QCOM · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Qualcomm

Reported November 5, 2025

30-second summary

30-second take. Qualcomm beat its own Q4 guide on revenue ($11.27B vs. $10.3–11.1B) and non-GAAP EPS ($3.00 vs. $2.75–2.95), with QCT $9.82B clearing the high end by ~2.3% on Android premium-tier strength. The real news is data centre: Humane is now a named customer with a 200MW deployment starting 2026, and material revenue was pulled forward to fiscal 27 from the fiscal 28 timeline framed last quarter. Offsetting that, GAAP EPS came in at –$2.89 against a +$2.23–2.43 guide — a ~$5 swing that points to a large unexplained charge management has not yet walked through in the available materials.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$3.00

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$11.27B

+10.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

55.4%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

25.9%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$11.27B	+10.0%	$10.37B	+8.7%
EPS	$3.00	—	$2.77	+8.3%
Gross margin	55.4%	—	55.6%	-20bps
Operating margin	25.9%	—	26.6%	-70bps

Guidance

Qualcomm beat Q4 FY2025 guidance on both revenue and non-GAAP EPS while providing Q1 FY2026 guidance reflecting strong sequential growth momentum, though GAAP EPS miss suggests a significant one-time charge.

Guidance is issued one quarter forward. The Prior-guide column references the guide issued last quarter for the period just reported; the New-guide column is for next quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$10.3B - $11.1B	$11.27B	+$0.17B above guide high end	Beat
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS	Q4 FY2025	$2.75 - $2.95	$3.00	+$0.05 above guide high end	Beat
QCT Revenues	Q4 FY2025	$9.0B - $9.6B	$9.821B	+$0.22B above guide high end	Beat
QTL Revenues	Q4 FY2025	$1.25B - $1.45B	$1.409B	-$0.04B below guide high end	Missed
GAAP Diluted EPS	Q4 FY2025	$2.23 - $2.43	-$2.89	-$5.32 below guide low end	Missed

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$11.8B - $12.6B	—
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS	Q1 FY2026	$3.30 - $3.50	—
QCT Revenues	Q1 FY2026	$10.3B - $10.9B	—
QTL Revenues	Q1 FY2026	$1.4B - $1.6B	—
GAAP Diluted EPS	Q1 FY2026	$2.55 - $2.75	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
QCT Handsets	$6.961B	+14.0%
QCT Automotive	$1.053B	+17.0%
QCT IoT	$1.807B	+7.0%
QCT Total	$9.821B	+13.0%
QTL Licensing	$1.409B	-7.4%

Capacity & utilization

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
QCT Non-Apple Revenue Growth (FY)	18%
QCT Automotive + IoT Revenue Growth (FY)	27%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
QCT Operating Margin (Q4)	29.5%
QTL Operating Margin (Q4)	71.9%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (Q4)	33.7%
Non-GAAP EPS Growth (FY)	17.7%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Free Cash Flow (FY)	$12.82 billion
Capital Returns (FY)	$12.596 billion

Management tone

Narrative arc: Automotive proof points (Q3) → Data centre pulled forward and first customer named (Q4).

The single biggest tone shift between Q3 and Q4 is the timeline on data centre. Last quarter Cristiano framed revenue beginning "in the fiscal 28 timeframe if the advanced hyperscaler negotiation converts" — guarded, conditional, no customer. This quarter the language tightened materially: Humane is named, the 200MW deployment is dated to 2026, and material revenue is moved forward to fiscal 27. That is a two-year pull-forward on the explicit timeline within a single quarter, with a named first customer. Hyperscaler engagement details are deferred to an H1 2026 roadmap update.

The framing of the long-term opportunity also escalated. On Q3 the data centre TAM was discussed in the context of the prior analyst-day adjacencies (~$2–4B). This quarter Ben Rices (Mellius) drew management out on whether data centre sits above that band, and the answer was multi-billion in "a couple of years" — positioned explicitly above the prior smaller-adjacency framing. Management also said XR guidance is significantly understated versus the actual opportunity. Both suggest an analyst day revision is coming.

Confidence on Android premium tier hardened rather than softened. The Q3 call had the 75% Samsung baseline disclosed as new information; this quarter Akash confirmed Qualcomm hit 100% on Galaxy S25 and is modelling the 75% baseline into the December quarter with potential upside — i.e. the contractual floor is the conservative case, not the expected case. Stacy Raskin pushed on whether the Android growth is pull-forward; management explicitly rejected that and framed device-mix shift to premium plus content growth within premium as a multi-year, global trend.

Two areas remained guarded: data centre unit economics (cost-per-gigawatt, pricing vs. training clusters — all deferred to H1 2026), and Huawei licensing (no substantive update).

(Note: the structured tone-analysis input flagged the transcript as boilerplate-only; the paragraphs above are reconstructed from the Q&A inputs and the Q3 prior brief.)

Q&A highlights

Joshua Buckhalter · TD Cowan

Qualcomm's right to win in data center, specs of AI200 and AI250 SOCs, and timing of hyperscale engagement versus Humane engagement

Qualcomm is leveraging competitive power-efficient CPU for head nodes and general-purpose compute, plus a new dedicated inference architecture focused on performance per watt and token generation efficiency. Humane deployment targets 200 megawatts starting in 2026. Hyperscaler engagement details will be disclosed in H1 2026 roadmap update. Data center revenue expected to become material in fiscal 27.

200 megawatt Humane deployment target starting 2026Data center revenue to become material in fiscal 27 (pulled forward from prior fiscal 2018 expectation)AI200 and AI250 SOCs with dedicated inference architectureFocus on performance per watt and token generation efficiency

Sameek Chatterjee · JPMorgan

Price-performance expectations for inference workloads on AI200/AI250 relative to training cluster costs; revenue implications of Humane 200 megawatt deployment; guidance confidence given Android customer share concerns

Management declined to provide specific cost-per-gigawatt or revenue numbers pre-H1 2026 update. Confirmed data center revenue ramp pulled forward to fiscal 27. Reiterated strong business momentum exiting fiscal 25 carrying into fiscal 26. Noted AlphaWave acquisition closing in Q1 2026. No guidance beyond first quarter.

Data center revenue ramp moved forward to fiscal 27AlphaWave acquisition expected to close Q1 2026Strong business momentum from fiscal 25 carrying forwardNo forward guidance beyond Q1 FY26

Timothy Akuri · UBS

Reconciliation of September beat attribution between top customer versus Android premium tier; top customer baseline for December quarter; Huawei license negotiation status

September upside driven by Android premium tier, not Apple. Top customer's modem model included in 3 of 4 flagship models. December quarter assumes baseline ~75% share with Samsung, with potential for outperformance. Huawei license negotiations ongoing with no substantive updates.

Top customer (Apple) in 3 of 4 flagship modelsBaseline assumption 75% share with Samsung; achieved 100% on Galaxy S25Low teens sequential handset revenue growth expected in Q1 FY26Huawei license negotiations ongoing with no update

Stacy Raskin · Bernstein Research

Drivers of double-digit Android QCT growth ex-Apple on flat market; sustainability of content growth trajectory; China customer strength and pull-forward risk

Growth driven by two factors: (1) device mix shift toward premium tier across all regions, and (2) content growth within premium tier as more capable chips drive higher ASPs. No pull-forward dynamic; China customers launched devices with positive consumer reception. Normal purchase patterns around device launches. This is multi-year trend.

Non-Apple QCT revenue up 18% year-over-yearDevice mix shift toward premium tier is global, not just developed marketsContent growth within premium tier continuing multi-year trendNo pull-forward concerns; normal seasonality around launches

Ben Rices · Mellius Research

Data center opportunity size relative to prior $2-4 billion analyst day guidance for smaller opportunities; XR upside potential

Data center represents multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity in couple years, positioned above smaller opportunities outlined at prior analyst day. XR guidance significantly understated; seeing fast market take-off in AI smart glasses with major upside opportunity across glasses, watch, and hearables form factors.

Data center opportunity positioned as multi-billion dollar in couple yearsXR guidance significantly understated versus actual opportunityAI smart glasses experiencing fast market take-off with major upsideBroader personal AI market across multiple form factors (glasses, watch, hearables)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Data centre customer disclosure. Resolved — Humane named as first customer with a 200MW deployment target starting 2026, and material data centre revenue pulled forward to fiscal 27 from the fiscal 28 timeline framed last quarter. Hyperscaler details still deferred to H1 2026. The story now has its first concrete number. Status: Resolved positively

Q4 handset revenue vs. the implied 5% sequential step-up. QCT Handsets came in at $6.96B, +14% YoY — a clear acceleration from Q3's +7% and well ahead of the implied Q3 framing. Driven by the September flagship launch landing strongly and 100% Galaxy S25 share. Status: Resolved positively

Automotive sustainability above the $984M record. Auto delivered $1.053B, +17% YoY — cleared the $1B threshold Akash guided to, sustaining the multi-quarter compounding. Status: Resolved positively

Samsung share trajectory above the 75% baseline. Galaxy S25 came in at 100% share versus the 75% contractual baseline; December-quarter guide assumes 75% with potential upside. The baseline is functioning as a floor, not an expectation. Status: Resolved positively

OPEX discipline as data centre hiring ramps. Non-GAAP operating margin held at 33.7% in Q4 and 27.9% for the full year; management did not call out a step-function in OPEX. But with data centre revenue now pulled forward two years, the OPEX question becomes more acute next quarter, not less. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

What was the GAAP charge? GAAP EPS of –$2.89 against a +$2.23–2.43 guide is a ~$5 swing per share that needs identification — impairment, tax, litigation. Watch the 10-K filing and Q1 commentary for the line item.

AI200/AI250 unit economics at the H1 2026 roadmap update. Management deferred cost-per-gigawatt, pricing strategy, and competitive performance metrics. Without these, data centre stays a narrative; with them, it becomes a model line.

Hyperscaler announcement beyond Humane. Cristiano framed advanced negotiations last quarter; this quarter delivered Humane but no hyperscaler. A named hyperscaler before fiscal 27 is the next gating event for the data-centre thesis.

QTL trajectory and Huawei. QTL –7% YoY and a guide-range miss; Huawei licensing has now been "ongoing with no update" for multiple calls. Watch whether QTL Q1 lands in the upper half of $1.4–1.6B or continues drifting.

Q1 FY2026 GAAP vs. non-GAAP gap. The Q1 guide implies a ~$0.75 gap between non-GAAP midpoint ($3.40) and GAAP midpoint ($2.65) — a normal range. If the Q4 GAAP charge recurs, that gap widens and the GAAP narrative becomes a real overhang.

Analyst day revision on long-term targets. Management signalled both data centre and XR are understated versus current framing. A revised fiscal 29 target above the prior $22B Auto+IoT framing would be the formal acknowledgement.

Sources

Qualcomm Q4 FY2025 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000084/qcom092825erex991.htm
Qualcomm Q4 FY2025 earnings call Q&A (analyst exchanges)
Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 brief (prior-quarter watch list and guide baselines)

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