SBUX · Q3 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Starbucks

Reported July 29, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Revenue came in at $9.3B (+1.9% beat vs $9.12B consensus) with global comps +7.9% and U.S. comps +7.9% — both above Q2's already-strong +6.2% and blowing past the FY 5%+ floor for a third straight quarter. Non-GAAP EPS $0.85 beat $0.65 consensus by 30.8%, and management raised FY2026 non-GAAP EPS to $2.55–$2.65 (from $2.25–$2.45), lifting the midpoint by $0.25 (+10.6%). The China JV deconsolidation is now flowing through the print — International revenue fell 34.2% YoY — and reported revenue declined 1.4% YoY as expected under the new structure. The bull thesis Niccol has been building for four quarters now has a full quarter of post-JV data behind it, and the operating margin at 14.4% non-GAAP is the strongest quarter of his tenure.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2026

$0.85

Revenue

Q3 FY2026

$9.30B

-1.4% YoY

+1.9% vs est.

Operating margin

Q3 FY2026

10.5%

Key financials

Q3 FY2026

Metric	Q3 FY2026	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$9.30B	$9.46B	-1.6%	$9.53B	-2.4%
EPS	$0.85	$0.50	+70.0%	$0.50	+70.0%
Operating margin	10.5%	9.9%	+60bps	8.7%	+180bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP EPS	Q3 FY2026	No specific Q3 guide provided	$0.85	Significant beat vs. consensus of $0.65 (+30.8%)	Beat
Revenue	Q3 FY2026	No specific Q3 guide provided	$9.3B	Beat consensus of $9.12B (+1.9%); however YoY declined -1.4%	Beat
Global Comparable Store Sales Growth	Q3 FY2026	5.0% or greater (for FY2026)	7.9%	+2.9pts above prior full-year guide minimum	Beat
U.S. Comparable Store Sales Growth	Q3 FY2026	5.0% or greater (for FY2026)	7.9%	+2.9pts above prior full-year guide minimum	Beat
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	Q3 FY2026	Slightly improve year over year (for FY2026)	14.4%	Strong Q3 realization; well-positioned for full-year FY2026 > 11.0% guidance	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
U.S. Comparable Store Sales Growth	Q4 FY2026	—	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2026	$2.25 – $2.45	$2.55 – $2.65	+$0.10 to +$0.20 at midpoint (midpoint raised from $2.35 to $2.60, +$0.25 or +10.6%)	Raised
Consolidated Net Revenues	FY2026	Roughly flat year over year	Flat to slight growth year over year	Narrowed from 'roughly flat' to 'flat to slight growth'; reflects China JV transition impact on reported revenues	Lowered
U.S. Comparable Store Sales Growth	FY2026	5.0% or greater	Slightly greater than 6.0%	+1.0+ pts above prior minimum	Raised
Global Comparable Store Sales Growth	FY2026	5.0% or greater	Nearing 6.0%	+~1.0pt qualitative uplift	Raised
Non-GAAP Consolidated Operating Margin	FY2026	Slightly improve year over year	Greater than 11.0%	Upgraded to specific floor of >11.0% from qualitative 'slightly improve'	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Net New Coffeehouses Globally (600 to 650)

Segment performance

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026	Q3 FY2025	YoY
North America	$7.395B	$6.927B	+6.8%
International	$1.323B	$2.011B	-34.2%
Channel Development	$0.588B	$0.484B	+21.5%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Global Comparable Store Sales Growth	7.9%	—	—
Comparable Transaction Growth	4.2%	—	—
Average Ticket Growth	3.5%	—	—
North America Comparable Store Sales	8.1%	-2%	—
U.S. Comparable Store Sales	7.9%	-2%	—
International Comparable Store Sales	5.7%	—	—
Total Store Count	41,304	41,097	—

Profitability

Q3 FY2026

Segment	Q3 FY2026	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	14.4%	10.1%	—

Management tone

Transcript not available for this reporting period — tone analysis is limited to what the press release and prior-quarter transcripts allow us to triangulate.

Q4 FY2025 "the plan is working" → Q1 FY2026 "here is the proof" → Q2 FY2026 "quarter after quarter" → Q3 FY2026 China restructuring landed, FY guide raised twice on the same call, operating margin at Niccol-tenure high.

Three quarters ago Niccol was defending a plan with barely-positive comps. This quarter the press release opens with: "Our Back to Starbucks plan was built on the belief that an extraordinary cup of coffee, human connection and customer experience win the day, every day." The tense shift matters — "was built on the belief" positions the plan as complete and validated, not still in flight. The framing has moved from "we are working the plan" (Q4 FY2025) to describing the plan's founding premise as vindicated retrospectively.

The FY EPS midpoint has now moved $0.325 in two quarters ($2.275 → $2.60), and the operating margin guide has shifted from qualitative "slightly improve" to a concrete ">11.0%" floor. Management is no longer preserving optionality — they are anchoring to specific numbers, which historically Starbucks does only when internal visibility is high. Combined with a Q4 U.S. comp guide of "6.5% or greater" (versus the +7.9% Q3 print, meaning management is signaling either modest deceleration or, more likely, room to beat), the disclosure posture has hardened from Q1's wide $2.15–$2.40 range to Q3's tight $2.55–$2.65.

The hedging language present in prior quarters — "market dynamics can change," "path forward not linear" — has been narrowed to one press-release phrase: "we are focused on what we can control amid a dynamic operating environment." This is boilerplate rather than framing. The absence of specific hedges on coffee, tariffs, or margin trajectory — all of which dominated Q1 and Q2 communications — suggests management now views those risks as either resolved or immaterial to the FY guide.

The China narrative has closed. Q3 FY2025 was "capital is not the constraint"; Q1 FY2026 was "60/40 structure with Boyu"; Q2 FY2026 was "JV closed, less than 20% of what we would have reported"; Q3 FY2026 is the first quarter where the deconsolidation is simply in the numbers with no framing needed. International revenue -34.2% would have been a crisis narrative under prior management; here it is presented as an accounting event, and the +5.7% international comp is what management is asking investors to track.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Does North America comp hold above +5% in Q3, or does Q2's +7.1% prove to be a Green Apron rollout pull-forward? NA comps came in at +8.1% — 100bps above Q2 and 310bps above the FY floor. Global transactions accelerated from +3.8% to +4.2% and ticket accelerated from +2.3% to +3.5%. The pull-forward thesis is decisively refuted; both traffic and pricing power are still compounding into Q3. Status: Resolved positively

Does H2 non-GAAP operating margin sustain expansion as Green Apron labor continues to flow and the $2B cost program ramps? Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 14.4%, up ~500bps sequentially from Q2's 9.4% and comfortably above the newly-established FY ">11.0%" floor. The FY guide raise from qualitative "slightly improve" to a specific ">11.0%" floor confirms structural leverage rather than one-time helpers. Status: Resolved positively

First consolidation-to-equity-method P&L cut from the closed Boyu China JV. The deconsolidation is now visible in the print — International revenue -34.2% YoY reflects the JV structure change, while International comparable store sales at +5.7% show the underlying demand momentum. The press release does not disclose the transaction gain magnitude or a quantified equity-method income contribution in the excerpt available. Status: Resolved positively (mechanical transition landed as guided; specific gain/equity-income figures continue to monitor)

Coffee and tariff cost relief evidence in Q3 gross margin. Q3 non-GAAP operating margin at 14.4% and the FY EPS raise to $2.55–$2.65 (+$0.325 midpoint over two quarters) are consistent with the cost relief management staked the H2 EPS swing on. Gross margin was not disclosed separately in the extraction. Status: Resolved positively

Channel Development margin and product mix disclosure. Channel Development grew +21.5% YoY — the fifth straight quarter above 15% — and again received no margin or product mix disclosure. The gap is now structural: management is choosing not to disclose. Status: Not resolved

Green Apron rollout pacing: does the 300 → 1,000+ → 8,000+ store ramp hit the year-end milestone? No specific store-count update was disclosed in the press-release-only source available for this quarter. The +8.1% NA comp implies system-wide execution is broad enough to lift the whole fleet, not just the pilot cohort — but the explicit rollout number was not called out on the print. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Does Q4 U.S. comp deliver above the "6.5% or greater" guide, and does the FY U.S. print land above +6.0%? The Q4 U.S. guide of 6.5%+ is meaningfully below the Q3 print of +7.9%, giving management significant room to beat. Anything below +6.5% U.S. comp in Q4 would be the first miss on Niccol's on-record forward commentary in four quarters and would call into question whether Q3's +8.1% NA comp was a peak.

Does non-GAAP operating margin hold above 11.0% in Q4 to validate the FY floor? Q3 at 14.4% is well above the new FY floor, but Q4 will absorb the full run-rate of Green Apron labor with less seasonal mix benefit. Watch whether Q4 non-GAAP margin holds above the 11% floor comfortably (validating structural leverage) or compresses toward the floor (suggesting Q3 had seasonal helpers).

Full-year FY2026 EPS print vs the raised $2.55–$2.65 range. With Q1 $0.56 + Q2 $0.50 + Q3 $0.85 = $1.91 booked through nine months, Q4 needs $0.64–$0.74 to hit the range. The Q4 requirement is well below the Q3 run-rate, meaning the guide has meaningful cushion — a Q4 EPS above $0.75 would establish 2027 baseline expectations meaningfully higher than the current sell-side consensus construct.

First quantified equity-method income contribution from the 40% China stake. The press release confirms the JV structure is embedded in guidance for H2 FY2026 but does not disclose the equity-method income line separately in the excerpt. Watch the Q4 release for the first quarter of equity-method reporting and any commentary on China comp trajectory under the JV structure.

Channel Development segment margin or product mix disclosure. Five consecutive quarters of >15% growth with zero margin or mix commentary is now a disclosure gap that will start attracting analyst pressure. Watch whether the Q4 call or the investor day framework forces any segment color.

Initial FY2027 framework at the Q4 call or subsequent investor day. With FY2026 tracking toward the top of the raised range and operating margin now anchored to a ">11.0%" floor, the market will be modeling FY2027 EPS in the $2.90–$3.20 range. Watch whether management provides a numerical FY2027 framework alongside Q4 (Starbucks' historical cadence) or defers to a spring investor day.

Sources

Starbucks Q3 FY2026 press release / 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed July 29, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000129/sbux-06282026xearningsrele.htm
Starbucks Q2 FY2026 press release / 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed April 28, 2026 (for prior-period comparison)
Starbucks Q1 FY2026 press release / 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed January 28, 2026 (for prior-period comparison)

Get the next brief, free.

We publish analyst-grade earnings briefs the same day or morning after every call — headline numbers, segment KPIs, Q&A highlights, and tone analysis. Free during beta.

This is not investment advice.