tapebrief
TSLA · Q4 2025

TSLA · Q1 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Tesla

Reported April 22, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Revenue of $22.39B (+16% YoY, -10.2% QoQ) edged consensus by 0.2% on 358,023 deliveries, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.36 estimate by 13.9% — but operating margin fell to 4.2%, below the 5.7% Q4 floor flagged in last quarter's watch list, and FCF of $1.44B is barely holding as the CapEx ramp begins. The real signal: a ~$3B Tesla research fab anchoring a multi-year TeraFab build with Intel (14A) and SpaceX as partners, Optimus volume production pushed from a Q1 Gen 3 unveil to "first-generation production lines being installed," and energy revenue down 12% YoY as storage deployments collapsed from 14.2 GWh to 8.8 GWh.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$0.41

+13.9% vs est.

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$22.39B

+16.0% YoY

+0.2% vs est.

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

21.1%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$1.44B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

4.2%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$22.39B+16.0%$24.90B-10.1%
EPS$0.41—$0.50-18.0%
Gross margin21.1%—20.1%+100bps
Operating margin4.2%—5.7%-150bps
Free cash flow$1.44B—$1.42B+1.7%

Guidance

No quantitative guidance provided in either prior or current quarter; comparison limited to qualitative reaffirmations on product timelines.

No quantitative guidance provided in either prior or current quarter; comparison limited to qualitative reaffirmations on product timelines.

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026YoY
Automotive sales$15.473B+19.8%
Energy generation and storage$2.408B-11.9%
Services and other$3.745B+41.9%
Automotive regulatory credits$0.38B-36.1%
Automotive leasing$0.381B-14.8%

Platform metrics

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Total vehicle deliveries358,023 units
Model 3/Y deliveries341,893 units
Active FSD Subscriptions1.28 million
Storage deployed8.8 GWh
Supercharger stations8,463
Supercharger connectors79,918

Profitability

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Adjusted EBITDA margin16.4%
Automotive gross margin (excl. regulatory credits)19.2%

Management tone

Q1 2025 robotaxi countdown → Q2 2025 "rough quarters" warning → Q3 2025 qualitative-only FY frame → Q4 2025 $20B+ CapEx capacity-build narrative → Q1 2026 ~$3B research fab and TeraFab as the central capital story.

Three quarters ago the forward narrative was a robotaxi inflection by end of FY2026; two quarters ago it was a multi-line capacity build; last quarter the $20B+ CapEx anchor was the centerpiece; this quarter the centerpiece is a ~$3B Tesla research fab and a SpaceX-operated TeraFab phase, with Intel as a 14A manufacturing partner. Elon in Q&A: "Long-term scaling, AI satellites, would be impossible for existing industry to supply." The shift is from capacity-as-output to vertical-integration-as-prerequisite — Tesla is now committing to owning silicon because management has concluded the merchant chip industry cannot keep pace with its own AI demand curve. That is a materially larger and longer capital commitment than last quarter's $20B+ frame implied.

Two quarters ago Optimus was a Gen 3 unveil committed for Q1 2026; last quarter the framing was Gen 3 unveil with "major upgrades from version 2.5"; this quarter the unveil did not happen and the language collapsed to "first-generation production lines being installed in anticipation of volume production." Pierre (New Street) drew out the current architecture in Q&A: Optimus has "substantial local intelligence" and "can operate several hours without management oversight." But the absence of a Gen 3 hardware unveil, a unit-cost figure, or a production-rate target on this print confirms the 2026 ramp is still speculative — exactly the negative signal last quarter's watch list flagged.

Three quarters ago FSD adoption was framed via two abstract percentage deltas; two quarters ago paid attach rate was ~12%; last quarter active subscriptions reached 1.1M as the first absolute disclosure; this quarter 1.28M subscriptions on ~180K quarterly net adds with declining churn. Pierre's question — pointing out that 180K new paying users roughly matches North American quarterly deliveries — and Elon's answer that retention is improving as the product improves, suggests North American FSD penetration is approaching saturation. The growth vector here is shifting from new adoption to ARPU and international expansion.

Colin (Wells Fargo) drew out the most concrete operational disclosure: "Zero incidents/accidents to date" on robotaxi, with current bottlenecks being "convenience issues" — cars getting "paranoid," stuck at construction zones or non-changing lights — rather than safety. Direct photon counting cameras have been deployed for months; the NHTSA filing referenced older vehicles. The shift in framing from safety risk to software-edge-case engineering is meaningful, but the metro footprint and driverless mile counts that last quarter's watch list flagged remain undisclosed on the print.

Risks management surfaced:

Material differences between predictions and actual resultsUncertainties referenced in SEC filings

Q&A highlights

Will Stein · Truist

Requested details on TeraFab project structure including responsibility allocation for funding, design, building, operation, and production across various parties involved.

Tesla is building a ~$3 billion research fab on Giga Texas capable of a few thousand wafers per month for testing new chip technologies and production processes. SpaceX will handle the initial scaled-up TeraFab phase. Intel will partner on core manufacturing technologies using Intel's 14A process. Tesla plans to house memory, logic, mask creation, and packaging in one facility for rapid iteration.

Tesla research fab: ~$3 billion initiativeCapacity: few thousand wafers per monthSpaceX handling initial scaled TeraFab phaseIntel partnership using 14A process

Pierre · New Street

Asked about FSD adoption trends showing 180K new paying users vs ~100K cars sold in North America, questioning if most hardware-capable owners already subscribe. Also asked about Optimus intelligence architecture and whether inference happens on-device or in data centers.

FSD adoption is accelerating with improving retention; customers are driving longer as product improves. Optimus will have substantial local intelligence to function offline (like vehicles don't need connectivity to drive). Grok AI provides orchestration and voice capabilities; Optimus requires manager-level interaction, functioning for several hours without oversight.

180K new FSD paying users in quarterSubscriber churn declining as product improvesOptimus has local intelligence enabling offline operationGrok provides orchestration and low-latency voice AI

Dan · Barclays

Asked whether TeraFab is motivated by seeking better chip economics vs suppliers and timeline to yield parity; whether TeraFab is a leverage mechanism.

TeraFab is not about gaining leverage over suppliers but addressing supply constraints as industry growth outpaces capacity. Tesla has research ideas for radically better AI chips. Long-term scaling (AI satellites) would be impossible for existing industry to supply. Emphasis on supply necessity rather than cost optimization.

TeraFab driven by supply necessity, not leverageLong-shot research for radical AI chip improvementsAI satellite production would require Tesla's own fab capabilityExisting industry cannot keep pace with Tesla's future demand

Colin · Wells Fargo

Asked what safety metrics drive RoboTaxi expansion confidence (miles per intervention, accidents, fatalities) and current standing. Also asked about camera direct photon counting breakthrough for sun glare and deployment status per NHTSA filing.

Tracks all key safety metrics using large QA fleet and simulation. Actual constraints are convenience issues (car gets 'paranoid', gets stuck), not safety. Examples include infinite loops at construction, getting stuck at non-changing lights. Direct photon counting cameras deployed months ago; NHTSA filing refers to older vehicles. Recent software prevents FSD availability if camera visibility degraded.

Large QA fleet spread across US for metric trackingPrimary issues are convenience/paranoia, not safetyZero incidents/accidents to dateDirect photon counting cameras already deployed

Mark · Goldman Sachs

Asked about evolution of new vehicle models strategy, referencing Elon's post on family vehicle and past compact vehicle discussion. Also asked how Tesla will resolve battery constraint and reliance on internal LFP/4680 vs supplier sourcing.

CyberCab is the primary compact vehicle focus; most future production will be CyberCab since 90% of miles driven are one-to-two person. Future lineup will be mostly autonomous vehicles. New Roadster may be debuted in ~one month. Battery constraint is pack capacity, not cells; being resolved through Berlin 4680 ramp, Reno retooling, and China LFP expansion.

90% of miles driven are one-to-two person (supporting CyberCab focus)Future lineup almost entirely autonomousNew Roadster demo expected in ~1 monthBerlin launching Model Y with 4680 batteries

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q1 FY2026 deliveries vs. Q1 FY2025 — 358,023 deliveries with automotive sales +19.8% YoY against a clean pre-pull-forward comp. The underlying demand read is firmer than the post-Q4 unwind narrative implied; Model 3/Y at 341,893 of the total.
Resolved positively
Whether $20B+ FY2026 CapEx holds or drifts higher — The press release did not refresh the $20B+ figure, but the ~$3B research fab anchor disclosed in Q&A — plus the SpaceX-handled TeraFab phase and Intel 14A partnership — confirms the "infrastructure plays" Vaibhav excluded last quarter are now formalizing. The real FY2026 capital commitment, layered across Tesla and partner balance sheets, is materially higher than $20B.
Resolved negatively
Operating margin trajectory below the Q4 5.7% floor — Operating margin printed 4.2%, well below the 5.7% Q4 floor and below FY2025's 4.6% full-year figure. The through-margin print last quarter's watch list anticipated has arrived. Auto gross margin ex-credits at 19.2% is firmer, but fixed-cost absorption on lower volume plus the CapEx ramp dominated.
Resolved negatively
Optimus Gen 3 unveil in Q1 — Did not happen. The framing softened from "Gen 3 unveil with major upgrades from version 2.5" to "first-generation production lines being installed." No cost/unit, no production-rate figure, no hardware reveal. The negative signal last quarter's watch list flagged is confirmed.
Resolved negatively
Robotaxi metro footprint and any update on driverless mile counts — No updated metro count or driverless mile count on the print. Wells Fargo Q&A drew out qualitative color (zero incidents, paranoia as constraint) but no quantitative footprint disclosure.
Continue monitoring
Energy storage GWh deployments holding above 14 GWh/quarter — 8.8 GWh deployed, decisively below the 14 GWh threshold and even below the prior 12 GWh floor. Energy revenue -11.9% YoY. The cleanest growth story in the business has broken. Megapack 3 ramp at Houston is "on track for later this year" but did not contribute.
Resolved negatively
Whether tariff cost disclosure trajectory continues — Tariff cost figures were not disclosed on this print. The Q4 trajectory of >$500M (up from >$400M in Q3) was not extended forward.
Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q2 FY2026 operating margin recovery from the 4.2% Q1 floor — if margin stays below 4.2% with auto gross margin ex-credits already at 19.2%, the CapEx-ramp and fixed-cost dilution story dominates the rest of the year

Energy storage GWh deployments recovering toward the 12+ GWh range — Q1's 8.8 GWh is the worst print in over a year; sustained sub-10 GWh in Q2 would mark the segment growth narrative as broken, not paused

Any quantification of TeraFab capital commitment beyond the ~$3B research fab — the SpaceX/Intel partnership economics, Tesla's share of the scaled TeraFab phase, and timeline to yield parity are now the largest forward-capital question on the model

Optimus production-rate or unit-cost disclosure — absence of any concrete production figure or cost/unit on the Q2 print would confirm 2026 volume production is purely aspirational

FSD subscription growth outside North America — with NA approaching saturation per Pierre's exchange, international FSD expansion and ARPU lift become the next growth vector; absence of a clear international run-rate or pricing disclosure would be a negative signal

Robotaxi metro footprint and driverless mile count — third straight quarter without these metrics would itself be the signal; the Q3 FY2025 commitment to 8–10 metros and driverless operation has now gone two quarters unaddressed

Sources

  1. Tesla Q1 FY2026 press release / 8-K exhibit 99.1 (Apr 22, 2026) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026026551/exhibit991.htm
  2. Tesla Q1 FY2026 earnings call Q&A (Apr 22, 2026) — TeraFab ~$3B research fab disclosure (Stein/Truist), 1.28M FSD subscriptions and ~180K net adds (Pierre/New Street), TeraFab supply-necessity framing (Dan/Barclays), robotaxi zero-incidents and photon-counting camera deployment (Colin/Wells Fargo), Cybercab compact-vehicle prioritization and battery constraint (Mark/Goldman Sachs)
  3. Tesla Q4 FY2025 brief (prior quarter context — $20B+ FY2026 CapEx anchor, Optimus Gen 3 Q1 unveil commitment, 14.2 GWh energy storage baseline, 5.7% operating margin floor)
  4. Tesla Q3 FY2025 brief (prior quarter context — IRA pull-forward thesis, 12 GWh storage threshold)

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