RCL · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Royal Caribbean Group

Reported July 28, 2026

30-second summary

Royal Caribbean delivered Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $4.21 on $4.83B revenue (+6.5% YoY), landing $0.28–$0.38 above its own $3.83–$3.93 Q2 guide. Management raised FY2026 EPS to $17.73–$17.87 (midpoint $17.80), a +$0.50 midpoint raise vs. the prior $17.30 that pushes the YoY growth rate from 11% back to 14%. The tension in the print: FY revenue growth was quietly trimmed from ~10% to 9% and FY net yields were narrowed lower, meaning the EPS raise is being carried by cost discipline (NCC ex-fuel guide flat at ~0.4% AR) and Q2's pricing beat rather than by any acceleration in the top-line trajectory.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$4.21

+6.6% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.83B

+6.5% YoY

+0.2% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

27.0%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$4.83B	$4.54B	+6.5%	$4.45B	+8.5%
EPS	$4.21	$4.38	-3.9%	$3.60	+16.9%
Operating margin	27.0%	29.3%	-227bps	26.1%	+90bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	Q2 FY2026	$3.83 to $3.93	$4.21	+$0.28 to $0.38 above guide	Beat
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	~10% YoY growth	$4.832B (6.5% YoY)	-3.5pts below YoY guide	Met
Net Yields	Q2 FY2026	~0.9% YoY as-reported	Up 1.9% YoY	+1.0pt above guide	Beat
NCC excluding Fuel per APCD	Q2 FY2026	4.9% to 5.4% YoY increase as-reported	Up 4.4% YoY as-reported	-0.5 to -1.0pt vs. guide midpoint	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	Q3 FY2026	$6.26 to $6.36	+14.6% to +17.1% YoY
Net Yields	Q3 FY2026	Approximately flat (as-reported and constant currency)	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	$17.10 to $17.50 (11% YoY)	$17.73 to $17.87 (14% YoY)	+$0.23 to +$0.77 at midpoints; +3pts YoY growth acceleration	Raised
Revenue Growth	FY2026	Roughly 10% YoY	9% YoY	-1.0pt YoY	Lowered
Net Yields	FY2026	2.3% to 3.3% as-reported; 1.5% to 2.5% constant currency	2.35% to 2.85% as-reported; 1.75% to 2.25% constant currency	-0.45 to -0.50pt range as-reported; -0.25 to -0.50pt constant currency	Lowered
NCC excluding Fuel per APCD	FY2026	Approximately 0.5% as-reported; Approximately flat in Constant Currency	Approximately 0.4% as-reported; Approximately flat in Constant Currency	-0.1pt as-reported	Lowered

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	YoY
Passenger ticket revenues	$3.344B	+4.5%
Onboard and other revenues	$1.488B	+11.1%

Platform metrics

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Passengers Carried	2,399,066	—	—
Load Factor	110.2%	110.3%	—
Net Yields	$288.95	$283.56	—
Net Cruise Costs ex. Fuel per APCD	$132.30	—	—
Capacity Growth (YoY)	5.0%	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	$1,830 million	$1.9 billion	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	37.9%	40.8%	—
Full Year Adjusted EPS Guidance	$17.73 to $17.87	—	—

Management tone

No transcript available for this quarter; tone analysis is limited to press-release commentary.

The press-release qualitative statements read as a return to the Q4-2025 posture that Q1-2026 briefly abandoned. Q4 was "record wave, best seven booking weeks in history"; Q1 was "geopolitical events forcing downward revision"; Q2 lands at "booking trends for 2027 are encouraging and pacing ahead of historical levels" and "the company remains booked at record prices, booking volumes are above last year's levels." The shift from defending a cut to referencing forward-year booking pacing suggests management believes the Mediterranean/West-Mexico disruption is now firmly in the rear-view.

The qualitative anchor for the FY raise is Liberty's "We expect another year of approximately double-digit growth in revenue and earnings" — notable because FY revenue guide of +9% technically now sits below double digits, so management is either signaling upside to the +9% or is willing to round up. Either reading is more forward-leaning than the tone the Q1 release carried.

The absence of a transcript this quarter means the Q4 yield acceleration flagged in the Q1 call goes unconfirmed. That's the most important unanswered question in the print.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Does Q2 net yield print above the +0.2% CC guide? Yes — net yields printed +1.9% YoY as-reported, roughly +100bps above the +0.9% AR guide. This is a material beat and supports the "turned the corner" framing Liberty defended in Q1. However, the Q3 guide of approximately flat net yields (both AR and CC) means the recovery is not linear — Q3 remains a yield trough per management's own framing. Status: Resolved positively

Is fuel guidance for FY2026 stable, or does it move again? The press release discloses FY fuel expense of $1,338M on 1,756,000 metric tons, effectively in line with the prior ~$1.3B assumption. The FY EPS raise of $0.50 without a corresponding revenue-growth acceleration is therefore explained by cost outcomes rather than fuel. Status: Resolved — stable

TUI Cruises JV trajectory. No specific TUI Cruises JV disclosure appears in the press release, though the release cites "favorable performance from joint ventures" as one of three drivers of the Q2 beat. The FY EPS raise partially absorbs whatever the JV contribution ends up being, but the Q1 TUI headwind is not explicitly re-quantified. Status: Continue monitoring

H2-2026 booking visibility. Management stated "booking trends for 2027 are encouraging and pacing ahead of historical levels" and that "the company remains booked at record prices." The Q3 guide of flat net yields and Q4 needing mid-single-digit yield to hit the FY +2.35–2.85% AR range confirms the back-half-loaded curve. The record-price/record-volume language qualitatively supports the Q4 acceleration, but the specific booked-position quantification remains transcript-dependent. Status: Resolved positively qualitatively; quantitative decomposition pending transcript

Caribbean rate decomposition. No Caribbean-specific rate disclosure appears in the press release. The onboard revenue +11.1% vs. ticket +4.5% split is the only decomposition available. Status: Continue monitoring

Adjusted EBITDA margin bps disclosure for FY2026. No FY bps target disclosed. Q2 delivered a -290bps YoY margin contraction, which makes the absence of an FY figure more meaningful — three consecutive prints without a bps disclosure. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Does Q3 net yield print above the "approximately flat" guide? Q3 is now the yield trough per management framing. A beat here (positive YoY on either basis) would validate that the H2 recovery is data-supported, not narrative. A print at or below flat is consistent with the guide but would concentrate all of the FY yield improvement into Q4, raising the bar for the year-end sprint.

Q4 implied net yield growth to hit FY +2.35–2.85% AR. With Q1 +3.6% AR, Q2 +1.9% AR, Q3 ~flat, Q4 has to deliver ~mid-single-digit yield growth on capacity +5% to land at the FY midpoint. Watch for the Q3 call to reaffirm or quantify.

FY revenue growth vs. the "approximately double-digit" verbal frame. The +9% guide sits just below double digits. Watch whether Q3 delivers upside that restores the double-digit framing or whether the qualitative statement is a directional hedge.

NCC ex-fuel Q3 guide of (1.7)% to (1.2)% AR. This is a sharp sequential improvement from the +4.4% Q2 print, reflecting the lapping of Q3-2025's comp. Watch whether Q3 actual prints inside the range — a beat would extend the "anemic cost growth" thesis into 2027 planning.

Transcript detail on TUI Cruises JV. The Q1 cut cited JV headwinds; Q2 credits JVs as a source of the beat. The Q3 call should quantify whether the swing is durable.

Adjusted EBITDA margin bps target for FY2026. Three prints without a figure while YoY margin compressed 290bps in Q2. The Q3 call should force the disclosure, or the absence itself becomes a signal.

Sources

Royal Caribbean Group Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Form 8-K), filed July 28, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488726000036/a2026q2earningsrelease.htm

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