PPL · Q1 2026 Earnings

Q2 25: PA $17–19B opportunity introduced → Q3 25: KY CPCN approved, PA pipeline 20.5 GW, capex framework retired → Q4 25: $23B plan rebased, growth horizon extended to 2029 → Q1 26: Pipeline 28.3 GW with 10 GW signed ESAs, KY load nearly doubles, JV announcement telegraphed for 2026.

The Blackstone JV has moved from "exploratory" to "executing reservation agreements" — and management has put a date on it. Three quarters ago the JV was a structural concept dependent on yet-to-be-signed ESAs. Two quarters ago it was "operationally ready" with land and gas capacity. Last quarter it carried zero earnings contribution by management's own choice. This quarter management says directly from the call: "we are executing multiple gas turbine reservation agreements and have submitted requests for multiple generation projects into PJM's interconnection queue for certain land sites currently under our control…the progress to date meaningfully increases the probability of JV own generation over time." The CEO went further in Q&A: "I'd be surprised if we weren't announcing something meaningful this year on that, Jeremy, but these are very complex agreements that have to go through a lot of different parts of the hyperscalers to get to the finish line." After four quarters of "advancing discussions" without a signature, putting "this year" on the record is a credibility commitment management did not have to make.

The PA pipeline disclosure has reached a level of detail that retires investor skepticism about whether the demand is real. From the year-end update baseline of 25.2 GW, the advanced-stage pipeline expanded another 12% to 28.3 GW this quarter: "Projects in advanced stages of planning now total 28.3 gigawatts, up another 12% from the 25.2 gigawatts we discussed on our year-end update call…Of that total, about 10 gigawatts now have signed ESAs…five gigawatts of the projects in advanced stages are already under construction." Signed ESAs and steel-in-the-ground projects are not load-forecast theatre. The composition has matured from queue depth to executed contracts.

Kentucky has had its load assumptions nearly doubled inside one CPCN cycle. The CPCN that was approved last October assumed 1.8 GW of demand growth by 2032. This quarter: "we now project approximately 3.5 gigawatts of expected new load by 2032, compared to about 1.8 gigawatts assumed in our most recent CPCN forecast" — with the broader pipeline at 12.9 GW, up nearly 4 GW from year-end. A 94% upward revision in the planning assumption underpinning the just-approved CPCN essentially guarantees another CPCN filing is coming; management said LG&E and KU "could be in a position to file another CPCN as early as this year," with the CFO adding that it is "certainly becoming more likely that we file another CPCN later this year, especially if we get one or more hyperscalers committed."

The Pennsylvania rate case lands as a template, not a fight. Q2 25 framing was that PPL had been out of rate cases for affordability reasons. This quarter management can claim the template worked: "the settlement would result in bill increases that are less than 4% across all customer classes, despite staying out for those 10 years. And it keeps our delivery rates among the lowest in the state…our filing reflected the results of effective cost efficiency and prudent investments over that period that have delivered significant value for our customers, while keeping O&M increases 25% below inflation." PUC decision expected end of June with new rates effective July 1 — meaning H2 26 carries the rate uplift, supporting the upper-half-of-range scenario implied by the Q1 run-rate.

Generation partnerships have moved from "exploring" to specific projects with capital tags. A year ago Rye and X-Energy were exploratory names. This quarter: a 266 MW pump storage project with Rye, and a Kentucky SMR collaboration with X-Energy at an "initial cost estimate of approximately $1.3 billion" supported by "recently enacted legislation supporting nuclear development." These are still optional projects — the X-Energy SMR is explicitly "not in our current capital plan or earnings projections" — but capital figures and regulatory pathways replace conceptual framings.