tapebrief
SMCI · Q4 2025
SMCI · Q2 2026

SMCI · Q1 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Super Micro

Reported November 4, 2025

30-second summary

Super Micro reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $5.02B (-15.5% YoY, -13.4% QoQ), missing the low end of its own $6.0–7.0B guide by 16%; non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 also fell below the $0.40–0.52 guide. Yet management raised FY26 revenue guidance by $3B to "at least $36B" and guided Q2 to $10.0–11.0B — implying a near-doubling sequentially — citing >$13B of Blackwell Ultra orders. The credibility test is now whether a company that just missed by $1B can deliver a sequential ramp of $5B in 90 days.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$0.35

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$5.02B

-15.5% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

9.3%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$-0.95B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

3.6%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$5.02B-15.5%$5.80B-13.4%
EPS$0.35—$0.41-14.6%
Gross margin9.3%—9.5%-20bps
Operating margin3.6%—4.0%-36bps
Free cash flow$-0.95B—$0.79B-221.0%

Guidance

Q1 FY2026 results significantly missed prior guidance on revenue and EPS, but management raised full-year FY2026 revenue guidance by $3B to ≥$36B and provided optimistic Q2 guidance ($10B–$11B revenue), driven by >$13B Blackwell Ultra order book.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ1 FY2026$6.0B to $7.0B$5.02B-$0.98B below guide (low end missed by 16%)Missed
GAAP EPSQ1 FY2026$0.30 to $0.42$0.26-$0.04 below guide (below low end)Missed
Non-GAAP EPSQ1 FY2026$0.40 to $0.52$0.35-$0.05 below guide (below low end)Missed
Gross MarginQ1 FY2026~9.6% (similar to Q4 FY25)9.3%-0.3pts below guideMissed

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
GAAP EPSQ2 FY2026$0.37 to $0.45—
Non-GAAP EPSQ2 FY2026$0.46 to $0.54—
RevenueQ2 FY2026$10.0B to $11.0B—

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
Revenue
FY2026
≥$33.0B≥$36.0B+$3.0B (9% increase)Raised

Capacity & utilization

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Order Book>$13B in Blackwell Ultra orders

Profitability

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Adjusted EBITDA$334.9M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin6.7%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin9.5%
Operating Cash Flow-$917.5M

Management tone

No earnings call transcript was available for this quarter; tone analysis is limited to press release language vs prior quarters.

The press-release narrative has narrowed sharply. Q4 FY25 carried a multi-pillar story — DCBBS, enterprise, IoT, geographic expansion, four-to-eight customer scaling. The Q1 FY26 release reduces this to one anchor: "rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders." DCBBS is mentioned as the platform but the $13B figure is doing all the heavy lifting on credibility for the $3B FY raise.

The tonal dissonance is the missing acknowledgment of the miss. Q4 FY25 commentary openly attributed weakness to "a capital constraint" and "specification changes from a major new customer." Q1 FY26 — a deeper miss in both dollars and percentage — comes with no comparable diagnosis in the release. Management is asking the market to look past a $1B revenue shortfall toward a doubled-up Q2 with no public framework for what went wrong or why the rebound is reliable.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q1 FY26 gross margin print vs. the ~9.6% guide. GAAP gross margin came in at 9.3% (non-GAAP 9.5%), 10–30bps below the guide. The customer-mix and tariff drag is intensifying, not stabilizing.
Resolved negatively
Large-customer count progression toward 6–8 by FY26 end. Not disclosed in the press release.
Continue monitoring
Top-customer concentration trajectory. No update on the 21% customer or other >10% customers in the press release.
Continue monitoring
DCBBS as a percent of deal value. Qualitatively cited as the strategic engine ("Powered by DCBBS") but no quantification of deal-content share. The first hard data point management implied last quarter did not materialize.
Not resolved
Q2 FY26 implied run-rate vs. FY26 guide. Management raised FY26 to ≥$36B (not flat at $33B) and guided Q2 to $10.0–11.0B. The implied H2 average climbs to ~$10.25B per quarter — management chose to raise the bar, not shrink it. Status: Resolved positively on disclosure; raises execution risk
GB300/AMI-355X ramp commentary. Press release references Blackwell Ultra as the order-book driver (>$13B) but provides no shipment cadence detail.
Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 FY26 revenue vs. the $10.0–11.0B guide. A second consecutive miss — particularly anything below $9B — would force the FY26 ≥$36B guide to break. Watch whether the $13B Blackwell Ultra order book converts to recognized revenue on schedule.

Gross margin floor. GAAP gross margin has now stepped down from 13.3% (Q1 FY25) to 9.5% (Q4 FY25) to 9.3% (Q1 FY26). A Q2 print below 9.0% would invalidate management's stated 15–17% long-term recovery aspiration on any reasonable timeline.

Working capital and cash position. OCF swung -$1.8B QoQ to -$917.5M. Watch the cash balance against the $5.2B prior level — sustained negative OCF combined with a Q2 inventory build for the implied $10.5B revenue ramp could pressure liquidity.

Customer concentration disclosure. Last quarter disclosed one customer at 21% and three at 11%. Whether the $13B Blackwell Ultra book is concentrated in those same accounts or diversifies is the single most important risk-control data point.

Explanation of the Q1 miss. With no transcript available this quarter, the next earnings call must address what specifically caused $1B of revenue to slip from the guide — and why management has confidence it returns in Q2.

Sources

  1. Super Micro Q1 FY2026 press release (Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536525000029/exhibit991_20250930.htm
  2. Super Micro Q4 FY2025 tapebrief (prior quarter context).

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