SJM · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

J.M. Smucker Company (The)

Reported June 9, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 revenue grew 6% to $2.27B with adjusted EPS of $2.77 (beating consensus by 4.9%), and adjusted gross margin came in at 36.8% — falling just short of the implied 37%+ bar needed to hit the FY26 35.0% point estimate, which landed at 34.9% (essentially in line with the guide). The story is the FY27 setup: management guided revenue to decline 3–4%, lifted gross margin guidance to ~38.0% (from the FY26 ~35.0% point), and set adjusted EPS at $9.75–$10.25 (+7–12% YoY) — a clean concession that next year's earnings growth comes from pricing, mix, and productivity, not volume.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$2.77

+4.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$2.27B

+6.0% YoY

+0.4% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

38.0%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2026

$0.48B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

19.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$2.27B	$2.14B	+5.8%	$2.34B	-3.1%
EPS	$2.77	$2.31	+19.9%	$2.38	+16.4%
Gross margin	38.0%	38.4%	-40bps	35.4%	+260bps
Operating margin	19.6%	-27.9%	+4750bps	-23.4%	+4300bps
Free cash flow	$0.48B	$0.30B	+61.9%	$0.49B	-0.6%

Guidance

Company raised FY2027 EPS guidance to $9.75-$10.25 (+7-12% YoY) and substantially increased gross margin guidance to ~38% despite guiding to a 3-4% revenue decline, signaling aggressive pricing and productivity actions to offset volume softness.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	FY2027	$9.75 to $10.25	+7% to +12%
Net Sales Change YoY	FY2027	-4.0% to -3.0%	—
Free Cash Flow	FY2027	$1.0 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin	FY2027	approximately 35.0%	approximately 38.0%	+300 bps	Raised
Adjusted Effective Income Tax Rate	FY2027	24.0%	24.3%	+30 bps	Raised

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Retail Coffee	$0.831B	$0.739B	+12.4%
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads	$0.454B	$0.45B	+0.9%
U.S. Retail Pet Foods	$0.402B	$0.396B	+1.5%
Sweet Baked Snacks	$0.237B	$0.251B	-5.6%
Away From Home	$0.228B	—	+15.0%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Net Price Realization - Coffee	+21 percentage points	+10 percentage points	—
Volume/Mix Impact - Overall	-4 percentage points	—	—

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
U.S. Retail Coffee Segment Profit Margin	25.8%	—	—
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads Segment Profit Margin	27.5%	—	—
U.S. Retail Pet Foods Segment Profit Margin	31.3%	—	—
Away From Home Segment Profit Margin	24.2%	—	—
Adjusted Operating Margin	21.3%	19.7%	—
Operating Cash Flow	$579.2M	—	—

Management tone

No transcript was available; tone analysis is limited to press-release language and guidance composition.

The most important tonal signal is the FY27 guide itself. After three consecutive quarters of reaffirming a $9.00 EPS midpoint while top-line and gross margin slid, management is now guiding up on EPS (+7–12%) by guiding down on revenue (-3–4%) — a deliberate decoupling of the two lines. The press release framing of "focused organic volume growth and improve profitability" combined with "entering fiscal year 2027 with meaningful momentum" while simultaneously calling for a revenue decline is the company's clearest admission yet that the FY26 algorithm (growth + margin + FCF together) has been retired in favor of a margin-first posture.

The gross margin guide leap from FY26's effectively-met 35.0% point to FY27's 38.0% is the cleanest read on where confidence has shifted. With the Q4 adjusted print at 36.8%, management is anchoring FY27 ~120bps above that run-rate — meaning either (a) Q4 understated the structural margin and further expansion is in train, or (b) the guide is at risk from the first sub-38 quarter. The absence of a Q1 FY27 guide is notable: through FY26 management gave both quarterly and FY guides, but this release issued FY only.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 adjusted gross margin vs. the implied 37%+ requirement. Q4 printed 36.8%, falling just short of the 37% bar. The FY landed at 34.9% — essentially in line with the 35.0% point estimate management reaffirmed through Q3. Status: Resolved on FY in line with guide; Q4 fell narrowly short of the implied bar.

Sweet Baked Snacks revised normalized margin target. No specific normalized margin target was disclosed in the release. The Q4 segment margin of 12.2% sits well below the original 20% acquisition algorithm, and no forward target was provided. The deferral continues.

Not resolved

Emporia fire impact quantification. The press release did not provide an explicit dollar figure for the Emporia fire impact or insurance recovery commentary. With FY26 net sales growth landing at +4% (in line with the post-fire guide range of 3.5–4.0%), the fire's drag appears to have been absorbed, but the discrete number was not disclosed.

Continue monitoring

Pet Foods continuing recovery. Q4 printed +2%, completing the -8% → -7% → -1% → +2% sequence and clearing the "flat or above" bar. Segment margin of 31.3% is the highest in the company. The humanization/premiumization thesis held.

Resolved positively

Hostess management departures. No commentary in the press release on Hostess team changes. Without transcript or Q&A, the deflection from Q3 was neither confirmed nor refuted.

Continue monitoring

Buyback timing under the 3.0x leverage gate. The release did not provide an explicit leverage trajectory or any update on buyback eligibility. FY27 FCF guidance of $1.0B suggests continued debt paydown priority, but the gate wasn't quantified.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY27 adjusted gross margin vs. the ~38.0% FY27 point. With Q4 FY26 adjusted gross margin at 36.8%, the FY27 guide requires Q1 to begin closing a 120bps gap. A Q1 print below 37% would crack the FY guide within one quarter.

Coffee segment profit margin sustainability. Q4 printed 25.8% with +21pp net pricing offsetting -8pp volume/mix. Watch whether Q1 FY27 holds above 24% as the pricing wave laps and tariff costs roll off.

Q1 FY27 net sales delivery against the implied -3 to -4% trajectory. Against a $2.11B Q1 FY26 base, the FY27 guide implies Q1 FY27 revenue in the $2.02–$2.05B range. A print below $2.00B would suggest volume erosion is sharper than guided.

Sweet Baked Snacks normalized margin target. Deferred at Q3, undisclosed at Q4 despite a Q4 segment margin of 12.2%. Watch whether the Q1 FY27 release finally provides a number — and whether it's anchored below the original 20% Hostess acquisition algorithm.

FCF gap vs. earnings growth. FY27 EPS guided +7–12% but FCF guided down ~13% to $1.0B. Watch H1 working capital and capex run-rate for the source of the disconnect.

Buyback re-initiation timing. Watch whether the Q1 release provides an explicit leverage milestone or buyback authorization update.

Sources

J.M. Smucker Q4 FY2026 press release, SEC 8-K exhibit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000047/sjm06092026exhibit991.htm
J.M. Smucker Q3 FY2026 press release, SEC 8-K exhibit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000013/sjm20260226exhibit991.htm
J.M. Smucker Q2 FY2026 press release, SEC 8-K exhibit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141925000104/sjm20251125exhibit991.htm
J.M. Smucker Q1 FY2026 press release, SEC 8-K exhibit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141925000069/sjm20250827exhibit991.htm

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