was reframed from product portfolio to inseparable operating system. Sankar collapsed them into one: "AIP is the default builder platform in the Department of War, with thousands of developers using AIFD…currently that combination is available from one company, and that is us." Implication: the competitive moat is no longer any single product feature but the integration itself — which is the hardest thing for a hyperscaler or systems integrator to copy.

Karp removed the last hedge on hypergrowth-and-profitability coexisting. This quarter he anchored on a single number: "Our free cash flow this quarter is larger than our revenue a year ago in the same quarter." That phrasing locks management to defending both growth and FCF margin through FY26 — the 129% Rule of 40 guide is the embodiment of that commitment, and there is no fallback narrative if either line slips.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Ontology as moat against AI slop and commodity cognitionEnterprise autonomy and load-bearing institution dominanceJevons paradox: cheaper tokens drive exponential task demand, requiring governance platformsU.S. national security absolute prioritization with commercial leverage benefitLegacy software death and replacement at enterprise scaleTalent attraction through meaningful work and differentiated outcomes

Risks management surfaced:

Continued resolver CR (Continuing Resolution) impacting defense budgets despite Maven/Titan momentumCompetitors' enterprise solutions from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google creating customer confusionReputational risk from defense/Israel work creating social friction in talent recruitmentSupply constraints on high-talent engineering limiting scaling velocityPotential market misvaluation if competitors successfully replicate ontology-based governance

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q1 FY26 revenue lands above the $1.536B high end. Decisively yes — $1.633B beat the high end by $97M. YoY growth of 85% blew past the guide-implied ~74%; the "guide finally catching up" thesis is rejected for a fourth consecutive quarter.

Resolved positively

Whether U.S. commercial holds above 130% YoY in Q1 26. Yes — $595M at +133% YoY. Sequentially the segment added $88M and the FY26 guide was raised to ≥120%, implying the 2H ramp from this base is now substantially de-risked.

Resolved positively

U.S. commercial RDV continuing to compound. RDV rose to $4.92B, +12% QoQ and +112% YoY. The backlog continues to support the guide and is growing faster than revenue.

Resolved positively

Adjusted operating margin holding in the mid-50s as 2026 hiring hits OpEx. Adjusted operating margin printed at 60% — 900bps above the implied prior guide. The hiring ramp has not compressed margins; the FY26 Rule of 40 guide of 129% is the strongest signal management is comfortable defending both lines simultaneously.

Resolved positively

Strategic commercial contracts contribution. Revenue from these contracts was $3M (0.2% of revenue); management guided to less than half a million dollars in each remaining quarter, confirming the deliberate de-emphasis flagged last quarter.

Resolved negatively

Any quantification of MAVEN, SHIP OS, or Warp Speed. Partial — Maven usage was disclosed as doubling in the past four months and 4x over the past 12 months across services, combatant commands, joint staff, and intelligence community. ShipOS got operational color (bill-of-materials approval time 200 hours → 15 seconds; contract review cycles +57–73% faster; material planning time -94%). No discrete program-level dollar figures were disclosed. Status: Partially resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q2 FY26 revenue lands above the $1.801B high end. The Q2 guide implies ~80% YoY on the $1.00B Q2 25 base — a deceleration from Q1's 85%. Given Q1 beat the high end by $97M, a beat below $90M will be the first signal the guide is finally compressing toward reality.

U.S. commercial RDV trajectory. Q1's sequential RDV growth of 12% sustained the compounding pattern. A material deceleration in Q2 would suggest the FY26 ≥120% U.S. commercial guide starts to rely on net-new bookings rather than backlog conversion.

Whether adjusted operating margin holds above 55%. Q1 came in at 60%; the FY26 guide implies an average of ~58%. The 2026 hiring ramp Karp has repeatedly flagged still hasn't fully hit OpEx — a print below 55% in Q2 would be the first margin warning.

U.S. government growth sustaining above 70% YoY. Q1's 84% benefited from the "Department of War pulling 26 forward" dynamic Sankar flagged. A normalization toward 60–65% would suggest the acceleration was budget-cycle timing rather than a sustained tier change.

Rule of 40 score trajectory vs. the 129% FY guide. Q1 printed 145%, well above the FY guide. Sustaining above the implied FY pace through Q2 would suggest the FY guide is again conservative; a drop toward 129% would indicate the Q1 print was the peak.

Any program-level dollar disclosure on Maven, SHIP OS, or AIFD. Maven usage multiples and ShipOS operational metrics were disclosed, but contract-value figures remain absent. A single contract-value print would convert the 84% government growth from policy-driven to vertical-anchored — and reset the defense TAM debate.

Whether the "tokens are the new coal" framing gets traction with skeptics. Management has now committed publicly to the Jevons-paradox thesis as the structural growth driver. If foundation-model pricing collapses further in Q2 and Palantir's commercial deal velocity does not visibly accelerate, the framing weakens.

Sources

Palantir Q1 FY2026 press release, filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000026/a2026q1ex991pressrelease.htm
Palantir Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A)

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