TSCO · Q1 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Tractor Supply

Reported April 21, 2026

30-second summary

Q1 FY2026 comp printed +0.5%, below the FY +1–3% range and a sequential deceleration from Q4 FY2025's +0.3% holding pattern — transactions fell 1.0% while ticket grew 1.6%, the inverse of last quarter's mix. Management reaffirmed every FY2026 metric (revenue +4–6%, EPS $2.13–$2.23, operating margin 9.3–9.6%, net income $1.11–1.17B) and guided Q2 comp to +1–3%, claiming they are "operating in the middle of the full-year range" four weeks into Q2. The hidden problem: Q1 revenue grew only 3.6% YoY, below the FY +4–6% floor, and the CapEx ($675–725M) and buyback ($375–450M) guides that were just reinstated in January have now been dropped from the disclosure entirely.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$0.31

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$3.59B

+3.6% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

36.2%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$-0.11B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

6.5%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026

Metric	Q1 FY2026	YoY	Q4 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$3.59B	+3.6%	$3.90B	-7.9%
EPS	$0.31	—	$0.43	-27.9%
Gross margin	36.2%	—	35.1%	+108bps
Operating margin	6.5%	—	7.6%	-114bps
Free cash flow	$-0.11B	—	—	—

Guidance

Company reaffirms full-year FY2026 guidance despite Q1 comparable store sales miss at 0.5%, betting on sequential improvement and 1–3% comp growth in remaining quarters.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Comparable Store Sales Growth	Q1 FY2026	+1% to +3%	+0.5%	-0.5pts below guidance low end	Missed

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Comparable Store Sales Growth	Q2 FY2026	1% to 3%	-23% to -19% YoY

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital Expenditures (net of sale leaseback)	FY2026	$675 million to $725 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn
Share Repurchases	FY2026	$375 million to $450 million	Withdrawn — no replacement	—	Withdrawn

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: EPS (GAAP) ($2.13 to $2.23), Net Sales Growth (+4% to +6%), Comparable Store Sales Growth (+1% to +3%), Operating Margin Rate (9.3% to 9.6%), Net Income ($1.11 billion to $1.17 billion)

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
Comparable Store Average Transaction Value Growth	1.6%
Comparable Store Average Transaction Count Change	-1.0%
Owned Brands and Exclusive Product Categories	31.8% of sales
Total Store Count	2,641 stores
Inventory Turns (Annualized)	2.92x

Profitability

Q1 FY2026

Segment	Q1 FY2026
SG&A as % of Net Sales	29.7%

Management tone

Q1 FY2025 reassurance → Q2 FY2025 step-change conviction → Q3 FY2025 narrowed range and 2026 pivot → Q4 FY2025 "wide range of demand outcomes" → Q1 FY2026 "continued pressure for some time."

The pet-category recovery timeline has been pushed out by another quarter without being formally re-guided. Three quarters ago pet weakness was framed as transitory and expected to inflect in H2 2025; last quarter it was deflected with the "we don't need pet to over-deliver" framing; this quarter management explicitly stated, "our plan and forecast assumes that we'll have continued pressure for some time in that category. And then we'll kind of see gradual improvement as those initiatives take hold." That is the first call where management has said in plain language that pet weakness extends into H2 FY2026 and beyond. The structural-decline framing on dog ownership in the Guggenheim exchange confirms this is no longer being positioned as cyclical.

New customer acquisition has been narrowed to a single source — new stores. Across Q2 and Q3 FY2025, management framed new customer growth as a multi-lever story: marketing, Neighbors Club, store-format work. This quarter: "our new customer growth is really right now predominantly relying on new stores... in our existing stores right now, it's mostly active customers that we're retaining." When new-customer acquisition collapses to the unit-expansion vector alone, the comp engine becomes a same-customer-spend story — which is exactly where the -1.0% transaction print lands.

Consumer framing moved from "discerning" to "needs and small indulgences" with trip consolidation. Q3 FY2025 introduced "discerning," Q4 FY2025 widened it to "wide range of demand outcomes," and this quarter went further: "customers are using these dollars more cautiously. A significant portion is going towards essentials, savings and debt reduction, rather than discretionary spending." This is the most defensive consumer framing TSCO has used in the four quarters of coverage — and it now extends explicitly to how tax refunds are being deployed, which is a category the company historically pointed to as a discretionary tailwind.

Tariff framing has not moved. "Ongoing pressure from tariffs, cost inflation and freight which we continue to actively manage" — essentially identical to Q3 and Q4 FY2025 language. The "halfway through" mile-marker has been stable for three quarters running, which either means the second half of tariff flow-through is still ahead or the framing is no longer being updated.

Confidence language is being deployed more heavily as the data weakens. "We remain confident" and "we continue to target" appear in the FY reaffirmation despite Q1 missing the comp floor and revenue running below the FY guide range. This is the pattern Q4 FY2025 established — wide forward ranges paired with high-conviction language — and it has hardened this quarter into the operating posture.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Pet category structural headwinds requiring multi-year turnaroundConsumer spending constrained to needs-based purchases and debt reductionSequential improvement expected Q2 onwards driven by seasonal rampNew store productivity and new format (Fusion) driving comp growthExecution challenges in companion animal offsetting strength in other categoriesDigital business momentum exceeding expectations with double-digit growth

Risks management surfaced:

Continued companion animal category pressure and structural market decline in dog ownershipConsumer macro softness with reduced shopping frequency and trip consolidationOngoing tariff cost pressures and freight inflation headwindsNew customer acquisition remaining softer, concentrated in new stores onlyExecution risk on pet initiatives to achieve gradual improvement

Q&A highlights

Simon Gutmann · Morgan Stanley

What level of comp growth is management targeting for Companion Animal? Is it within this year's comp range, long-term range, or above? How far off are current trends? What improvements have been seen in Q2?

Management expects Companion Animal to remain under modest pressure with flat to slight negative comps throughout 2024, embedded in overall guidance of 1-3%. They anticipate improvements as strategic initiatives take hold later in Q2 and Q3. Four of five merchandise categories were positive in Q1, with strength in seasonal business, live goods, big ticket categories, and digital.

Companion Animal expected flat to slight negative comps for full year 2024Overall company guidance remains 1-3% comp range100 basis points pressure on Companion Animal in Q1Four of five merchandise categories positive in Q1

Stephen Forbes · Guggenheim

How have rural migration, household formation, and housing turnover impacted pet outlook? What wallet share dynamics exist among members with dogs/cats? How long does localization take to onboard new customers and what drives conviction for recovery?

Post-COVID shows strong urban exodus to suburban and ex-urban areas; rural stores show stronger comps. Pet populations declining on dogs, increasing modestly on cats. Management gaining mid-to-high single digit basis points of share in both dog and cat food individually, but mix effects result in flat overall food share. Actions underway are intended to restore 20 basis point share gains seen in 2022-2023.

Dog food share up mid-to-high single digit basis points in Q1Cat food share up mid-to-high single digit basis points in Q1Overall food share flat due to mix (higher cat penetration, lower share in cat category)Historical share gains of ~20 basis points in 2022-2023

Chuck Grom · Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Can you zoom in on Neighbors Club, garden centers, and direct mile opportunities? What are the margin implications of expanding into CAT (companion animal)?

Neighbors Club growing at same pace as prior quarters with strong retention and spend per member. Garden centers performing well with over 1,000 stores combining garden centers and live goods. Final Mile program exceeding expectations with double-digit delivery volume growth, lowering cost per delivery. 176 new final mile hubs planned this year. Margin structures between CAT and dog comparable, pricing and mix not a concern.

Over 1,000 garden centers and live goods tents combinedFinal Mile delivery volume up double digits in Q1200 final mile hubs opened last year, 176 planned this yearFinal Mile hubs trending ahead of utilization expectations

Scott Ciccarelli · Truist

Can contractor transactions turn positive if Companion Animal stays negative given PET is 25% of sales and high frequency? Was overall Q1 above or below company average?

Management clarifies that large animal feed is the primary traffic driver, not Companion Animal. Companion Animal comprises 27-28% of Q1 sales but only 21% of Q2 due to seasonal mix. Management expects overall positive comps in future quarters even with continued Companion Animal weakness, as customer is engaged and other category drivers remain strong.

Large animal feed is primary traffic driver, not Companion AnimalCompanion Animal 27-28% of Q1 sales vs 21% of Q2Majority of categories and markets performing wellOverall positive comp expected despite Companion Animal headwinds

Seth Sigmund · Barclays

Inflation was 150 basis points in Q1, down from Q4. Did you lower prices or is this a mix dynamic? What is your experience with elasticity? What is your view on commodity-related inflation versus tariff-related inflation?

Management maintains EDLP strategy and competitive positioning. 150 bps inflation in Q1 reflects both price and cost mix, not price reductions. Currently monitoring shift from tariff-related pressures to potential fuel, oil, and other input cost pressures. Expect to continue operating within 1-2% inflation guidance. No change in pricing strategy or expectations.

Inflation guidance 1-2% expected to continueNo price reductions taken in Q1EDLP remains strategy north starShift from tariff pressures to fuel/oil/input cost monitoring

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q1 FY2026 comp vs the +2% midpoint. Resolved negatively. Q1 comp printed +0.5%, below the +1% floor and 150bps below the midpoint. Transactions turned negative (-1.0%); ticket carried the print at +1.6%. The "nice start" framing from January did not survive the quarter. Status: Resolved negatively

Whether the FY2026 operating-margin guide gets revised mid-year. Continue monitoring. The 9.3–9.6% range was reaffirmed despite Q1 operating margin printing 6.5% and revenue growing 3.6% YoY (below the FY +4–6% floor). The math is now harder, but management held the line. Status: Continue monitoring

Q1 FY2026 gross margin YoY vs Q1 FY2025. Not resolved. Q1 GM at 36.22% was characterized as "in line with expectations" with ongoing tariff/freight pressure, but the explicit YoY GM comparison was not disclosed in the press release. The tariff "halfway through" framing has not moved. Status: Not resolved

Direct sales weekly run-rate trajectory. Continue monitoring. Management referenced 20%+ digital growth in Q&A, with Final Mile delivery volume up double digits and 176 new hubs planned, but did not disclose the explicit direct-sales weekly run-rate or rep-count progression toward the 100-rep commitment from the Q4 FY2025 call. Status: Continue monitoring

Pet-category comp disclosure. Resolved negatively. Management disclosed in Q&A that Companion Animal contributed ~100bps of comp pressure in Q1 and is expected flat-to-slightly-negative for FY2026 — the first explicit pet-category framing in four quarters. The disclosure came, but the answer is worse than the deflection. Status: Resolved negatively

H2 SG&A deleverage from new DC opening. Continue monitoring. The new DC opening cost ($10M, primarily H2) was implicitly maintained in the hedging language: "we expect approximately $10 million of incremental expense this year, primarily in the second half." No update on timing. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 FY2026 comp landing within +1% to +3%. Management explicitly said they are "operating in the middle of the range" four weeks in. A Q2 print below 1% breaks the FY +1–3% comp guide for a second consecutive quarter; above 2% validates the sequential-improvement claim.

Whether CapEx and buyback guidance get reinstated with Q2 disclosure. Both were withdrawn this quarter without explanation. Their reappearance — or continued absence — is the cleanest read on whether the working-capital story is normalizing or compounding. The buyback was last guided at $375–450M; the CapEx at $675–725M.

Comp transactions inflecting back to positive. The -1.0% Q1 transaction print is the first negative traffic number in the four quarters of coverage. Whether Q2 returns to positive traffic — even slightly — separates a one-quarter consumer-caution event from a structural deterioration in store visits.

Full-year revenue growth vs the +4–6% floor. Q1 grew 3.6% YoY. To clear the FY +4% floor, Q2–Q4 collectively need to grow ~4.1%+ YoY. Watch whether Q2 closes the gap (sustaining ~4–4.5% YoY) or widens it.

Pet-category quarterly disclosure cadence. Management broke the deflection pattern in Q&A this quarter by quantifying pet's 100bps Q1 drag. Watch whether this becomes a recurring disclosure or reverts to silence — the former is a credibility signal, the latter would confirm the structural-decline framing is unwelcome news to the bull case.

The Q3 FY2026 print specifically for new-DC SG&A flow-through. Management has now flagged the $10M incremental expense twice with H2 weighting. Q3 is the cleanest test of whether the operating margin floor of 9.3% holds when the cost actually lands.

Sources

Tractor Supply Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release (SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000020/ex991-q12026earningsrelease.htm
Tractor Supply Q4 FY2025 Earnings Release (prior-quarter guidance baseline): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000005/ex991-q42025earningsrelease.htm

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