TRGP · Q4 2025 Earnings

Q2 (project pull-forwards) → Q3 (dividend pre-announced, capex up $300M) → Q4 (capex up $1.2B, $6B run-rate EBITDA quantified).

The three-quarter arc is a steady escalation of capital ambition matched by an equal escalation of forward-EBITDA commitments. In Q2, the story was project pull-forwards within an unchanged $3.0B capex envelope. In Q3, management broke their normal February cadence to pre-announce a 25% 2026 dividend hike and nudged capex to $3.3B. This quarter, capex jumps another $1.2B to $4.5B and — for the first time — management put a hard number on post-Speedway run-rate EBITDA: "we expect Target reaching run rate adjusted EBITDA of over $6 billion following the completion of Speedway." The pattern is a management team converting an inventory of qualitative confidence into quantified forward commitments quarter by quarter.

The illustrative capital case shifted materially. Last year's framework assumed two plants per year and ~$1.7B average post-Speedway growth capex; this call moves to three plants per year and ~$2.5B average. Management's framing: "Our expectations for 2026 are consistent with our previous commentary and our outlook for 2027 and beyond has only improved." Read this as producer revisions running ahead of the 2024 plan — Delaware specifically, where management noted producer revisions are stronger than Midland.

Permian growth has been re-characterized as structurally locked in rather than commercially dependent. Three quarters ago the narrative emphasized winning new dedications to sustain growth; this quarter management said: "We don't need it to fill the plants up that we've announced and we don't need it to continue to grow in the Permian, I think further commercial success would just be additive." That is a meaningful shift in how dependent the growth thesis is on go-forward commercial wins — they're now framed as upside, not baseline.

Marketing-gain conservatism remained intact but with an upside callout. Jen Neal: "Consistent with our past practice we're very conservative about how we forecast marketing gains...we haven't factored that in in a material way. [But] there could be some incremental opportunities...marketing gains...would also drive us...to the higher end of the range." The Q3 EBITDA top-end achievement was explicitly aided by unforecast marketing gains; the FY2026 guide leaves the same option open.

Waha pricing remains the one explicit hedge: "we expect natural gas prices at Waha to remain volatile throughout much of the year." Improved egress is positioned as a long-term positive, but management is not yet willing to underwrite a fee-floor uplift in the 2026 base case.