tapebrief
SRE · Q1 2026

SRE · Q2 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Sempra

Reported August 6, 2026

30-second summary

Sempra raised its FY2026 GAAP EPS range to $5.02–$5.55 (from $4.87–$5.37) while explicitly reaffirming adjusted EPS at $4.80–$5.30 — the divergence tells you the raise is non-operating in character, not a signal of underlying earnings power. Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 came in against Q2 2025's $0.89, and revenue of $3.00B was essentially flat YoY (-0.1%), with YTD FY2026 revenue running -2.2% YoY. Offsetting the muted top line, FERC approved SDG&E's TO6 transmission settlement in the quarter at a ~10.28% authorized base ROE — a clean positive catalyst that lands in California. The narrative-defining change is quieter: last quarter's $9B "incremental to the incremental" capital opportunity language has disappeared from disclosure.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.16

+9.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$3.00B

-0.1% YoY

-4.5% vs est.

Key financials

Q2 FY2026
MetricQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoYQ1 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$3.00B$3.00B-0.1%$3.65B-18.0%
EPS$1.16$0.89+30.3%$1.51-23.2%

Guidance

Sempra raised full-year FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.15–$0.18 while reaffirming adjusted EPS and 2027–2030 plans; reflects operational momentum despite continued revenue headwinds.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideNew guideΔResult
GAAP EPS
FY 2026
$4.87 to $5.37$5.02 to $5.55+$0.15 to +$0.18 (high end raised, low end raised)Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted EPS ($4.80 to $5.30), 2027 EPS ($5.10 to $5.70), Long-Term EPS Growth Rate (7% to 9%)

Segment KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Sempra California$2.511B—+0.8%
Sempra Texas Utilities$0.512B—-3.4%
Sempra Infrastructure$3.023B—+0.1%
Natural gas utilities$1.364B—-7.2%
Electric utilities$1.158B—+12.3%
Energy-related businesses$0.475B$0.499B-4.8%
Sempra California earnings attributable to common shares (Q2)$297 million——
Sempra Texas Utilities earnings attributable to common shares (Q2)$346 million——
Sempra Infrastructure earnings attributable to common shares (Q2)$230 million——

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026
SegmentQ2 FY2026Q2 FY2025YoY
Oncor electric deliveries (Q2)44,595 million kWhs——
Oncor customer meters4,141 thousand——
Sempra California gas deliveries (Q2)174 Bcf——
Sempra California electric deliveries (Q2)3,891 million kWhs——
Capital deployed (H1 2026)$6.1 billion——

Management tone

Texas as one of several opportunities → Texas leaning in, $12B "probably conservative" → multi-year guide locked, $65B plan, no equity → incremental-to-incremental firming → $65B plan reaffirmed, incremental language dropped.

No transcript was available for Q2 FY2026, so the tone read below draws entirely on the press release language and the disclosure delta versus the prior four quarters. Treat as directional.

The "$9B incremental to the incremental" language has quietly disappeared from disclosure. Last quarter management explicitly framed ~$9B of incremental capital visibility above the $65B base plan, with the ERCOT South Dallas ~$2.9B award as the anchor and "later this summer" as the visibility marker. This quarter's press release features the $65B plan prominently and repeatedly ("record five-year 2026-2030 capital plan of approximately $65 billion, with 95% allocated to investments at our Texas and California utilities") but omits the $9B incremental framing. That is the summer visibility window management pointed to — and the outcome is silence rather than conversion into the base plan. Either the incremental opportunities are still forming (in which case why remove the language) or the internal capital allocation trade-offs are less favorable than telegraphed.

Transaction timing tightened but not accelerated. Last quarter both SI Partners and Ecogas were framed as "Q2–Q3 2026 close." This quarter Ecogas is dated to August (Q3) and SI Partners to "the third quarter of 2026" — no slippage past Q3, but no early close either. The narrower window is execution confidence, not upside.

FY2026 high-end steering language remains absent, now for the second consecutive quarter. Through all of FY2025 Sempra pointed to the high end of the range each quarter. Q1 FY2026 dropped that language; Q2 FY2026 does not restore it. With H1 non-GAAP EPS of $2.67 (~53% of the $5.05 midpoint), the company is tracking to the midpoint, not the top. The GAAP raise doesn't change the underlying operating trajectory.

The strategic posture has narrowed to capex-and-rate-base. The press release leans harder than prior quarters on the $65B / 95%-regulated framing and less on data center pipeline gigawattage, LNG portfolio positioning, or signed-FEA collateral. This is the "growth-through-capex, distancing from energy transition volatility" repositioning — clean and defensible, but also a narrower set of levers than the multi-thesis narrative management ran through most of FY2025.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

South Dallas $2.9B / $9B incremental capital firming — The $9B incremental language is absent from the Q2 FY2026 press release. Management pointed to "later this summer" for firming visibility, and the summer print delivers no dollar update and no conversion into the base $65B envelope. Either dropped from disclosure or being repositioned; either way, not the positive firming the market was set up for.
Resolved negatively
SI Partners and Ecogas closings (Q2–Q3 FY2026) — Ecogas México now guided to "close in August" (i.e. Q3, this month). SI Partners to KKR guided to close "in the third quarter of 2026" — the narrower end of the prior Q2–Q3 window. No slippage. Definitive proceeds, tax leakage, and the +$0.20 EPS accretion (2027–2031) framing were not refreshed on the print.
Continue monitoring
SDG&E TO6 FERC approval (H2 FY2026) — FERC approved SDG&E's TO6 transmission settlement in the quarter, with an authorized base ROE of approximately 10.28% and, per the press release, "a supportive regulatory framework for continued transmission investment." The decision the market was waiting on has landed, and it landed constructively.
Resolved positively
Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 first LNG and substantial completion — Not called out on the print. First LNG was guided to arrive in the current window; substantial completion "this summer." No slippage flagged and no confirmation of first LNG.
Continue monitoring
Credit metric improvement post-SI close — Not addressed on the print. Management's prior framing was a ~6-month lag from SI close, targeting end-of-year visibility. With SI now dated to Q3 FY2026, credit signal window shifts to Q1 FY2027.
Continue monitoring
FY2026 EPS steering language — High-end framing did not return. Adjusted EPS reaffirmed at $4.80–$5.30 with no directional guidance to the top of the range. H1 non-GAAP EPS of $2.67 puts Sempra at ~53% of midpoint — tracking, not exceeding. The GAAP raise is an adjustment-math event, not an operational steer.
Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

SI Partners closing in Q3 FY2026 — this is now the current quarter's binary. Watch for definitive proceeds, tax leakage (prior transcript suggested ~20%), and reaffirmation of the +$0.20 annual EPS accretion (2027–2031). Any slip past Q3 compresses the 2027 accretion runway and puts the FY2027 $5.10–$5.70 range under pressure.

The $9B incremental capital opportunity — status update — the language was in every print for two quarters and vanished from this one. Watch whether the Q3 FY2026 print restores the framing, converts a portion into the base plan, or drops it entirely. Silence for a second consecutive quarter would be a material change to the growth story.

TO6 earnings/rate-base flow-through — with the FERC approval now in hand at ~10.28% ROE, the forward watch is implementation: how the settlement translates into SDG&E transmission rate base and California segment earnings over H2 FY2026, and whether management quantifies the contribution on the Q3 print.

FY2026 EPS steering — with adjusted EPS reaffirmed for the fourth straight quarter and no high-end language, watch whether Q3 introduces directional framing to the top of the $4.80–$5.30 range, or whether the company lands at the midpoint — a first for Sempra in the recent guidance regime.

Revenue trajectory — H1 FY2026 is running -2.2% YoY consolidated with natural gas utilities -7.2%. Watch whether Q3 arrests the top-line decline or whether the "growth-through-capex, ignore revenue" framing has to hold for a third consecutive quarter.

Credit metric progression post-SI close — with SI dated to Q3 FY2026, the ~6-month rating agency lag pushes visibility into Q1 FY2027. Watch S&P/Moody's commentary in H2 FY2026 and any early reaffirmation of the debt-to-equity ≤49% glide path.

Sources

  1. Sempra Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed 2026-08-06 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1032208/000103220826000043/ex99_1x20260630xearningsta.htm
  2. Tapebrief Q1 FY2026 SRE brief (internal, for prior-quarter framing and watch-list resolution)
  3. Tapebrief Q4 FY2025 SRE brief (internal, for multi-quarter guidance trajectory)

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