tapebrief

ROST · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Ross Stores

Reported May 21, 2026

30-second summary

Comp store sales grew 17% — the largest in company history — driving revenue +21% to $6.01B and GAAP EPS +37% to $2.02. Management raised FY26 same-store sales guidance to 6-7% (from a 5% prior-year base) and FY26 EPS to $7.50-$7.74 (+13-17%), while explicitly acknowledging tax-refund timing aided Q1 and tough 2H comparisons lie ahead. The notable signal: rather than couch the print as a peak, Jim Conroy committed to "very solid comps, maybe not a 17" in the back half — an unusually offensive posture for off-price.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$2.02

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$6.01B

+21.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

29.6%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$0.63B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

13.4%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoY
Revenue$6.01B+21.0%
EPS$2.02
Gross margin29.6%
Operating margin13.4%
Free cash flow$0.63B

Guidance

Prior quarter data unavailable — comparison not possible.

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Comparable store sales growth17%
Total store count2,282
Ross Dress for Less locations1,917
dd's DISCOUNTS locations365

Profitability

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
EPS growth37%
Operating margin13.4%
Net income growth36%

Other KPIs

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Share repurchases (Q1)$319 million

Management tone

The first quarter under Jim Conroy's full ownership of the narrative reads as a deliberate break from Ross's historically conservative posture. Three shifts worth flagging.

From defensive inventory positioning to aggressive closeout chasing. Ross's traditional Q1 cadence has been cautious — keep inventory lean, wait for visibility. This quarter the framing inverted. Conroy: "the market is now recognizing that our growth rate is a bit outsized and we're getting a lot of first calls now." The signal is that vendor mix has shifted: Ross is now picking up cancellations from mainstream retail and other off-pricers, which structurally improves IMU and merchandise quality without raising buying costs. This is a sourcing-leverage story, not a comp story, and it has multi-year implications.

From "initiatives in flight" to "initiatives working, doing more." The merchandising expansion into better/best price points — introduced as a test in prior periods — is now being scaled with confidence. Conroy: "we just have gotten started on many of these initiatives... plenty of more opportunity for continuing very solid comps." The implicit message is that the 17% comp is not a sugar high; the structural drivers (new customer acquisition, brand expansion, store labor changes) have runway.

From cautious 2H framing to proactive raise. Off-price retailers typically guide down after a blowout quarter to manage expectations against tough laps. Conroy did the opposite, raising both Q2 and FY guidance while explicitly acknowledging the 2H math implies 2-3% comps. The "at the risk of laying up new second half guidance right now" aside is telling — he chose to commit publicly rather than reserve flexibility.

The hedging is narrow and specific: tax refund timing, fuel-driven freight pressure in 2H, and tariff refund timing. None of these are demand-side caveats, which is the relevant distinction.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Customer acquisition acceleration driving transaction growthMerchandise assortment expansion into better/best price pointsMarketing modernization and media mix optimizationEarly-stage store labor and visual merchandising transformationInventory availability and closeout sourcing strengthNortheast market penetration and store productivity outperformance

Risks management surfaced:

Elevated fuel prices pressuring freight costs in second halfTiming and amount of tariff refund reimbursements remain uncertainMacro consumer pressures and potential softness requiring value positioningDifficult year-over-year comparisons in second half (implicit 2-3% comp)Potential variation in oil price assumptions embedded in guidance

Q&A highlights

Simeon Siegel · Guggenheim

What percentage of transaction growth comes from new customer acquisition versus increased frequency from existing customers? How is CapEx timing being managed given Q1 was similar to prior year but full year guidance is higher? What is the long-term EBIT margin opportunity?

New customers were the primary driver of transaction growth, though components weren't parsed out precisely. CapEx of $1 billion for 2026 versus $819 million last year, with relatively flat quarterly distribution. Long-term model unchanged: double-digit EPS growth driven by 5% unit growth, 60-70% productivity (3-4% EPS), 3-4% long-term gains, and 2-3% from share repurchase.

New customers primary driver of transaction comps$1 billion CapEx guidance for 2026 vs $819 million in 20255% unit growth target60-70% productivity target

Christina Katai · Deutsche Bank

What drove standout cosmetics category performance—branded availability, consumer trade-up to prestige, or space allocation? How durable is this growth? How is priority access to deals showing up in buying costs, IMU, speed to floor, and conversion rates?

Cosmetics growth driven by new high-performing brands (including Korean Beauty trend), exceptional merchandising team execution, and sales productivity gains without material space allocation changes. Priority deal access results from market recognition of Ross transformation, strong vendor relationships, ability to absorb closeouts, and reputation as low-friction partner. Recent examples include picking up cancellations from mainstream retail and other off-pricers.

Korean Beauty Products identified as key trendNew brands driving category salesSales productivity per square foot increasedNo meaningful space allocation changes

Anisha Sherman · Bernstein

Has there been a cultural shift in decision-making driving the new initiatives? Can you provide color on customer count growth trends in Q3 and Q4, and whether the run rate is increasing for the back half outlook?

Cultural shift toward entrepreneurship and offense-oriented growth versus historical risk aversion, while maintaining prudence. Shift toward empowerment and quicker decisions. Double-digit customer growth achieved in recent quarters with sequential improvement in both Q3 and Q4 on constant basis. Comps grew lower than double-digits despite double-digit customer growth.

Double-digit customer growth achievedSequential improvement in customer count growth Q3 and Q4Comp growth lower than double-digit customer growthCultural shift from defense to offense orientation

Marnie Shapiro · Retail Tracker

What is the update on store renovation progress, how are refreshed stores performing, and what is the status of the buyback program?

Completed refresh of approximately 50% of chain with new perimeter signing, wayfinding, and cosmetic repairs. Refreshed stores showed sales improvement and positive customer survey results. Program paused to assess impact, evaluate new store prototypes, and determine future refresh strategy before potential larger capital outlay. Buyback remains on track at $1.275 billion for 2026, unchanged.

~50% of chain refreshed in 2025Refresh improvements include new signing and cosmetic repairsRefreshed stores showed sales improvementCustomer survey scores improved on shopping experience

Dylan Cardin · William Blair

Is the new customer growth structurally expanding the overall market for Ross, or simply recapturing share within existing markets? Are there meaningful changes in customer segments going forward?

Strategy explicitly includes expanding into new customer segments through concentric circles around core customer bullseye. Early evidence shows ability to introduce Ross brand to different consumer shopper pockets. Still very early in evolution, but early reads are positive on cross-segment penetration beyond traditional customer base.

Bullseye core customer maintained as focusConcentric circle expansion strategy for new segmentsSuccessfully introducing Ross to new consumer pocketsEarly stage of multi-segment expansion evolution

What to watch into next quarter

Whether comp growth holds above the 6-7% Q2 guide — a beat sustains the "structural, not seasonal" narrative; an in-line or miss revives the tax-refund-pull-forward concern.

Customer count growth disclosure — management cited double-digit growth in Q1 but did not split new vs. existing. A continued split (or first-time quantification) on the Q2 call would either validate or temper the customer acquisition story.

Cosmetics category durability — whether the Korean Beauty and new-brand-driven momentum extends into Q2 or proves to be a one-quarter trend tied to specific launches.

Operating margin trajectory — Q2 guide of 12.8-13.0% is +130-150bps YoY but below Q1's 13.4%. Watch whether mix and freight pressure compress margins more than guided as fuel costs flow through.

Store refresh program restart — management paused after refreshing ~50% of the chain to evaluate new prototypes. A restart announcement with a defined capital envelope would mark a step-up in FY27 CapEx and a tangible commitment to the modernization thesis.

Northeast expansion pace — 12 NY-area stores at end of FY25, 2 added in Q1. Watch for an accelerated build cadence in the next two quarters to validate the five-year densification plan.

Sources

  1. Ross Stores Q1 FY2026 press release (Exhibit 99.1), filed with SEC on 2026-05-21 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745732/000074573226000025/q126exhibit991.htm
  2. Ross Stores Q1 FY2026 earnings conference call transcript

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