STZ · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Constellation Brands

Reported April 8, 2026

30-second summary

Q4 net sales fell 11% to $1.92B but beat consensus by 2.1%, with beer net sales actually up 1.3% — the first positive segment print of the year — while Wine & Spirits collapsed 58% on divestitures. The pre-announced FY27 reset landed roughly as telegraphed: enterprise organic sales guided -1% to +1% (vs. FY26 actuals of -10%), beer margin guided 37–38% (down from the previously defended 39–40% range), and FY26 comparable EPS closed at $11.82 — above the top of the held $11.30–$11.60 range. The stabilization narrative is now formally on the page; the question is whether ±1% beer is achievable when Q4 only printed +1.3% on the easiest comp of the year.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$1.90

+11.1% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$1.92B

-11.0% YoY

+2.1% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

49.6%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

23.0%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$1.92B	-11.0%	$2.22B	-13.6%
EPS	$1.90	—	$3.06	-37.9%
Gross margin	49.6%	—	53.2%	-360bps
Operating margin	23.0%	—	31.1%	-810bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Reported EPS	FY2026	$9.72 - $10.02	$11.82	+$1.80 - $2.10 above guide	Beat
Comparable EPS	FY2026	$11.30 - $11.60	$11.82	+$0.22 - $0.52 above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Enterprise Organic Net Sales Growth	FY2027	(1)% - 1%	—
Beer Net Sales Growth	FY2027	(1)% - 1%	—
Wine & Spirits Organic Net Sales Growth	FY2027	(1)% - 1%	—
Enterprise Operating Margin	FY2027	32% - 33%	—
Beer Operating Margin	FY2027	37% - 38%	—
Wine & Spirits Operating Margin	FY2027	5% - 6%	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Operating Cash Flow	FY2026	$2.5 - $2.6 billion	$2.4 - $2.5 billion	-$0.1B at high end	Lowered
Free Cash Flow	FY2026	$1.3 - $1.4 billion	$1.6 - $1.7 billion	+$0.2 - $0.3B	Raised
Enterprise Organic Net Sales Decline	FY2026	4% - 6%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Beer Net Sales Decline	FY2026	2% - 4%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Wine & Spirits Organic Net Sales Decline	FY2026	17% - 20%	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	YoY
Beer	$1.726B	+1.3%
Wine and Spirits	$0.194B	-58.0%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Beer Shipments	86.3M case equivalents
Beer Depletions Growth	0.6%
Beer Dollar Share Gains	0.6 share points
Wine and Spirits Depletions Growth	8.3%

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026
Beer Segment Operating Margin	33.2%
Wine and Spirits Segment Operating Margin	1.3%
Consolidated Operating Margin	23.0%
Free Cash Flow	$1.794B

Management tone

No transcript was available for this print; tone analysis is omitted. The press-release commentary — "we expect the operating environment to remain dynamic given the evolving socioeconomic backdrop and limited near-term visibility" alongside "we remain encouraged by the momentum we saw in the fourth quarter" — is consistent with the cautious-stabilization posture management telegraphed on the Q3 call.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

The April FY27-28 reset. All three sub-items resolved. (i) Beer operating margin range cut to 37–38% from the previously defended 39–40% — a 150–200bps reset. (ii) FY27 capex was not quantified in the press-release extraction available; the operating cash flow guide of $2.4–$2.5B vs. FCF $1.6–$1.7B implies ~$800M of capex, materially below the prior multi-billion Mexico build cadence — consistent with the "delay or defer" posture management adopted in Q3, but the explicit capex number needs transcript confirmation. (iii) FY27 comparable EPS guided $11.20–$11.90, essentially flat to FY26 actual of $11.82 — no further base-cut, but no growth either. Status: Resolved negatively on margin range; Resolved positively on EPS holding flat.

Q4 beer operating margin against the 38.0% Q3 print. Q4 beer margin came in at 33.2% — a 480bps sequential step-down, consistent with the Q4-specific headwind stack management had pre-disclosed (depreciation, tariffs, seasonal deleverage). The FY27 beer margin guide of 37–38% formally cuts the run-rate expectation.

Resolved negatively

Beer depletions stabilizing or worsening. Q4 depletions printed +0.6% — a clear inflection from Q3's -3.0% and the first positive depletion print of the year. Beer net sales +1.3% in Q4. The "very hard to say we've hit the bottom" framing from Q3 has, at least for one quarter, been contradicted by the data.

Resolved positively

Q4 buyback pace. The press-release extraction does not disclose Q4 buyback pace. Full-year capital return commentary is limited in the available inputs.

Continue monitoring

The GAAP-comparable EPS gap. FY26 comparable EPS landed at $11.82 against a cut GAAP range of $9.72–$10.02 — the GAAP figure substantially beat the cut range. The gap compressed sharply rather than widened a third time. The FY27 ranges are now tight: comparable $11.20–$11.90 vs. reported $11.10–$11.80, a $0.10 gap vs. the ~$1.58 gap at Q3.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 FY27 beer depletions against the +0.6% Q4 print. The FY27 beer net sales guide of -1% to +1% requires depletions to stay roughly at the Q4 inflection level. A Q1 print back below zero — particularly on the easier comp — would put the FY guide at risk in its first quarter.

Beer operating margin run-rate against the 37–38% FY27 range. Q1 historically is a high-margin quarter (39.1% in Q1 FY26). A Q1 FY27 print below 38% would suggest the 37–38% FY range is itself optimistic; a print above 39% would suggest the cut was conservative.

Wine & Spirits organic stabilization. Q4 depletions +8.3% is encouraging, but the FY27 ±1% organic guide vs. FY26 guided -17% to -20% is the most aggressive inflection in the plan. Watch Q1 organic net sales — a return to mid-single-digit declines would force a re-cut.

Capex disclosure clarity. The implied FY27 capex of ~$800M (OCF $2.4–$2.5B minus FCF $1.6–$1.7B) is well below recent run-rate. Watch the 10-K and any May/June commentary for an explicit FY27 capex number and the multi-year Mexico capacity trajectory.

Buyback pace under the tighter FCF envelope. FY27 FCF of $1.6–$1.7B is $100M+ below FY26 actual. After $824M of YTD repurchases through Q3 FY26, FY27 buyback capacity is meaningfully constrained — Q1 FY27 pace will signal whether management is defending IG ratings or returning aggressively into a stabilizing volume picture.

Sources

Constellation Brands Q4 FY2026 earnings press release (SEC 8-K exhibit, filed April 8, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000008/stzex991_22820268kearnings.htm
Constellation Brands Q3 FY2026 earnings press release (prior-quarter guidance baseline): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000002/stzex991_113020258kearnings.htm

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