Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

QCOM · Q2 2026 Earnings

Qualcomm

Reported April 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take. Qualcomm delivered Q2 revenue of $10.60B (–3% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 at the top of the prior $2.45–2.65 guided range, with QCT handsets landing at $6.02B — just above the ~$6B memory-constrained target — and automotive accelerating to +38% YoY at a record $1.33B. The Q3 guide of $9.2–10.0B (midpoint $9.6B) confirms the handset trough management telegraphed last quarter, but two new disclosures reframe the forward narrative: a custom-silicon hyperscaler engagement with initial shipments in the December quarter, and automotive exiting FY26 above a $6B annualized run-rate. The China handset bottom is now explicitly called for Q3.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$2.65

+3.5% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$10.60B

-3.5% YoY

+0.2% vs est.

Gross margin

Q2 FY2026

53.8%

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

21.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$10.60B	-3.5%	$12.25B	-13.5%
EPS	$2.65	—	$3.50	-24.3%
Gross margin	53.8%	—	54.6%	-80bps
Operating margin	21.8%	—	27.5%	-570bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued one quarter forward. The Prior-guide column references the guide issued last quarter for the period just reported; the New-guide column is for next quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$10.2B - $11.0B	$10.599B	+$0.0B above midpoint (midpoint $10.6B)	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	Q2 FY2026	$2.45 - $2.65	$2.65	+$0.10 above midpoint (midpoint $2.55)	Beat
QCT Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$8.8B - $9.4B	$9.076B	-$0.324B below midpoint (midpoint $9.1B)	Missed
QCT Handset Revenue	Q2 FY2026	approximately $6.0B	$6.024B	+$0.024B above guide	Beat
QTL Revenue	Q2 FY2026	$1.2B - $1.4B	$1.382B	-$0.018B below midpoint (midpoint $1.3B)	Beat
QCT Automotive Revenue Growth	Q2 FY2026	greater than 35% YoY	+38% YoY	+3pts above guide	Beat
QCT IoT Revenue Growth	Q2 FY2026	low teens percentage YoY	+9% YoY	in-line with low end of low teens (9% within 10-19% range)	Beat
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses	Q2 FY2026	approximately $2.6B	$2.55B	-$0.05B below guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
QCT Automotive Revenue Run Rate (end of FY26)	FY 2026	above $6B annualized	—
Data Center Custom Silicon Shipments	FY 2026	initial shipments in December quarter (Q4 CY2025 / Q3 FY2026)	—
Revenue	Q3 FY2026	$9.2B - $10.0B	-11% to -3% YoY
Non-GAAP EPS	Q3 FY2026	$2.10 - $2.30	—

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Handsets	$6.024B	-13.0%
Automotive	$1.326B	+38.0%
IoT	$1.726B	+9.0%
QCT	$9.076B	-4.0%
QTL	$1.382B	+5.0%
Automotive Revenue Growth YoY	+38%	—
Combined Automotive & IoT Revenue Growth YoY	+20%	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
QCT EBT Margin	27%
QTL EBT Margin	72%
Operating Margin	21.8%

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026
Share Repurchases (H1 FY2026)	$5.4B
New Share Repurchase Authorization	$20B
Dividend Per Share (Q2)	$0.89

Management tone

Narrative arc: Diversification proof points (Q3 FY25) → Data centre pulled forward, Humane named (Q4) → Memory air pocket sized (Q1 FY26) → Handset bottom called, custom silicon ships in December (Q2 FY26).

Three quarters ago the data centre story was a fiscal 28 narrative with no customer; two quarters ago Humane was named and material revenue pulled to fiscal 27; last quarter the tone tightened to validation rather than expansion, with no hyperscaler named. This quarter management committed to December-quarter shipments at "a leading hyperscaler" — a concrete shipment date is a materially different commitment from "advanced negotiations." The hedged language remains ("we expect initial shipments…later this calendar year") but the disclosure has moved from timeline to delivery.

The handset narrative reversed direction inside a single quarter. Last call management explicitly declined to guide beyond Q2 and said memory constraints could extend into fiscal 27–28. This quarter the same management asserts a specific inflection: "QCT handset revenues from Chinese customers will reach a bottom in the third quarter, and return to sequential growth in the following quarter." That is a sharp tightening of visibility — based, the company implies, on licensing data showing true end-demand versus OEM destocking. The conviction is supported by the $4.9B Q3 handset guide being the explicit floor rather than a range.

Agentic AI moved from a future opportunity to an organising principle. Three quarters ago AI in smartphones was a slide; two quarters ago ByteDance's launch was framed as a milestone; last quarter Snapdragon X2 Elite was the validation point; this quarter management says agentic AI is "fundamentally changing user experiences across connected edge devices and reshaping our roadmap in every platform we develop." The framing also pushes a premium-tier upgrade cycle: "agentic smartphones will soon begin to influence the premium tier" — implicitly a stake in the ground that handset normalisation post-Q3 carries content upside, not just unit recovery.

Automotive language hardened from a record-setting business to a multi-generational compounding story: "the largest generation-to-generation content increase in Qualcomm's history." With Q3 guided to ~50% YoY acceleration off a tougher comp and exit run-rate now anchored above $6B annualized, this is the line where management's confidence is most concrete and most testable.

6G was elevated from a standards-track effort to a 60-company coalition with named 2028 first-silicon and 2029 launch dates. It does not move numbers this year but signals where Cristiano is positioning the platform conversation into Investor Day.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Agentic AI as fundamental platform shift reshaping all product categoriesData center custom silicon entering revenue phase with hyperscaler commitmentsAutomotive acceleration driven by digital cockpit and ADAS content expansionHandset cyclicality bottoming with agentic AI inflection potential in premium tier6G as strategic opportunity combining connectivity, AI, and sovereign cloud infrastructureDiversification traction across IoT, robotics, and industrial edge AI

Risks management surfaced:

Memory industry dynamics creating handset OEM channel inventory drawdown and reduced visibilityApple product revenue declining 20% share assumption with no relationship beyond fiscal 27Mid-low tier handset weakness persisting; premium tier holding but not confirmed to strengthenCompetitive intensity in data center from NVIDIA inference focus and other IP providers vertically integratingExecution risk on custom silicon and data center roadmap given limited details provided

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q2 handset revenue versus the ~$6B guide. Handsets printed $6.02B against the ~$6B guide — cleared by $24M, which is essentially a met. Management has sized the memory constraint correctly for Q2. The Q3 guide of ~$4.9B reframes the question: the trough is deeper sequentially than Q2 implied, but management now explicitly calls Q3 the bottom. Status: Resolved positively

Any commentary on when memory normalises. Management committed to a specific China handset bottom in Q3 with sequential growth returning in Q4 — a tighter timeline than the "could extend into fiscal 27–28" language used last quarter. The improvement is anchored on licensing visibility into end-demand. Status: Resolved positively

Automotive at >35% YoY — does it print? Automotive printed +38% YoY at $1.33B, clearing the >35% guide by 3 points and setting a quarterly record. Q3 guide of ~50% YoY against a harder comp is an upward step, not normalisation. The exit-FY26 run-rate above $6B annualized is the new anchor. Status: Resolved positively

Named hyperscaler customer or AI200/AI250 spec disclosure. Management disclosed "initial shipments for a custom silicon engagement at a leading hyperscaler" in the December quarter — concrete shipment timing without yet a named customer. The engagement is characterised as multi-generation and accretive at the operating-margin level. Customer identity and product-level unit economics deferred to Investor Day on June 24. Status: Continue monitoring

QCT operating margin landing inside or below the 26–28% guide. QCT EBT margin landed at 27%, mid-range. Q3 has been guided to 25–27% — management has already lowered the band by 100bps at both ends. Status: Resolved positively for Q2; the Q3 cut answers the forward question pre-emptively.

QTL trajectory and any Huawei licensing inflection. QTL printed $1.38B at the top of the $1.2–1.4B guide — better than the "second guide-range low print" risk flagged. Q3 guide of $1.15–1.35B with EBT margin stepping to 67–71% (from 72%) on weaker low-tier mix implies further softening. Huawei not addressed. Status: Resolved positively on Q2; the Q3 step-down reopens the question.

What to watch into next quarter

Does the Q3 handset trough actually print at ~$4.9B and resume sequential growth in Q4? This is the single most important falsifiable claim in the brief. A Q3 print below $4.9B reopens the question of whether the memory constraint is worsening; a confirmed sequential step-up in Q4 closes the air pocket narrative.

The named hyperscaler customer behind December-quarter custom silicon shipments. Management committed to shipment timing and operating-margin accretion without identity. Disclosure of the customer name on the Q3 call — or at Investor Day on June 24 — converts the data centre story from narrative to model line.

Automotive exit FY26 run-rate above $6B annualized. Q3 at ~50% YoY would imply ~$1.45B+ in Q3, and Q4 needs to sustain >$1.5B to hit the anchor. Any Q3 miss against the 50% YoY guide reframes the multi-generational content thesis.

QCT EBT margin holding the lowered 25–27% band with $7.9–8.5B of QCT revenue. Management has already conceded 100bps of compression. A Q3 print below 25% would indicate fixed-cost discipline is worse than the lowered band assumes and raise the question of how data centre hiring is being funded.

QTL EBT holding the 67–71% band. A print at the low end or below would confirm low-tier weakness is deepening rather than stabilising, with implications for the global handset unit assumption underlying the framework.

Investor Day positioning on data centre, 6G, robotics, and the FY29 target. Management has signalled data centre, XR, automotive, and now 6G are all understated versus current framing. A revised long-term target or a new disclosure framework at Investor Day (June 24) is the next gating event for the multi-year story.

Sources

Qualcomm Q2 FY2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432826000060/qcom032926erex991.htm
Tapebrief Q1 FY2026 brief (prior watch list, guide baselines, narrative arc)
Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 brief (data centre timeline and Humane disclosure baseline)
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief (Q3 FY2025 revenue baseline for YoY guidance math)

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