TTD · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Trade Desk (The)

Reported February 25, 2026

30-second summary

Trade Desk delivered Q4 revenue of $847M (+14.3% YoY), $7M above the $840M floor, with adjusted EBITDA of $400M (+$25M / +6.7% above the ~$375M guide) and adjusted EBITDA margin landing at 47% — above the implied 44.6% in the prior guide. The press release does not disclose Q4 ex-political growth, so the 14.3% headline cannot be cleanly compared with management's prior ~18.5% ex-political framing; decomposition of underlying growth is the central question into the call. The Q1 FY2026 guide of "at least $678M" with ~$195M adjusted EBITDA implies ~28.8% EBITDA margin — a 1,820bps sequential margin reset that management did not explicitly call out.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.59

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.85B

+14.3% YoY

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

30.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.85B	+14.3%	$0.74B	+14.6%
EPS	$0.59	—	$0.45	+31.1%
Operating margin	30.3%	—	21.8%	+850bps

Guidance

Q4 FY2025 beat Adjusted EBITDA guidance by ~$28M while revenue came in slightly above the $840M floor; YoY growth of 14.3% fell 4.2pts short of the adjusted (ex-political) 18.5% guide, and Q1 FY2026 guidance signals a seasonal dip in both revenue and margin.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2025	at least $840 million	$847 million	+$7 million above guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 FY2025	approximately $375 million	$403 million	+$28 million above guide	Beat
Revenue YoY growth (excluding political spend)	Q4 FY2025	approximately 18.5% YoY	14.3% YoY	-4.2pts below guidance	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2026	at least $678 million	—
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 FY2026	approximately $195 million	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Gross Spend	$13.4 billion
Customer Retention	>95%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	47%
Operating Margin	30.3%
Net Income Margin	22%
Operating Cash Flow	$992.7 million

Management tone

Narrative arc: Q2 "structural shift in progress" → Q3 "structural inevitability confirmed" → Q4 "differentiate beyond CTV, defend objectivity."

No transcript was available for this brief; tone analysis is therefore limited to the press release's qualitative statements and what they imply against the Q2 and Q3 cadences.

From "capturing the open internet" to "objective platform" as the defining frame. Q2 positioned Trade Desk as the inevitable beneficiary of walled-garden conflicts of interest; Q3 escalated to Kokai as a category-redefining moat with platform-wide proof points (26% better CPA, 58% better cost per unique reach). The Q4 release pivots to "our role as an objective platform becomes even more important" — a defensive reframing rather than an offensive one. The shift from "we will take share because the open internet is inevitable" to "we are objective" reads as posture-hardening in response to a more competitive backdrop (Amazon DSP, Prime Video expansion, walled-garden CTV inventory growth), not as a confidence escalation.

Innovation surface broadens beyond Kokai. Q3 made Kokai the singular product narrative; the Q4 release lists "continued innovation across Kokai, retail data, and the supply chain" as the 2026 growth axes. Retail data is a new emphasis at this prominence, and the supply-chain language (OpenPath, OpenAds, PubDesk, DealDesk) is now positioned alongside Kokai rather than under it. This is consistent with a platform that is widening its competitive surface, but it also dilutes the "Kokai is the proof point" simplicity of Q3.

2026 framing stays qualitative. Last quarter's call flagged 2026 positioning twice ("uniquely positioned," "well positioned to grow our share of the advertising TAM"). The Q4 release echoes the same — "well positioned to capture greater share of the global advertising market in 2026 and beyond" — but provides no quantified FY2026 revenue or margin guide. Given the Q1 margin reset implied by the guide, the absence of a FY2026 frame is conspicuous.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Did Q4 revenue clear the $840M floor with ex-political growth at or above 18.5%? Revenue cleared the floor by $7M (+0.8%); headline YoY growth came in at 14.3%. The press release does not disclose an explicit Q4 ex-political figure, so whether management's ~18.5% ex-political framing was met is indeterminate from the release alone. Status: Partially resolved — awaiting call decomposition

Did Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin land at the implied 44.6%? It exceeded it — 47% vs. ~44.6% implied at the guide, a 240bps beat. Margin expansion is the clean positive of this print. Whether it sustains is now the question, given the Q1 guide implies ~28.8%. Status: Resolved positively

Initial 2026 revenue and margin framing. Management reiterated qualitative 2026 positioning ("well positioned to capture greater share") but issued no FY2026 revenue or EBITDA guide in the press release. The absence is itself a signal — the company guides FY when willing to commit. Status: Resolved negatively

Kokai final adoption step. The press release does not disclose an updated Kokai adoption percentage. The qualitative 2026 statement bundles Kokai with retail data and supply chain as innovation axes rather than calling out completed adoption. Status: Continue monitoring

International revenue mix disclosure. No international mix or growth rate disclosed in the press release. Status: Continue monitoring

JBP conversion of the $80 pipeline. No JBP count or conversion figure disclosed in the press release. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

What was Q4 ex-political growth, and what is the implied Q1 ex-political growth? The 14.3% headline Q4 YoY needs to be decomposed on the call. If ex-political Q4 came in at 16-17% (vs. Q3's ~22%), the deceleration is meaningful but not a regime change. If it came in at 14-15%, the Q3 print should be reframed as a wallet-share pull-forward.

Is the Q1 FY2026 implied EBITDA margin of ~28.8% purely seasonal, or does it include structural cost re-base (e.g. CTV upfront commitments, S&M investment, AI infra)? A ~1,820bps sequential step-down on a guide is large enough to need an explicit walk on the call.

Will management issue any quantified FY2026 framing on the call? The press release stayed qualitative; analyst pressure for at least directional FY2026 revenue and margin commentary is near-certain.

Kokai final adoption status. Q3 was ~85% default experience; Q2 had committed to 100% by year-end. Watch whether the Q4 call confirms completion or moves the goalposts.

Updated JBP count and international mix. Both were quantified in Q3 (180 live JBPs / ~50% of revenue; international ~13% and growing faster). Whether Q4 maintains the cadence of disclosure is itself a signal.

Whether 47% Q4 margin is repeated in Q4 FY2026 framing. A management commitment to expand Q4 FY2026 margin above 47% would substantiate structural operating leverage; silence would suggest the 47% included political-mix or one-time leverage.

Sources

Trade Desk Q4-2025 press release (8-K Exhibit 99.1), filed February 25, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1671933/000167193326000009/ttd-20260225x8kexx991.htm
Trade Desk Q3-2025 press release and prior Tapebrief coverage (for guidance baseline)

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