SBAC · Q4 2025 Earnings

Q: Long-term net organic growth expectations for domestic market post-consolidation; split between co-locations and amendments; timeline for new spectrum deployment impact (upper C-band).

Long-term domestic organic growth expected in 4-5% range, comprising 3% escalators, ~1% long-term churn, and 2-3% organic lease-up. Heavy contribution from co-locations (dollar-weighted more than amendments). Upper C-band spectrum unlikely to impact until 2029-2030. Current spectrum in carrier hands (AWS, PCS, C-band, acquired DISH spectrum) will drive nearer-term activity with MIMO deployments and densification.

Q: Is 2026 the bottom for organic leasing; what consolidation items remain to be resolved domestically and internationally.

Management believes 2026 is likely the bottom for organic leasing. Lower activity than long-term range is due to cyclicality with T-Mobile leasing slowdown offset by Verizon pickup. AT&T MLA was front-end loaded, creating revenue dip but with more even underlying activity; agreement expires in couple of years and should normalize. Remaining consolidation: less than $20M Sprint left, U.S. Cellular churn discussed, miscellaneous items. Internationally: OI churn pulled forward into 2026 (no more after), some Claro/Nextel overlaps, but most large items resolved.

Cautious

SBA Communications

Reported February 26, 2026

30-second summary

SBA closed Q4 FY2025 with a solid in-line print ($719.6M revenue, $3.19 AFFO/share, $3.47 diluted EPS) and FY2025 total revenue of $2,815.1M landing within the $2,808–$2,828M guide. The 2026 outlook is the real signal: total revenue guided to $2,815–$2,860M (essentially flat to +1.6% YoY) with EchoStar revenue fully removed, AFFO/share guided to $11.84–$12.29 — a step down from the prior FY2025 AFFO/share guide range of $12.76–$12.98 — and net cash interest expense guided to $492–$500M. Management explicitly framed 2026 as the bottom for organic leasing, with EchoStar, OI, and U.S. Cellular consolidation churn concentrated in the year — a contained-trough narrative that depends on the Verizon MLA, services backlog, and Brazil densification all delivering as advertised.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$3.19

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.72B

+3.7% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

41.5%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.72B	+3.7%	$0.73B	-1.7%
EPS	$3.19	—	$3.30	-3.3%
Operating margin	41.5%	—	51.1%	-960bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Total revenues	FY2025	$2,808.0M to $2,828.0M	$2,815.1M	within guidance range; +$7.1M above low end	Beat
Site leasing revenue	FY2025	$2,568.0M to $2,578.0M	$2,626.3M	+$48.3M–$58.3M above guidance range	Beat
Site development revenue	FY2025	$240.0M to $250.0M	$188.7M	-$51.3M–$61.3M below guidance range	Missed
Tower Cash Flow	FY2025	$2,061.0M to $2,071.0M	$2,087.5M	+$16.5M–$26.5M above guidance range	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$1,909.0M to $1,919.0M	$1,919.4M	+$0.4M–$10.4M above guidance range (at high end)	Beat
AFFO	FY2025	$1,373.0M to $1,397.0M	$1,284.0M	-$89.0M–$113.0M below guidance range	Missed
AFFO per share	FY2025	$12.76 to $12.98	$9.80	-$2.96–$3.18 per share below guidance range	Missed

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Site leasing revenue	FY2026	$2,625.0M to $2,650.0M	-0.1% to +3.1% YoY
Site development revenue	FY2026	$190.0M to $210.0M	+0.7% to +11.3% YoY
Total revenues	FY2026	$2,815.0M to $2,860.0M	-0.0% to +1.6% YoY
Tower Cash Flow	FY2026	—	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Net cash interest expense	FY2025	$434.0M to $440.0M	$496.0M	+$56.0M above prior high-end guidance	Raised

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue	$0.465B	-1.6%
International Site Leasing Revenue	$0.202B	+15.6%
Site Development Revenue	$0.053B	+12.7%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
AFFO per share	$3.19
Tower Cash Flow	$532.2M
Tower Cash Flow Margin	80.2%
Adjusted EBITDA	$486.0M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	67.8%
Domestic Site Leasing Operating Profit Margin	84.7%
International Site Leasing Operating Profit Margin	70.5%
Total communication sites owned/operated	46,328 sites

Management tone

Q2 FY2025 bullishness → Q3 FY2025 constructive with leverage reset → Q4 FY2025 cautious-with-a-trough thesis

The bookings-momentum narrative quietly downshifted from "sustained and building" to "2026 is the bottom for organic leasing." Management conceded — through the Citi exchange — that 2026 is "definitely right at the bottom" driven by T-Mobile leasing slowdown offset by Verizon pickup. The shift signals management now sees a calendar-bound trough rather than a continuously building cycle, with recovery dependent on Verizon's MLA ramp and post-2026 spectrum activity.

Consolidation churn moved from "ongoing headwind" to "approaching completion with visibility to decline." "We are getting closer to the end of consolidation churn in the U.S. … spring churn in 2027 and beyond to be less than the $20 million previously provided." This is the most concrete forward de-risking on the print — a specific lower number for 2027+ Sprint churn — and reframes the multi-year AFFO/share bridge favorably.

6G shifted from distant optionality to near-term capex driver. Q4 introduced explicit 6G language: "Today, we are starting to see the early signs of preparation for 6G … more compute at the tower site with higher capacity radios and denser and more intelligent antenna configurations." Management is now positioning SBA as essential AI-network infrastructure, not passive real estate — a narrative expansion that justifies premium capital allocation but is unfalsifiable in the near term.

Brazil densification framed as geometric arbitrage. "Brazil has an estimated four sites for 10,000 people compared with roughly 16 sites for 10,000 people in the U.S. We see that gap providing a meaningful opportunity for additional co-locations." This is the cleanest growth narrative on the call — a 4x site-density gap in the highest-ROIC geography — and shifts international from churn-defensive to densification-offensive framing.

Services revenue posture moved from volatile to backlogged. Management framed the $190–$210M FY2026 services guide as supported by "services backlogs … supportive of continuous care and network activity in 2026." The 2026 services range steps down from FY2025's $244.5M actual, consistent with normalization off a strong 2025 services year.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

End of U.S. consolidation churn narrative clearing path to growth accelerationFixed wireless access driving sustained colocation demand and network densification6G physical infrastructure requirements (compute, denser antennas, higher capacity) as near-term tower monetization vectorInternational densification arbitrage (Brazil 4 vs U.S. 16 sites per 10k people) as structural opportunityInvestment-grade balance sheet enabling concurrent capital deployment, dividends, and buybacksSpectrum auctions (upper C-band 2027, Brazil 450/700 MHz) as future demand catalysts

Risks management surfaced:

Equistar bad debt expense higher than forecasted in Q4Continued pursuit of legal recovery from Equistar for lost recurring revenueTiming uncertainty on Brazil spectrum auctions (estimated 2027, uncertain)International churn from consolidation, bankruptcy restructuring, and wireless operator network optimizationsDependence on market conditions for investment-grade inaugural bond issuance in 2026

Q&A highlights

Richard · J.P. Morgan

Domestic co-location revenue growth expectations for the year and carrier activity; drivers of revenue growth in Brazil (5G, spectrum, densification vs. build-out).

Management expects $35M of incremental revenue from new leases and amendments in the U.S., with activity weighted slightly heavier early in the year but steady throughout. Growth will be a mix of densification and coverage expansion. In Brazil, most growth will come from organic lease-up driven by new spectrum auctions and network densification; the company is not building many new sites. Brazil has 4x fewer sites per person than the U.S., creating significant expansion opportunity.

$35 million incremental revenue from new U.S. leases and amendments expected for full yearBrazil has 4x fewer sites per person compared to U.S.Growth mix includes densification and coverage expansionMost Brazil growth from organic lease-up, not new builds

Batya Levy · UPS

Visibility on domestic activity range and whether low-end guidance suggests slowdown; impact of Verizon MLA on revenue given Verizon's lower CapEx guidance.

Management has good visibility but provides a range because early-year outcomes are uncertain. Guidance is $2M below last year, but excluding $2M DISH lease-up contribution from prior year, it's essentially flat. Mix among carriers differs, with more expected from Verizon due to the MLA signed late last year. Verizon's minimum commitments and grown backlogs provide confidence in increased contribution despite their CapEx controls.

Domestic guidance ~$2M lower than prior year (flat excluding DISH)Verizon MLA signed late last year with defined minimum commitmentsVerizon backlogs have grown significantly since MLA signingDifferent revenue mix expected among big three carriers

Rick Prentice · Raymond James

DISH contract termination and lawsuit details; U.S. Cellular/T-Mobile merger churn impact; directed device satellite threat to terrestrial towers.

Management filed lawsuit and terminated/accelerated rents due to DISH's default on payment obligations. Relative exposure is less material than for peers. U.S. Cellular revenue exposure is $20M total; $1-2M of churn estimated for 2026 from T-Mobile/USM merger, with remainder spread evenly over ~5 years. Satellite is viewed as complementary solution for remote areas, not a material threat to core tower business given physical/financial limitations and future 6G requirements.

DISH defaulted; lawsuit filed and contract terminated with rent accelerationU.S. Cellular total revenue exposure: $20 millionT-Mobile/U.S. Cellular merger churn: $1-2M in 2026, remainder <$20M spread over ~5 yearsSatellite viewed as complementary, primarily for hard-to-reach areas

Eric Luchow · Wells Fargo

Long-term net organic growth expectations for domestic market post-consolidation; split between co-locations and amendments; timeline for new spectrum deployment impact (upper C-band).

Long-term domestic organic growth expected in 4-5% range, comprising 3% escalators, ~1% long-term churn, and 2-3% organic lease-up. Heavy contribution from co-locations (dollar-weighted more than amendments). Upper C-band spectrum unlikely to impact until 2029-2030. Current spectrum in carrier hands (AWS, PCS, C-band, acquired DISH spectrum) will drive nearer-term activity with MIMO deployments and densification.

Long-term organic growth: 4-5% range (3% escalators, 1% churn, 2-3% lease-up)Heavy dollar contribution from co-locations vs. amendmentsUpper C-band impact expected 2029-2030 timeframeSpectrum drivers: AWS/PCS MIMO upgrades, T-Mobile C-band, AT&T DISH spectrum

Michael Rollins · Citi

Is 2026 the bottom for organic leasing; what consolidation items remain to be resolved domestically and internationally.

Management believes 2026 is likely the bottom for organic leasing. Lower activity than long-term range is due to cyclicality with T-Mobile leasing slowdown offset by Verizon pickup. AT&T MLA was front-end loaded, creating revenue dip but with more even underlying activity; agreement expires in couple of years and should normalize. Remaining consolidation: less than $20M Sprint left, U.S. Cellular churn discussed, miscellaneous items. Internationally: OI churn pulled forward into 2026 (no more after), some Claro/Nextel overlaps, but most large items resolved.

2026 likely the bottom for organic leasingCyclicality driven by T-Mobile slowdown offset by Verizon pickupAT&T MLA expires in couple of years; agreement was front-end loadedSprint churn: <$20M remaining over couple of years

Answers to last quarter's watch list

2026 outlook — Total revenue guided to $2,815–$2,860M (essentially flat YoY), Verizon MLA contribution embedded as offset to T-Mobile slowdown and EchoStar exit, U.S. Cellular churn quantified at $1–2M in 2026 with $20M total exposure spread ~5 years, DISH/EchoStar revenue fully removed from outlook with lawsuit filed for recovery, and Sprint churn in 2027+ revised to "less than the $20M previously provided." Management explicitly called 2026 the bottom for organic leasing. Status: Resolved negatively — the 2026 print is materially weaker than the Q3 bullish framing implied, though management offered a credible trough narrative.

AFFO/share midpoint trajectory — FY2026 AFFO/share guided to $11.84–$12.29 (midpoint $12.07), below the prior FY2025 guide range of $12.76–$12.98. Net cash interest expense for FY2026 guided to $492–$500M, above the prior FY2025 net cash interest guide of $434–$440M — refi drag is the most visible AFFO/share headwind into 2026. Status: Resolved negatively — the AFFO/share bias reversed from "extending upward" to "stepping down on EchoStar exit and refi drag."

Domestic site leasing revenue conversion — Q4 FY2025 domestic site leasing came in at -1.6% YoY. FY2026 domestic guide implies essentially flat ex-EchoStar. Management quantified $35M of incremental revenue from new U.S. leases and amendments for 2026. Status: Resolved negatively — the bookings-to-revenue conversion has not materialized in the reported domestic line.

Investment-grade transition execution — Management cited intent for "investment-grade inaugural bond issuance in 2026 … subject to market conditions" but no inaugural unsecured IG issuance has yet been priced. Status: Continue monitoring — the path is preserved but execution slipped into 2026.

International churn quantification — Management stated OI churn was "pulled forward into 2026 (no more after this year)," with "miscellaneous" remaining international items characterized as non-material. International Q4 leasing growth held at +15.6% YoY. Status: Resolved positively — international churn is now date-bounded.

Discretionary capex utilization — FY2026 discretionary capex guided to $430–$450M, well below the prior FY2025 guide range of $1,290–$1,300M (which had included the Millicom close). Status: Continue monitoring — normalized post-Millicom run-rate now visible.

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY2026 domestic site leasing print — whether the -1.6% Q4 YoY was the trough or whether the negative trajectory deepens. Management framed 2026 as the bottom; the Q1 print is the first credibility test.

EchoStar recovery progress — SBA filed lawsuit and accelerated rents. Watch for disclosure of any recovery (cash or settlement) and bad-debt provisions, particularly given the explicit reference to higher-than-forecasted Q4 EchoStar bad debt expense.

Inaugural IG unsecured issuance pricing — the spread to the existing debt stack determines normalized AFFO/share growth recovery. Watch for issuance terms and any guide refresh on FY2026 net cash interest expense (currently $492–$500M).

Services revenue trajectory — FY2026 services guide of $190–$210M steps down from FY2025's $244.5M; watch Q1 backlog conversion to validate the "continuous care and network activity" framing.

Verizon MLA dollar contribution disclosure — management cited "grown significantly" backlogs since MLA signing but has not quantified. Any dollar disclosure of activity ramping under minimum commitments would de-risk the 2026 trough narrative.

Brazil organic lease-up cadence — with new build minimized and growth dependent on densification on existing sites, watch international leasing growth (currently +15.6% YoY) to sustain double digits ex-Millicom-mix effects as that acquisition fully laps.

Sources

SBA Communications Q4 FY2025 Press Release (8-K Ex. 99.1), filed February 26, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034054/000119312526076767/d106126dex991.htm

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