tapebrief

PNC · Q2 2025 Earnings

Neutral

PNC Financial Services

Reported July 16, 2025

30-second summary

30-second take: PNC printed $5.66B of revenue in Q2, up 4.6% YoY and 3.8% QoQ as reported — but Q2 2024 included a one-time $754M gain from the Visa shares exchange, so underlying YoY growth is materially higher (~+22%). Diluted EPS was $3.85 and net income $1.63B. NIM stepped up to 2.80% (from 2.78% in Q1 and 2.60% a year ago) and the efficiency ratio improved to 60% from 62%, while credit metrics (NPAs 0.66% of loans + OREO, NCOs 25bps annualized) remain benign and ACL coverage of nonperforming loans rose to 215%. Retail Banking ROAA of 4.78% is down ~110bps YoY, but that delta reflects the Visa gain sitting in the prior-year base rather than a deterioration in underlying profitability. This is Tapebrief's first coverage of PNC, so cross-quarter guidance comparison and watch-list resolution will begin with next quarter's brief.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2025

$3.85

Revenue

Q2 FY2025

$5.66B

+4.6% YoY

Operating margin

Q2 FY2025

59.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2025
MetricQ2 FY2025YoY
Revenue$5.66B+4.6%
EPS$3.85
Operating margin59.8%

Guidance

Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.

Capital & returns

Q2 FY2025
SegmentQ2 FY2025
Nonperforming Assets to Total Loans0.66%
Allowance for Credit Losses to Nonperforming Loans215%
Total Deposits$426.7 billion
Return on Average Assets - Retail Banking4.78%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2025
SegmentQ2 FY2025
Net Interest Margin2.80%
Efficiency Ratio60%
Noninterest Income to Total Revenue37%
Net Charge-offs to Average Loans (annualized)0.25%

Management tone

No tone-shift analysis available for this quarter.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

M&A acceleration with concrete evidence (30% YoY growth, backlog rising fifth consecutive quarter)Capital flexibility enabling shareholder returns and organic deploymentAI-driven operational transformation via agentic autonomous capabilitiesFinancing business hitting consecutive revenue records (sixth quarter, now one-third of FIC+equities)Alternatives fundraising momentum ($18B raised, $3.3T AUM record)Regulatory regime recalibration as tailwind for earnings and capital efficiency

Risks management surfaced:

Persistent geopolitical concerns, particularly in Middle EastTrade agreements yet to materialize and unknown impact from higher tariffsUncertainty in industries sensitive to trade policyChallenging harvesting environment for principal investments despite strong banking backdropPotential SCB volatility from trading losses affecting future CET1 requirements

Q&A highlights

Devin Ryan · Citizens JMP

How has Goldman's coverage philosophy and structural approach to top 150 clients changed since 2019 (ranking in top three with 125 of top 150 clients, up from 77)? What are the key differences in coverage versus increasing capital, and how can this approach be deployed more broadly across the franchise?

Management highlighted integrated global banking and markets approach, behavioral changes across the firm, and strategic financing investments that create virtuous cycles with clients. They emphasized covering ~12,000 clients in investment banking and thousands in trading, with focus on accountability for improving client relationships and market share across a much broader footprint than just top 150.

125 of top 150 clients now ranking Goldman in top three (up from 77 in 2019)~12,000 clients covered in investment bankingThousands of clients covered across trading businessesIntegration of global banking and markets cited as key enabler

Erica Nazarian · UBS

Given current CET1 standardized at 14.5% versus potential new minimum of 10.9%, what regulatory constructs or other factors does management need to see to work down the buffer from 50-100 bps to something more material?

Management stated need for greater transparency on regulatory models, stress testing, and capital calculations. They identified three ongoing regulatory discussions: ESLR, GSIB calibration (noting significant G-SIB contribution to 8-year capital increases), and stress testing/SCB transparency. Expects 6-12 months for clarity. Near-term deployment will focus on client financing acceleration and shareholder returns via buybacks.

Current CET1 standardized: 14.5%Potential new minimum: 10.9%Target buffer: 50-100 basis pointsThree regulatory areas under discussion: ESLR, GSIB calibration, stress testing/SCB

Chris McGrady · KBW

Is the 15-17% medium-term ROE target still appropriate given regulatory and macro environment? What will drive achievement—numerator (revenue) or denominator (capital)?

Management confirmed 15-17% ROE/ROTE targets remain appropriate and express higher confidence in achieving them. Growth in asset wealth management (improving margins and returns) and strong global banking/markets performance are key. Excess capital enables both incremental client activity and lower denominator, creating dual tailwind to existing strategy.

Target ROE/ROTE: 15-17% (mid-teens, slightly higher)Key driver: asset wealth management margin and return improvementsSecondary driver: global banking and markets performance mid-cycleExcess capital enables dual benefits: incremental client activity + lower capital denominator

Dan Fannin · Jefferies

If investment banking accelerates with more M&A and issuance activity, can trading remain as robust, or should we expect moderation? Also, how is Goldman positioned for alternative asset distribution in wealth channel given potential regulatory changes to retirement accounts?

On trading: Management noted markets business is large, diverse, and global; strength in different areas offsets weakness in others (commodities/mortgages example). Constructive macro environment with IB activity benefits markets. On alternatives: Goldman is actively building third-party wealth distribution partnerships, focused on retirement channel changes, and expects to benefit meaningfully from regulatory openings.

Markets business operates across all asset classes globallyDifferent quarters have different drivers (e.g., weakness in commodities and mortgages this quarter)Active third-party wealth distribution partnerships being builtSignificant opportunity seen in retirement account alternative asset inclusion

Saul Martinez · HSBC

Does the dividend increase imply core earnings power of ~$12/share (or $48 annualized) assuming one-third payout ratio? What does management's dividend policy signal about sustainable earnings capacity?

Management emphasized firm has 'enormous core earnings power' and built more durable revenue base. Current dividend not at 33% payout ratio yet, but noted payout ratios could theoretically be higher given capital generation. Focus is on sustainable, consistently growing dividend (major reset from nominal prior dividend), not speculating on specific payout levels. Underscored building durable revenues and growing franchise as core strategy.

Firm characterizes as having 'enormous core earnings power'Current dividend payout ratio materially below 33%Strategic shift toward sustainable, consistently growing dividendDurable revenue growth across asset/wealth management and other segments cited as foundation

What to watch into next quarter

NIM trajectory above 2.80%. NIM has stepped higher for several consecutive quarters; watch whether it expands further or plateaus as deposit costs catch up.

Efficiency ratio below 60%. Operating leverage is the cleanest path to EPS growth from here; sustained progress through 60% would validate the cost trend.

Net charge-offs holding under 30bps. Credit normalization has been the consensus 2H worry across regionals; PNC at 25bps gives room, but watch CRE and consumer lines specifically.

Deposit balance and mix. $426.7B is the funding anchor; any meaningful outflow or remix toward higher-cost categories pressures the NIM story.

Capital return cadence. With credit stable and earnings building, watch whether PNC accelerates buybacks alongside the dividend.

Sources

  1. PNC Q2 FY2025 Financial Supplement, filed with the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/713676/000071367625000048/q22025financialsupplement.htm

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