tapebrief
SRE · Q3 2025
Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

SRE · Q4 2025 Earnings

Sempra

Reported February 26, 2026

30-second summary

Sempra closed FY2025 with non-GAAP EPS of $4.69 — top of the prior $4.30–$4.70 range — reaffirmed FY2026 at $4.80–$5.30, and for the first time put dollar guidance on FY2027 ($5.10–$5.70) and FY2030 ($6.70–$7.50). The 2026–2030 capital plan was lifted to $65B from the prior $56B 2025–2029 plan (+16%), and management states the entire plan is funded without new common equity issuance. Q4 revenue was $3.75B (-0.2% YoY) and is the least interesting number on the page.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.28

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$3.75B

-0.2% YoY

Key financials

Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$3.75B-0.2%$3.15B+19.0%
EPS$1.28—$1.11+15.3%

Guidance

Sempra reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance and beat FY2025 guidance at the high end, while extending visibility with new FY2027 and FY2030 EPS outlooks and announcing a significant increase in its 5-year capital plan to $65B.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
EPS (non-GAAP)FY2025$4.30 to $4.70$4.69at high end of guideBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
EPS (non-GAAP)FY2027$5.10 to $5.70—
EPS (non-GAAP)FY2030$6.70 to $7.50—
Capital Expenditures (5-year plan)FY2026–FY2030$65 billion—

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (non-GAAP) ($4.80 to $5.30)

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025YoY
Natural gas revenue$2.124B-9.3%
Electric revenue$1.202B+17.0%
Energy-related businesses revenue$0.423B+9.0%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025
SegmentQ4 FY2025
Oncor electric deliveries40,782 million kWhs
Oncor customer meters4,111 thousand
Sempra California gas deliveries205 Bcf
Sempra California electric deliveries4,356 million kWhs
Sempra California gas customer meters7,131 thousand
Sempra California electric customer meters1,548 thousand
Five-year capital plan 2026-2030$65 billion
2026 adjusted EPS guidance$4.80 to $5.30

Management tone

Regulatory uncertainty (Q1) → Texas leaning in, $12B "probably conservative" (Q2) → KKR/SI defined, Oncor +30% telegraphed (Q3) → multi-year guide locked, $65B plan, no equity (Q4).

Forward visibility has compounded from CAGR percentages to dated dollar ranges across the decade. Three quarters ago Sempra communicated long-term growth as a 7–9% CAGR. Last quarter the framing moved to "high end or above" of that CAGR. This quarter management put hard numbers on FY2027 ($5.10–$5.70) and FY2030 ($6.70–$7.50), and the press release frames this as "improved outlook for future earnings growth through the end of the decade." Issuing a 2030 EPS range five years out is unusual for a regulated utility holding company and signals that management views the rate-base trajectory and Texas regulatory backdrop as locked rather than probabilistic.

The capital plan and the funding plan are now disclosed together — equity issuance is off the table. Last quarter the watch was whether Oncor's 30%+ uplift would push the consolidated envelope past $56B and whether the funding mix would hold. This quarter it does: $65B (+16%) "without the need for common equity issuances." That single phrase, repeated in the qualitative shifts, is the most material change in tone of the year. A 16% step-up in capex paired with no equity dilution reframes the plan as accretive rather than dilutive — directly addressing the dominant investor objection coming into the print.

The portfolio is being declared regulated, full stop. Last quarter California was reframed as a "complement" to Texas. This quarter the disclosed mix is 95% of FY2026–FY2030 capex directed to regulated utilities in Texas and California, with SI Partners and Ecogas both teed up to close in Q2–Q3 2026. The strategic narrative — utility-heavy, contracted infrastructure JV, no commodity exposure — has gone from articulated to engineered. The Texas rate-case settlement extending regulatory certainty to 2030 removes the last remaining major uncertainty management flagged a year ago.

Hedging language collapsed to transactional mechanics. The only remaining qualifiers in the tone read are SI Partners closing conditions (Q2–Q3 2026), Ecogas closing conditions (Q2–Q3 2026), and 50–150bps of credit cushion targeting — i.e. timing on known transactions and balance-sheet management, not strategic uncertainty. Compared with the four-to-five-year Texas rate-case uncertainty management was articulating 12 months ago, the posture is materially harder.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Regulatory certainty achieved in Texas through settlement extending to 2030Record $65B capital plan with 11% five-year rate base CAGR and 18% CAGR at EncoreSI Partners transaction de-risking balance sheet and enabling pure-play utility transitionTransmission-led growth strategy (70% of Encore capex) as enabler for data center and large load growthInternal cash flow generation increased $5B year-over-year eliminating equity issuance needCalifornia stabilization with modest growth while Texas becomes majority rate base by 2030

Risks management surfaced:

Batch Zero process outcomes and ERCOT transmission plan developments could shift capital allocation timingCalifornia GRC execution risk in 2028 filingSI Partners transaction closing conditions and timing (Q2-Q3 2026)Ecogas transaction closing conditions (Q2-Q3 2026)Rating agency downgrade thresholds and credit metric management through plan period

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Oncor 2026–2030 capital plan dollar disclosure — Resolved. The consolidated five-year plan was lifted to $65B (vs. prior $56B 2025–2029), a $9B / 16% step-up, with 95% directed at regulated Texas and California utilities and Encore embedding an 18% rate-base CAGR.
Resolved positively
SI Partners / KKR transaction parameters — Close window held at Q2–Q3 2026; press release reiterates "subject to closing conditions." Implied valuation beyond the $10B headline, tax leakage detail, and definitive use of proceeds were not quantified incrementally on this print.
Continue monitoring
Oncor base rate case final order — Not addressed on the print. The Q3 framing pointed to a Hannon, Texas settlement that provides regulatory certainty through 2030 with no new rate case expected to be filed until April–May 2030, which is the bigger structural answer even though the formal Q1 2026 final order remains pending.
Resolved positively
ERCOT / SB 6 interim FEA disposition — Not specifically disclosed on the print. The 19 GW signed / $2.7B collateral data point was not refreshed, and the press release does not address SB 6 rulemaking outcome.
Continue monitoring
2027 EPS guidance initiation — Resolved. FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guided to $5.10–$5.70, with FY2030 outlook of $6.70–$7.50 layered on top. Sempra moved from CAGR framing to dated dollar ranges across the decade.
Resolved positively
Equity issuance discipline — Resolved. Management explicitly states the $65B plan is funded without new common equity issuance, with internal cash flow generation up $5B YoY and a path to debt-to-equity of 49% or below.
Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

SI Partners and Ecogas closings — both targeted Q2–Q3 2026. Watch for definitive proceeds, tax leakage detail, and whether the +$0.20 average annual EPS accretion (2027–2031) framing from the SI deal is reaffirmed at close. Any slip past Q3 2026 compresses the 2027 accretion runway.

Oncor base rate case final order (Q1 2026) — ROE, capital structure, and any disallowances; sets return economics on the embedded 18% Encore rate-base CAGR.

Encore $9B / $10B incremental capital tracking — management has flagged tracked upside opportunities at Encore primarily in outer years (2028–2030). Watch whether any of this converts into the base plan during 2026, which would push the $65B envelope higher without equity.

Credit metric trajectory — 50–150bps cushion to downgrade thresholds is the explicit target. Watch S&P/Moody's commentary post the SI sale close and whether the debt-to-equity glide path to ≤49% is reaffirmed at the Q1 print.

FY2026 EPS landing within range — first quarter under the reaffirmed $4.80–$5.30 guide. Watch whether management again steers toward the high end as they did all year on FY2025.

Batch Zero / ERCOT transmission plan outcomes — flagged as a risk in the tone read; could shift capital allocation timing within the $65B envelope.

Sources

  1. Sempra Q4 FY2025 Earnings Release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1), filed 2026-02-26 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1032208/000103220826000008/ex99_1x20251231xearningsta.htm
  2. Tapebrief Q3 FY2025 SRE brief (internal, for prior-quarter framing and watch-list resolution)

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