TKO · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

TKO Group Holdings

Reported August 3, 2026

30-second summary

TKO delivered Q2 revenue of $1.547B (+18.2% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS of $1.34, and raised full-year FY2026 guidance to $5.775–5.825B revenue and $2.275–2.305B adjusted EBITDA — the second raise inside the FY26 cycle. UFC re-accelerated to +28.8% growth at a 52% segment EBITDA margin (margin down 700bps YoY entirely due to the UFC Freedom 250 White House event financial profile; absent Freedom 250, management states margins would have increased YoY), WWE held +11.6% at 59%, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin hit 42% with 54% FCF conversion. The FY26 setup articulated on the Q4 FY2025 call — media rights step-up + FIP framework + partnership ramp — is not just landing; it's coming in ahead of the initial guide bridge.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$1.34

+22.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$1.55B

+18.2% YoY

+1.1% vs est.

Free cash flow

Q2 FY2026

$0.35B

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

27.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$1.55B	$1.31B	+18.3%	$1.60B	-3.1%
EPS	$1.34	$1.17	+14.5%	$1.12	+19.6%
Operating margin	27.8%	28.1%	-30bps	21.2%	+660bps
Free cash flow	$0.35B	$0.38B	-6.7%	$0.67B	-48.1%

Guidance

TKO raised full-year FY2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance on the back of strong Q2 execution across all segments, with EPS beating consensus by 23%.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	No explicit Q2 FY2026 next-quarter guide provided in prior disclosure	$1.547 billion	Beat consensus estimate by $0.017 billion (+1.1%); delivered 18.2% YoY growth	Beat
EPS	Q2 FY2026	No explicit Q2 FY2026 EPS guide provided in prior disclosure	$1.34	+$0.25 above consensus (+22.9%)	Beat

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY 2026	$5.675 billion to $5.775 billion	$5.775 billion to $5.825 billion	+$0.05 billion at low end; +$0.05 billion at high end; midpoint raised from $5.725 billion to $5.80 billion	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2026	$2.240 billion to $2.290 billion	$2.275 billion to $2.305 billion	+$0.035 billion at low end; +$0.015 billion at high end; midpoint raised from $2.265 billion to $2.29 billion	Raised

Segment performance

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
UFC	$0.536B	$0.416B	+28.8%
WWE	$0.621B	$0.556B	+11.7%
IMG	$0.355B	$0.307B	+15.6%
UFC Adjusted EBITDA Margin	52%	59%	—
WWE Adjusted EBITDA Margin	59%	59%	—
IMG Adjusted EBITDA Margin	22%	—	—

Profitability

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	$649.9 million	$526.5 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	42%	40%	—
Free Cash Flow	$349.6 million	—	—
Free Cash Flow Conversion	54%	71%	—
Operating Cash Flow	$374.0 million	$396.2 million	—

Management tone

Narrative arc: ESPN PLE deal validates rights baseline (Q2 FY2025) → Paramount UFC deal closes and resets distribution model (Q3 FY2025) → Media rights stack as 39.6% margin foundation (Q4 FY2025) → Growth is compounding, not just delivering (Q1 FY2026) → Capitalization on commercial promise across the stack (Q2 FY2026).

Transcript not yet available; tone analysis derived from press release commentary and prior-quarter arc.

The framing in this quarter's press release shifts one layer further than Q1's "compounding" theme. Shapiro's quote — "our global fan base is expanding, and we are capitalizing on the commercial promise across ticketing, premium hospitality, marketing partnerships, and financial incentive packages" — moves from validation to expansion. Two quarters ago the story was that the media rights stack was the floor; this quarter management is describing the layers built on top of that floor (ticketing, hospitality, partnerships, FIP) as an independent growth engine. This is the first quarter TKO's commentary explicitly frames the non-media-rights revenue channels as the compounding lever.

The AI framing continued to invert. Emanuel's quote positions "premium live content and experiences" as "heating up in an increasingly AI-driven world" — explicit strategic positioning rather than defensive rebuttal. Three quarters ago (Q3 FY2025) AI was not a talking point; two quarters ago it was a defensive rebuttal; this quarter it's a strategic positioning statement in the CEO's headline commentary.

The multi-year framing intensified. Q4 FY2025 emphasized "2026 is a year of execution." Q1 FY2026 introduced "compounding." Q2 FY2026 introduces "multi-year growth, margin expansion, and overall value creation" — the first quarter where management is explicitly extending the FY26 margin frame into a structural multi-year trajectory rather than a one-time step-up. This is the tone signal that matters most for the equity: management is signaling that the FY26 margin expansion is not a peak.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

UFC segment margin holding at 63%+. Q2 UFC segment EBITDA margin came in at 52%, materially below Q1's 63% and the prior-year Q2 of 59%. The press release explicitly attributes the entire YoY decline to the financial profile of UFC Freedom 250 (White House event, June 2026) — a one-off event with atypical economics — and states that absent Freedom 250, UFC margins would have increased year-over-year. Revenue growth of +28.8% also more than offset on the EBITDA-dollars line (+15% / +$35.6M). Status: Resolved with caveat — headline margin print is soft but explained by an identifiable non-recurring event; the "clean" underlying trajectory looks intact but is not directly quantified in the release.

H1 cumulative FCF conversion vs. the FY 60% guide. H1 cumulative FCF conversion per the press release is 85% ($1,024.1M / $1,199.7M) — well above the FY 60% target and supportive of buyback capacity. Q2's 54% quarterly conversion partially gave back the Q1 timing benefit as expected, but the H1 cumulative picture is unambiguously ahead of guide. Status: Resolved positively

Partnership and marketing revenue reacceleration. UFC partnerships and marketing revenue jumped from $85.8M to $144.8M (+68.8% YoY), primarily driven by UFC Freedom 250 new partners and renewal fee increases. This is the clearest single positive datapoint in the segment breakdown, though it is Freedom 250-inflated and the run-rate ex-event is not disclosed. Status: Resolved positively with caveat

First Zuffa Boxing revenue/EBITDA quantification. No standalone Zuffa Boxing revenue or EBITDA disclosure in the Q2 press release; the property continues to be discussed qualitatively via Corporate and Other management fees. Status: Continue monitoring

Middle East Q4 event execution. No update in the press release on the six-event Middle East slate. Status: Continue monitoring

CBS/Paramount sampling-to-sponsorship conversion. UFC media rights, production and content revenue grew $64.7M (primarily the Paramount deal impact), and partnerships/marketing grew $59.0M — but the release attributes the partnership lift primarily to Freedom 250 rather than isolating a Paramount audience-driven sponsorship pull. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

UFC segment margin ex-Freedom 250. Management has stated that absent Freedom 250 the UFC margin would have increased YoY, but has not quantified the "clean" figure. Watch Q3 for whether the underlying UFC margin (in a quarter without a comparable one-off event) prints at or above the prior-year Q3 base, which is the cleanest test of the structural trajectory.

WWE segment margin holding at 59%. Q2 hit 59%, matching the prior-year Q2. Watch whether this represents the new ESPN PLE steady-state or a quarter-mix peak; a Q3 print in the mid-50s would be the tell.

FY26 EBITDA margin implied by the raised guide. The revenue raise dropped through at roughly steady-state incremental margin ($75M revenue midpoint raise vs. $25M EBITDA midpoint raise = ~33% incremental margin, below the ~40% consolidated). Watch whether this reflects mix (higher-margin FIP recognition still H2-weighted) or event-cost drag; the H2 print will decide.

First Zuffa Boxing quantification. Two consecutive quarters of no financial disclosure — watch whether Q3 or Q4 breaks out revenue/EBITDA.

H2 FCF conversion vs. the FY 60% target. H1 cumulative is 85%; H2 has meaningful cushion to land the FY comfortably above 60%. Watch whether Paramount payment-schedule working-capital dynamics and World Cup escrow reversal keep H2 conversion supportive.

Partnership pipeline visibility ex-Freedom 250. UFC partnerships +68.8% YoY was Freedom 250-heavy. Watch Q3 for whether the underlying partnership run-rate continues to expand once the event-driven contribution normalizes.

Sources

TKO Group Holdings Q2 FY2026 press release / 8-K Exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526330561/tko-ex99_1.htm
Prior-quarter TKO briefs (Q2 FY2025 through Q1 FY2026) for guidance-change baseline and watch-list continuity

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