TRMB · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Trimble Inc.

Reported February 10, 2026

30-second summary

Trimble closed FY25 with Q4 revenue of $969.8M (−1% reported / +4% organic per press release; management led with +9% on a further-adjusted organic basis), beating the $967M high end of guide by $2.8M, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 clearing the $0.99 top of range. The bigger signal is FY26: revenue guided to $3.81–3.91B (midpoint +7.6% vs FY25), ARR growth guided to 13% — roughly in line with the Q4 organic exit rate of 14% — and EBITDA margin guided to expand 50bps to 29.8% — putting Trimble within striking distance of the 30% "3-4-30" target one year early. Field Systems and AECO ARR are now compounding through a deliberate hardware-to-software conversion that management framed as "50%+ software & services for the year" — the subscription pivot is no longer a thesis, it's an outcome.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.00

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.97B

-1.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

72.0%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

22.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.97B	-1.0%	$0.90B	+7.6%
EPS	$1.00	—	$0.81	+23.5%
Gross margin	72.0%	—	68.9%	+310bps
Operating margin	22.3%	—	16.7%	+560bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	$927 million to $967 million	$969.8 million	+$2.8 million above high end of guide	Beat
Non-GAAP EPS	Q4 FY2025	$0.91 to $0.99	$1.00	Above midpoint; at/above high end of guide	Met
Revenue	FY2025	$3,545 million to $3,585 million	$3,587.3 million	+$2.3 million above high end	Met
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2025	$3.04 to $3.12	$3.13	+$0.01 above high end	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	$893 million to $918 million	—
GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$0.32 to $0.36	—
Non-GAAP EPS	Q1 FY2026	$0.69 to $0.74	—
ARR Growth	Q1 FY2026	13%	—
EBITDA Margin	Q1 FY2026	26.6%	—
Revenue	FY2026	$3,810 million to $3,910 million	—
GAAP EPS	FY2026	$2.04 to $2.23	—
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2026	$3.42 to $3.62	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
AECO	$0.454B	+9.8%
Field Systems	$0.379B	+4.5%
Transportation & Logistics	$0.137B	-34.1%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR)	$2.39 billion
ARR Year-over-Year Growth	6%
ARR Organic Growth	14%
Subscription and Services Revenue	$701.5 million

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	32.3%
Adjusted EBITDA	$324.8 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	33.5%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	74.6%

Management tone

Customer optimization hangover → AI experiments → AI-driven re-acceleration → AI as operating model

Three quarters ago AI was a force-multiplier framing; two quarters ago it was deployed pilots; this quarter it is quantified revenue. Management put a dollar figure on it: "Well over $100M of Trimble's business now powered by or enabled by AI," with specific use cases (MEP estimating component identification) generating "millions of dollars of incremental ARR." This shift from data-volume proof points to revenue contribution is the most important tone change on the print.

Trimble Connect was repositioned from a collaboration tool to data infrastructure. Management said Connect "has transcended its origins as a collaboration and model viewer to become the unifying pillar of our construction platform strategy... This positions Trimble not just as a tool provider, but as the data platform of record for the entire built environment." This is a meaningful elevation of corporate positioning — it reframes the moat from feature breadth to data-corpus depth, defending against pure-play AI competitors that don't have the underlying transactional and design data.

Cross-sell graduated from theoretical to validated. "More than 70% of our ACV bookings came from cross-sell and up-sell motions" — the opportunity is no longer prospective, it's now the dominant ACV motion. Combined with mid-single-digit churn disclosed in Q&A, this gives investors a transparent build to the 13% ARR growth guide that does not depend on macro recovery or new-logo capture.

The 2027 "3-4-30" framework was reaffirmed with notably higher confidence. Phil said: "The trajectory across all three segments remain fully aligned to deliver the Investor Day company targets for 2027." With ARR now $2.39B vs the $3B target and FY26 EBITDA margin guided to 29.8% vs the 30% target, Trimble is one year ahead on margin and tracking inside the ARR build. The revenue bridge ($3.86B FY26 to $4B FY27 = +3.6%) is the only metric still requiring acceleration relative to current trend.

Tone on AI monetization is unusually specific for a software company. Rather than aspirational positioning, management quantified internal AI productivity (20% case deflection in support, 95%+ engineers using AI with double-digit productivity gains) and external monetization mechanics (hybrid recurring + consumption model, leveraging Transporeon's 60% consumption base as proof-of-concept). The level of disclosure suggests management is willing to be measured against AI revenue outcomes, not just AI narrative.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI monetization through deployed agent workflows generating incremental ARRPlatform ecosystem strengthening via network effects and marketplace scaleRecurring revenue expansion (65% of total, up from 40% in 2020)Cross-sell and up-sell motions as primary growth driver (70%+ of AECO bookings)Digital-physical convergence through connected workflows and reality captureOperating leverage delivery with margin expansion while reinvesting for growth

Risks management surfaced:

Freight market remaining muted and constrainedStranded costs from mobility divestiture impacting transportation segment marginsExecution risk on 2027 Investor Day targets ($3B ARR, $4B revenue, 30% EBITDA margins)International expansion scaling for project management productsDependence on customer adoption of agentic AI workflows

Q&A highlights

Jason Salino · KeyBank Capital Markets

Asked about Field Systems ARR growth acceleration to 20% and the drivers behind it, then inquired about guidance deceleration to low-to-mid teens in 2026 and whether this is due to .com or conversion dynamics.

Management attributed the 20% growth to strong machine control guidance-as-a-service performance, geospatial expansion, and software conversions. The 2026 deceleration is due to a lapping effect from the early conversion phase; Field Systems crossed 50% software and services threshold for the year.

Field Systems ARR growth accelerated to 20%Field Systems now over 50% software and services for the year2026 guidance implies mid-teens ARR growth due to lapping effects from conversionsMachine control guidance-as-a-service (Works Plus) driving growth

Kristen Owen · Oppenheimer

Asked how to reconcile Field Systems KPIs (net retention, new logos vs. existing customers) into the mid-teens ARR growth guidance, specifically wanting breakdown of pricing, account accretion, and other moving parts.

Management provided detailed stack-up: mid-single-digit churn leading to strong gross retention, 70% of ACV bookings from existing customers (cross-sell/upsell with higher upsell ratio), low single-digit pricing contribution, creating net retention that supports mid-teens ARR growth. Multiple products per customer and customers with 3+ products support the cross-sell/upsell narrative.

Mid-single-digit churn rate70% of ACV bookings from existing customersHigher upsell-to-cross-sell ratioLow single-digit pricing contribution

Josh Tilton · Wolf Research

Asked about macro assumptions embedded in 2026 guidance, specifically regarding federal spending, freight markets, and construction activity. Also asked about the composition of new customer wins (under 30% of ACV bookings) and why they choose Trimble.

Management expects consistent macro environment with muted federal government business, continued freight market challenges, but pockets of strength in data centers, infrastructure, shipbuilding, and onshore/reshoring. New customers come from geographic expansion (especially outside North America) and product-level penetration (project management added hundreds of new customers). Customers choose Trimble for 48 years of best-in-class solutions, TC1 integration benefits, and unique ability to connect office-field workflows and hardware-software.

U.S. federal government business expected to be mutedFreight market expected to remain challengedGrowth pockets: data centers, infrastructure, shipbuilding, onshoring/reshoringNew logos coming from geographic penetration (especially non-North America) and product-level penetration

Jonathan Ho · William Blair

Asked how the shift to recurring revenue affects convergence between ARR and total revenue growth, and the puts and takes for that convergence. Also asked about agentic AI adoption timing in 2026 and margin implications versus SaaS revenue.

ACO and Transportation & Logistics have converged on ARR and revenue growth; Field Systems remains the outlier with ~20-25% ARR as percent of total revenue due to ongoing hardware/software conversions (creating ~150 bps headwind expected to continue through 2026-2027). For AI, adoption will correlate to 2026 release rollout. Monetization includes consumption model (hybrid recurring + consumption), with AI capabilities embedded in tiered offerings. Unit economics differ due to variable AI costs, but Trimble has advantage with existing consumption muscle at Transporeon (60% consumption, 40% subscription).

ACO and Transportation & Logistics have converged ARR and revenue growthField Systems ARR is ~20-25% of total revenue~150 bps conversion headwind expected in Field Systems through 2026-2027Agentic AI adoption to accelerate with 2026 product releases

Guy Hardwick · Barclays

Asked for specific contribution to ARR/ACV from AI products (agentic AI, autonomous procurement, reality capture), and how much AI has contributed to R&D and G&A leverage observed in recent quarters, with 2026 outlook.

Autonomous procurement in transportation generating double-digit millions of revenue; SketchUp AI launched in Q4 with early monthly subscription adoption. Well over $100M of Trimble's business now powered by or enabled by AI. Reality capture showing strong potential as surveyors' data increasingly moves to cloud for automated feature extraction. Internally, AI contributes to case deflection up to 20% in customer support, 95%+ of engineers using technology with double-digit productivity increases, seller call recording and coaching, and upgraded marketing tech stack. Expects more efficiency unlocking in G&A in coming years while continuing to invest in AI platform development.

Autonomous procurement generating double-digit millions of revenueSketchUp AI launched Q4 as monthly subscriptionOver $100M of Trimble's business powered or enabled by AIReality capture automated feature extraction driving efficiency

Answers to last quarter's watch list

FY26 revenue guide bridge to $4B by FY27 — FY26 revenue guided to $3.81–3.91B (midpoint $3.86B) and ARR growth guided to 13% for both Q1 and full year. The revenue midpoint is consistent with the "mid-to-high single digit" preview but skews to the high end (+7.6% vs FY25). The bridge to $4B by FY27 now requires only ~3.6% growth in the final year, which is achievable but offers no cushion.

Resolved positively

AECO ARR growth holding ≥17% — AECO ARR was $1.48B, up 16% in Q4 per Phil's prepared remarks — a modest decel from the 17% Q3 pace but still a robust compounding rate, with management framing ACV bookings (70%+ from cross-sell/upsell) as a stronger forward indicator. Status: Largely resolved (modest decel vs. prior threshold)

Field Systems Q4 reported growth comp risk — Field Systems Q4 revenue grew 4.5% reported / 4% organic, in mid-single-digit territory despite the larger Q4'24 government-order comp. ARR growth accelerated to 20%, well above the 17% bar. The segment also crossed 50% software-and-services for the year and 26% recurring.

Resolved positively

Non-GAAP operating margin trajectory — Q4 non-GAAP operating margin came in at 32.3%, well above the 28%+ watch threshold and meaningfully above the 26-27% downside scenario. Margin expansion delivered alongside AI investment, suggesting the Q3 framing of "AI investment over margin" was a directional priority rather than a near-term margin sacrifice.

Resolved positively

FY25 free cash flow landing at ~1x non-GAAP net income — FY25 free cash flow of $360.9M at a 10.1% margin landed at approximately 1x non-GAAP net income, consistent with management's framework. FY26 guide reiterates the ~1x net income FCF construct.

Resolved positively

T&L ARR growth trajectory — T&L Q4 ARR was $508M, up 7%, in line with the Q3 7% level. Revenue grew +4% organic / −34% reported (Mobility optics). Management called out double-digit ARR growth among Transporeon customers with >€1M ARR and reframed the segment as a marketplace platform with anchor tenants, but the 7% ARR pace did not accelerate. The freight market is expected to remain muted into 2026.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

ARR growth landing at or above 13% in Q1 — management guided to 13% for Q1 and FY26; a print below 12% would suggest the conversion math is tighter than disclosed and pressure the FY guide

AECO ARR growth trajectory — Q4 printed 16% vs Q3's 17%; watch whether AECO ARR continues to step down toward the company-level 13% or holds the mid-teens pace

Q1 non-GAAP operating margin trajectory — Q4 hit 32.3%; the FY26 EBITDA margin guide of 29.8% implies Q1 will run materially below Q4 (Q1 EBITDA margin guide is 26.6%). Watch whether the seasonal step-down is purely seasonal or reflects accelerated AI investment

AI revenue contribution disclosure cadence — management put a $100M+ marker on AI-enabled business this quarter. Watch whether this metric is updated quarterly with a clear bridge to incremental ARR, or whether disclosure regresses to qualitative

T&L organic growth re-acceleration vs flat trend — watch whether marketplace anchor-tenant additions translate to T&L ARR re-accelerating above the 7% level, or whether 7% becomes a durable run-rate ceiling in a muted freight market

FY27 revenue bridge math — the $3.86B FY26 midpoint requires only ~3.6% growth to hit $4B by FY27, but ARR at $2.39B exiting FY25 needs +13% in FY26 and another +11% in FY27 to reach $3B. Watch whether the FY26 ARR build implies the right exit-rate to clear the FY27 ARR bar

Sources

Trimble Inc. Q4 2025 Press Release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474926000006/a2025q4-8kex991.htm
Trimble Q4 2025 Earnings Call — prepared remarks (Rob Painter, Phil Sawarynski) and Q&A
Trimble Q3 2025 Press Release (prior-quarter guidance baseline), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864749/000086474925000283/a2025q3-8kex991.htm

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