Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

TSN · Q4 2025 Earnings

Tyson Foods

Reported November 10, 2025

30-second summary

Tyson closed FY25 with Q4 revenue of $13.86B (+2.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.15, with Chicken adjusted operating margin stepping up to 10.4% (well above the 8% bar) and Prepared Foods holding 7.4%. The FY26 guide is the real story: Beef adjusted operating loss is now expected at $(600)M–$(400)M (deeper midpoint than the FY25 $(475)M–$(375)M range), Prepared Foods AOI guided to $950M–$1,050M (midpoint roughly flat to FY25), and FCF guided $0.8–1.3B (low end below FY25 actual of $1.177B). Management's message: FY25 execution worked, but the cattle cycle isn't bottoming yet and FY26 will be a wait year on Beef.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.15

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$13.86B

+2.2% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

5.2%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

1.1%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$13.86B	+2.2%	$13.88B	-0.2%
EPS	$1.15	—	$0.91	+26.4%
Gross margin	5.2%	—	8.2%	-300bps
Operating margin	1.1%	—	1.9%	-80bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue growth	FY 2025	2% to 3%	2.1%	+0.1pts above guide midpoint	Beat
Adjusted Operating Income	FY 2025	$2.1 billion to $2.3 billion	—	—	Met
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	$1.0 billion to $1.3 billion	$1.177 billion	in-line (within range)	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue growth	FY 2026	2% to 4%	—
Adjusted Operating Income - Chicken	FY 2026	$1,250 million to $1,500 million	—
Adjusted Operating Income - Prepared Foods	FY 2026	$950 million to $1,050 million	—
Adjusted Operating Income - Beef	FY 2026	$(600) million to $(400) million	—
Adjusted Operating Income - Pork	FY 2026	$150 million to $250 million	—
Free Cash Flow	FY 2026	$0.8 billion to $1.3 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	at or below $1.0 billion	$700 million to $1.0 billion	narrowed range, implying lower expected capex	Raised
Net Interest Expense	FY 2025	approximately $375 million	approximately $390 million (FY2026 guide)	+$15M higher for FY2026	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted Effective Tax Rate (approximately 25%)

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Beef	$5.489B	+4.3%
Pork	$1.414B	-1.7%
Chicken	$4.411B	+3.8%
Prepared Foods	$2.546B	+3.0%
International/Other	$0.584B	-4.1%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Chicken Volume Growth	3.7%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Beef Adjusted Operating Margin	-1.6%
Chicken Adjusted Operating Margin	10.4%
Prepared Foods Adjusted Operating Margin	7.4%
Total Company Adjusted Operating Margin	4.3%
Adjusted EBITDA	$3.632 billion
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA	2.1x

Management tone

Q1 anchor: chicken recovery → Q3 anchor: assertive momentum claims → Q4 anchor: defensive granularity with multi-year framing.

The tone this quarter is materially more defensive than Q3, when management was leaning into momentum claims across Chicken and Prepared Foods and dating the herd rebuild benefit to 2028. This quarter the language is hedged ("we are somewhat insulated in our business, but we're not immune to commodity markets") and forward-claiming language has been replaced with multi-year structural caveats. The shift is most visible in Beef: Q3 framed cattle tightness as something operational levers could partially offset, while Q4's $(600)M–$(400)M loss guide implies management has stopped trying to outrun the cycle and is asking shareholders to accept a deeper trough.

Chicken's framing has evolved from recovery to identity. Q3 was "we are back in the chicken business and executing at a very high level… we have momentum." This quarter, King attributed FY25 chicken results to "setting the table over the past three years" and stated "we're now starting to see the fruit of our labor," with the confidence in 2026 grounded in execution across yield, capacity utilization, labor productivity and live operations. The signal: Chicken is no longer being underwritten as a recovery story with cyclical upside but as a structurally repositioned business — and the 10.4% Q4 margin plus FY26 AOI midpoint of $1,375M supports the framing.

Prepared Foods has quietly downshifted from Q3's "best year ever" framing to a margin-expansion-over-time story. Q3's 9.8% Q4 margin print was a clear high-water mark; Q4 came in at 7.4% and FY26 AOI guidance midpoint ($1,000M) is only modestly above FY25 actual ($913M). Management's own words this quarter — "our conviction in the multi-year opportunity to expand profitability in prepared foods remains strong… as we see those raw materials stabilize" — are notably more conditional than Q3's record-setting language. The reset is not catastrophic, but it is a reset.

Beef has shifted from "temporarily challenged" to "sustained loss-making." Q3 dated the herd rebuild benefit to 2028; Q4 introduces a new headwind (New World Screw Worm, Mexico border closure cutting feeder cattle inflows 8.4% in Q4) and a deeper FY26 loss band. Management's prepared-remarks language — "beef segment remains our only soft spot" combined with "expected cattle supplies to remain tight as we move into 2026" — is a candid acknowledgment that the $(500)M FY26 midpoint loss is structural, not transient.

Consumer commentary turned cautious for the first time in the coverage arc. Prior quarters described demand as durable; this quarter management flags "continued divergence in incomes with higher incomes continuing to drive growth and others reallocating some of their non-food dollars to food categories" — and the FCF guide widening to a $0.8B low end (vs $1.177B FY25 actual) suggests management wants room for working-capital pressure if the consumer softens further.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Operational excellence and cost discipline as sustainable competitive moatValue-added product mix as margin and pricing protection mechanismChicken as primary beneficiary of beef supply constraints and consumer affordability preferencesRaw material cost normalization unlocking prepared foods margin recoveryBrand penetration and innovation driving market share gains despite consumer cautionHerd rebuild cycle requiring multi-year beef patience with no near-term relief

Risks management surfaced:

Heifer retention extending beef supply tightness and margin pressure into 2026-2027New World Screw Worm and Mexico border closure reducing feeder cattle inflows by 8.4% volume in Q4Commodity chicken price volatility despite insulation from value-added strategyConsumer spending bifurcation and SNAP benefit disruption from government shutdownWorking capital inflation from sustained commodity cost pressure

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Chicken Q4 adj. operating margin ≥8% — Cleared the bar decisively at 10.4%, well above the 8% threshold and above Q3's 8.2%. Chicken volume growth of 3.7% and Total Company adj. operating margin of 4.3% support the framing that Chicken is structurally repositioned.

Resolved positively

Beef FY25 loss within $(475)M–$(375)M range — FY25 Beef adj. operating loss came in at $(426)M, within the guided range and toward the favorable end. Q4 Beef adj. loss was $(94)M. More important: FY26 guide widens to $(600)M–$(400)M, signaling the cycle bottom isn't in. Status: Resolved negatively (on forward setup, not on FY25 result)

Prepared Foods sustaining 9%+ adj. operating margin into Q4 — Mixed. FY25 full-year adj. operating margin was 9.2%, so the 9%+ thesis held at the annual level. Q4 specifically came in at 7.4%, down from Q3's 9.8% peak, on a raw material cost recovery lag ($135M in Q4 commodity pressure, $344M for the year). FY26 AOI guide midpoint of $1,000M implies margins closer to the 8–9% range, not 9%+. Status: Resolved with caveat

Hard data on heifer retention — The company didn't publish specific feeder cattle placement or heifer-vs-steer mix data; instead it introduced a new headwind (New World Screw Worm, Mexico border closure reducing Q4 feeder cattle inflows by 8.4%) and reaffirmed cattle supplies will remain tight through 2026. Management noted regional disparity — no meaningful retention out West or South, some retention in the upper Midwest. The 2028 herd-rebuild waypoint set in Q3 looks less actionable now.

Continue monitoring

Share repurchase cadence acceleration — Q4 share repurchases were $154M (per transcript); FY25 repurchases totaled $196M across 3.5M shares. Net leverage held flat at 2.1x. The Q4 step-up in pace (a meaningful share of the full-year total in a single quarter) is consistent with management's view that "at current Tyson stock valuations… share repurchases represent an attractive opportunity.".

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Chicken adj. operating margin sustains above 9% in Q1 FY26 — Q4's 10.4% needs to prove repeatable to validate the $1,250M–$1,500M FY26 AOI guide midpoint. A drop back to 8% would signal Q4 benefited from peak commodity chicken pricing rather than structural execution.

Beef Q1 FY26 loss trajectory against the $(600)M–$(400)M FY guide. A Q1 loss worse than $(150)M would imply the deeper midpoint is the realistic case and could pressure FY26 total AOI toward the low end of $2.1B.

Whether Prepared Foods recovers above 8% adj. operating margin in Q1 FY26 — the 7.4% Q4 print and modest FY26 AOI step-up suggest raw material pressure persists. A second sub-8% quarter would invalidate the multi-year margin-expansion thesis.

FCF cadence against the widened $0.8–1.3B FY26 range — Q1 working capital build would confirm whether the lower bound reflects defensive guide-setting or actual cash conversion pressure from sustained commodity inflation.

Whether the Q4 buyback pace ($154M) carries into Q1 FY26. With net leverage at 2.1x and CapEx guide narrowed to $700M–$1.0B (lower midpoint than FY25), incremental capital should remain available for repurchases — a sharp slowdown would suggest management is preserving cash for Beef downside.

Updates on New World Screw Worm and Mexico border status — the 8.4% Q4 feeder cattle inflow reduction is a new and specific headwind; resolution or escalation will shape FY26 Beef loss within the $(600)M–$(400)M band.

Sources

Tyson Foods Q4 FY2025 press release, SEC filing (Exhibit 99.1), November 10, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100493/000010049325000094/tsn2025q4exh-991.htm
Tyson Foods Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript, November 10, 2025
Tyson Foods Q3 FY2025 brief (Tapebrief, August 4, 2025) — used for prior-guidance comparisons and watch-list resolution

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