TAP · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bearish

Molson Coors Beverage Company

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Rahul Goyal did issue a 2026 framework rather than defer it, and the framework is worse than the bear case: underlying EPS guided to decline 11-15%, pre-tax income -15% to -18%, free cash flow cut to $1.1B (±10%) from FY25's $1.3B starting point, and net interest expense raised 16% to $260M. Q4 revenue fell 2.7% to $2.66B with Americas brand volume down 4.3%, in line with the deceleration trajectory we flagged. The story has now moved from "cyclical softness" to an explicit multi-year reset: revenue is guided flat in 2026 only because cost-out and the Americas restructuring are absorbing what management calls "meaningful" commodity inflation, while every profit line steps down again.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.21

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.66B

-2.7% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

36.4%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

12.2%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.66B	-2.7%	$2.97B	-10.6%
EPS	$1.21	—	$1.67	-27.5%
Gross margin	36.4%	—	39.5%	-314bps
Operating margin	12.2%	—	-115.4%	+12758bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue growth (constant currency)	FY 2025	3% to 4% decline	-4.2%	beat the low end of guide by ~0.2pts	Beat
Underlying income before income taxes (constant currency)	FY 2025	12% to 15% decline (expecting low end)	not separately disclosed	in-line	Met
Underlying free cash flow	FY 2025	$1.3 billion, plus or minus 10% (expecting low end)	$1.14 billion	-$160M below midpoint; within low-end expectations	Met
Net interest expense	FY 2025	$225 million, plus or minus 5%	not separately disclosed	in-line	Met

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Depreciation and amortization	FY 2026	$675 million, plus or minus 5% (FY2025)	$720 million, plus or minus 5% (FY2026)	+$45M (+6.7%)	Raised
Consolidated net interest expense	FY 2026	$225 million, plus or minus 5% (FY2025)	$260 million, plus or minus 5% (FY2026)	+$35M (+15.6%)	Raised
Underlying free cash flow	FY 2026	$1.3 billion, plus or minus 10% (FY2025 guide)	$1.1 billion, plus or minus 10% (FY2026 guide)	-$200M (-15.4%)	Lowered
Underlying EPS (non-GAAP)	FY 2026	7% to 10% decline (FY2025)	11% to 15% decline (FY2026)	-4 to -5pts wider decline range	Lowered
Underlying income before income taxes	FY 2026	12% to 15% decline (FY2025)	15% to 18% decline (FY2026)	-3 to -6pts wider decline	Lowered
Revenue growth (constant currency)	FY 2026	3% to 4% decline (FY2025)	flat, plus or minus 1% (FY2026)	+2 to +4pts (improvement in range; absolute growth flat vs declines)	Lowered

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Capital expenditures ($650 million, plus or minus 5%)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Americas	$2.066B	-5.0%
EMEA&APAC	$0.604B	+6.1%
Americas Brand Volume Growth	-4.3%	—
EMEA&APAC Brand Volume Growth	-5.0%	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Financial Volume (hectoliters)	17.146 million
Brand Volume (hectoliters)	18.028 million
Net Sales Per Hectoliter	$155.53

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
COGS Per Hectoliter Growth	8.1% increase reported, 6.6% constant currency

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Net Debt to Underlying EBITDA	2.33x
Underlying Free Cash Flow	$1.14 billion (full year)

Management tone

No transcript was available for this report; tone analysis is drawn from the press-release language and the FY26 guidance framework against the prior-quarter narrative arc.

Industry cyclical defense (Q2) → New-CEO operational reset (Q3) → Multi-year inflation/demand reset codified in guide (Q4)

The Q3 brief flagged that the verbal framing of US softness as cyclical and the accounting framing of the $3.6B Americas impairment were pointing in opposite directions, and that one of the two narratives would give. The FY26 guide is the resolution: the cyclical narrative gave. The press-release qualitative language now states "commodity inflation in particular to be a meaningful headwind in 2026" and ties the cost savings program to "mitigate" — not offset — that inflation. This is a meaningful escalation from Q3, when management still described softness as "incremental" cyclical pressure sitting on a structural base. There is no longer a cyclical framing in the FY26 setup; there is a multi-year inflation problem that headcount reduction is intended to partially absorb.

Rahul's first full guidance cycle as CEO has produced a framework that codifies the structural reset rather than deferring it — answering Watch Item #1 with action rather than delay. The framework's specific contents, however, are uniformly negative: revenue stabilization is bought with a wider profit decline range than FY25, FCF is cut $200M, and net interest expense steps up materially. The Americas Restructuring Plan referenced in the press release is now an explicit pillar of the FY26 cost-savings construct, suggesting the 400-position action announced in Q3 has been supplemented or scaled within the plan — though the press release does not quantify additional headcount.

The reaffirmation of capex at $650M alongside a $200M FCF cut is itself a tonal signal. Management is not pulling back on investment despite the deteriorating profit outlook, which can be read two ways: conviction in a longer-term recovery, or insufficient flexibility to cut spend without further structural impairment to the brand portfolio. The Blue Moon and Staropramen writedowns from Q3 argue for the latter reading.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Rahul issues a 2026 framework on the Q4 call or defers it. The framework was issued — EPS -11% to -15%, pre-tax income -15% to -18%, revenue flat ±1% cc, FCF $1.1B ±10%, capex $650M, net interest $260M. The credibility-gap risk we flagged from deferral is replaced by the harder fact that the issued numbers are worse than the bear case running into the print.

Resolved negatively

Scale of further headcount or portfolio action beyond the announced 400-person reduction. The press release references an "Americas Restructuring Plan announced in the fourth quarter of 2025" as the cost-savings backbone, and FY GAAP operating margin of -20.99% versus FY non-GAAP EPS of $5.42 indicates very large non-cash charges (impairments, restructuring) flowed through the GAAP line in addition to the Q3 goodwill writedown. Specific incremental headcount and divestiture detail will require the transcript.

Continue monitoring

Beyond-beer capital deployment. No M&A or portfolio action disclosed in the press release.

Continue monitoring

Whether Q4 brand volume in Americas decelerates further from -4.4% or stabilizes. Q4 Americas brand volume came in at -4.3%, essentially in line with Q3's -4.4%. No stabilization, no further deceleration. But Americas revenue worsened to -5.0% from -3.6%, indicating mix turned against the segment even as volume held its trajectory. The FY26 guide of revenue flat ±1% requires Americas to stop declining at this pace, which the Q4 trend does not yet support.

Resolved negatively

FY2025 FCF print versus the implied $1.17B low end. FY25 underlying FCF came in at $1.14B, modestly below the $1.17B low end. The miss is small in dollars but symbolically important: it forces the FY26 FCF guide to start from a base below the low end of the prior framework, and management responded by cutting the FY26 guide to $1.1B ±10%.

Resolved negatively

2026 refinancing approach for the maturing notes. The $35M step-up in FY26 net interest expense guidance ($225M → $260M, +15.6%) is the implicit answer: refinancing is being priced at materially higher rates than the maturing paper. No explicit approach disclosed in the press release. Status: Resolved negatively (cost), specifics still pending.

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 Americas brand volume trajectory. A continuation of the -4% to -5% volume decline into Q1 would invalidate the FY26 revenue-flat guide before the year is a quarter old and force another mid-year cut. Watch for any management commentary on January-February depletion trends on the Q1 call.

COGS/HL inflation cadence. Q4 COGS/HL ran +6.6% cc, double the Q3 rate. If Q1 holds at this level or worsens, the "mitigate" framing on cost-savings is insufficient and operating margin steps down materially below the FY26 implied range.

Specific quantification of the Americas Restructuring Plan. The plan is referenced in the press release as the FY26 cost-savings pillar but not sized in dollars or headcount in the disclosed material. The Q4 transcript and 10-K will be the source of truth; the size determines whether the FY26 EPS guide has cushion or is already running tight.

FCF defense against the $1.1B guide. $990M at the low end would be the first sub-$1B underlying FCF print in this cycle and would force a buyback pace reassessment. Q1 working capital trends are the early read.

Net debt/EBITDA versus the 2.5x ceiling as 2026 EBITDA falls. The current 2.33x cushion is ~17bps of EBITDA; an EBITDA step-down consistent with -15% to -18% pre-tax income would push the ratio toward or past 2.5x, at which point either capex, buyback, or the dividend has to give.

Any portfolio action on Blue Moon, regional craft, or beyond-beer. A divestiture announcement would be the first concrete capital-allocation signal of the Goyal era and would directly inform the FY26 FCF and leverage math.

Sources

Molson Coors Q4 2025 Earnings Release, filed 2026-02-18: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/24545/000110465926017055/tm266541d1_ex99-1.htm
Tapebrief Q3 2025 brief on TAP (internal, for prior-guide comparison and watch list).
Tapebrief Q2 2025 brief on TAP (internal, for FY25 starting framework).

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