tapebrief

TXN · Q1 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Texas Instruments

Reported April 22, 2026

30-second summary

Revenue of $4.825B (+19% YoY, +9% QoQ) cleared the high end of the prior $4.32–4.68B guide by $145M, GAAP EPS of $1.68 came in $0.20 above the high end, and gross margin recovered to 58.0% from Q4's 55.9%. The Q2 guide — revenue $5.00–5.40B (mid $5.20B, implying +12–21% YoY against the Q2 FY2025 base of $4.45B) and EPS $1.77–2.05 — is well above typical Q2-up-mid-single-digits seasonality and resolves the Q4 watch question on whether the Q1 up-guide was pull-in: it wasn't. Industrial grew ~30% YoY (eighth straight sequential up quarter, still 15% below 2022 peak), data center +90% YoY, and management announced an agreement to acquire Silicon Labs.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q1 FY2026

$1.68

Revenue

Q1 FY2026

$4.83B

+19.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q1 FY2026

58.0%

Free cash flow

Q1 FY2026

$1.40B

Operating margin

Q1 FY2026

37.4%

Key financials

Q1 FY2026
MetricQ1 FY2026YoYQ4 FY2025QoQ
Revenue$4.83B+19.0%$4.42B+9.1%
EPS$1.68$1.27+32.3%
Gross margin58.0%55.9%+206bps
Operating margin37.4%33.3%+413bps
Free cash flow$1.40B$1.33B+5.3%

Guidance

TI raised guidance following strong Q1 FY2026 beats on both revenue and EPS; Q2 FY2026 outlook implies accelerating sequential growth into mid-single-digit YoY comparisons.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
RevenueQ1 FY2026$4.32B – $4.68B$4.825B+$0.145B above high end of guideBeat
EPS (GAAP)Q1 FY2026$1.22 – $1.48$1.68+$0.20 above high end of guideBeat

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
RevenueQ2 FY2026$5.00B – $5.40B+12.4–21.3% YoY
EPS (GAAP)Q2 FY2026$1.77 – $2.05
Effective Tax RateQ2 FY2026about 13%

Segment performance

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026YoY
Analog$3.924B+22.0%
Embedded Processing$0.723B+12.0%
Other$0.178B-16.0%
Analog Segment Operating Margin41.7%
Embedded Processing Operating Margin16.9%

Profitability

Q1 FY2026
SegmentQ1 FY2026
Operating Margin37.4%
Free Cash Flow Margin29.0%
Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow$4.351 billion
Cash Flow from Operations (TTM)$7.824 billion
Capital Expenditures (Quarter)$676 million
CHIPS Act Incentives Received (Quarter)$555 million

Management tone

Cycle confidence → tariff caution (Q2) → explicit deceleration (Q3) → "recovery is continuing" (Q4) → "continued acceleration in industrial and data center" (Q1).

Three quarters ago management was hedging the recovery as "slower than prior upturns"; two quarters ago it was "recovery is continuing"; this quarter the language is "revenue came in above the top of the range as we saw continued acceleration in industrial and data center." The qualifier verbs are gone. The Q2 guide — implying YoY growth that accelerates to as high as +21% — is the financial expression: management is no longer hedging cycle reads, they are guiding to acceleration.

The inventory story completed its inversion. Q2 framing: "low customer inventory is a defensive asset." Q3 framing: "depletion appears to be behind us." Q1 framing: "we remain well positioned with inventory and capacity that allows us to support our customers with competitive lead times through the cycle." The phrase "through the cycle" reframes what was a managed-build risk one year ago as a structural competitive moat. In the Bank of America exchange, management explicitly dismissed inventory hoarding concerns and noted broad-based demand across customer sizes — "tail customers" awakening is the signal that the recovery has breadth, not just data-center concentration.

The capex narrative completed the transition from build to harvest. TTM FCF of $4.351B vs $1.7B a year ago (+156%) on $676M of Q1 capex offset by $555M of CHIPS Act receipts. Management's framing: "trending up as growth returns and CapEx begins to moderate." The capex-intensity overhang that defined 2023–2025 commentary is now described as a recovery thesis input rather than a margin headwind. This is the cleanest articulation yet of the FCF/share story TI has been signaling for four quarters.

Strategic posture shifted from end-market portfolio defense to active M&A. The Silicon Labs acquisition announcement — closing H1 2027, subject to approvals — is the first deal of this scale in years and reframes embedded as a growth vector rather than a margin laggard. Q4's framing was "we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial automotive and data center"; this quarter that emphasis is being operationalized through inorganic expansion into embedded wireless connectivity.

The one place management hedged was H2 risk. In the Bank of America exchange, management pointedly cautioned that "last year had a strong start that did not accelerate in H2" and attributed potential repeat risk to macro/geopolitical uncertainty. That's the only callable downside in an otherwise unambiguously bullish read.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Industrial acceleration (30% YoY growth)Data center momentum (90% YoY growth)Margin expansion and profitability recoveryFree cash flow generation recoveryStrategic portfolio consolidation via M&AManufacturing and capacity as competitive moat

Risks management surfaced:

Forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertaintiesTransaction closing subject to necessary approvals (Silicon Labs deal)Automotive showing only mid-single digit YoY growthPersonal electronics flat YoY

Q&A highlights

Tim Arcuri · UBS

Commentary on customer behavior, seasonal trends, and breakdown of growth drivers by segment (industrial vs. data center) for Q2 guidance given strength in March and concerns about automotive choppiness in China.

Management confirmed Q1 was continuation of Q4 trends with growth led by industrial and data center. Industrial showed eighth quarter of sequential growth with broader signal across all sectors/geographies. Automotive in China was flat sequentially in Q1 with rest of world up; management notes automotive historically peaks later and is holding at elevated levels near previous peaks. No segment breakdown provided in guidance but both industrial and data center expected to drive growth in Q2.

Eighth quarter of sequential growth in industrialAll sectors and geographies grew sequentially in Q15-6 months of continued growth in industrialIndustrial still 15% below 2022 peak despite strong Q1 growth

Vivek Arya · Bank of America

Dissection of 30% industrial year-over-year growth - whether it represents inventory replenishment, pricing, share gains, or hoarding; followed by comparison to last year's first-half strength and second-half deceleration, asking about sustainability and fab loading strategy.

Management emphasized industrial growth of ~30% YoY is still 15% below 2022 peak and attributed to broad-based recovery across all sectors, customers, and regions - first quarter where 'tail' customers awakened after hibernation. Cautioned against last year's pattern where strong H1 was followed by H2 deceleration; attributed to macro/geopolitical uncertainty. No evidence of inventory hoarding or double-ordering. Noted capacity and inventory positioning allows handling wide range of scenarios. Rafael confirmed capacity and inventory well-positioned.

Industrial growth ~30% YoY but still 15% below 2022 peakBroad-based growth across all sectors, regions, and customer sizesFirst quarter seeing 'tail' customers wake up after long hibernationLast year had strong start that did not accelerate in H2

Joe Moore · Morgan Stanley

FAB loading and inventory strategy through Q2; expectation for incremental gross margins - whether normal, better, or worse than typical given rapid Q1 growth and inventory deployment.

Management stated well-positioned on inventory and loadings to maintain customer service with short, stable lead times. Q1 rapid growth supported by inventory depletion serving real-time customer demand. Gross margin fall-through expected in 75%-85% range (excluding depreciation) on long-term basis; Q2 should follow guided assumptions when calculating from EPS/revenue midpoints with OPEX and other line items. May make incremental AT investments due to external tightness in assembly/test capacity.

Inventory well-positioned; objective is high customer service and stable short lead timesQ1 growth rapid; inventory served as buffer, now partially depletedGross margin fall-through guidance: 75%-85% (excluding depreciation)May make incremental investments in assembly/test capacity externally tight

Stacy Raskin · Bernstein Research

Gross margin drivers in Q2 - specifically whether incremental margins appear lower than expected given strong revenue growth; followed by question on how company will report post-acquisition (GAAP vs. pro forma) and accrual charges impact.

Management clarified that OPEX growth assumptions should be considered alongside continued acquisition-related charges (ongoing until close, then higher at close, then steady for years). Once charges accounted for, gross margin assumptions align with guidance. Post-acquisition, company will report GAAP with detailed breakout of all adjustments (acquisition charges, inventory write-ups, etc.) to allow analysts to build non-GAAP themselves, similar to approach after Nat Semi acquisition.

Acquisition charges to continue at ~Q1 levels each quarter until closeCharges higher at close, then steady for years post-closeWill report GAAP but provide all adjustment line items for non-GAAP flexibilityAcquisition charges include legal, regulatory, banking fees (initially cash-based, then non-cash)

Ross Seymour · Deutsche Bank

What was the biggest surprise vs. Q1 midpoint guidance and was pricing part of the strength; followed by question on whether consumer-oriented segment weakness from higher memory costs is evident in results.

Pricing was slightly better than modeled - expected low single-digit decline YoY and sequential, but Q1 was actually flat both ways due to price agreements kicking in early and broader demand offsetting typical Q1 weakness. Management noted market-wide pricing pressure emerging (several months of price increases in analog), but unlikely to help growth until H2 if demand sustains. Surprise was breadth of demand across sectors, regions, and customer sizes; no evidence of consumer-driven demand destruction from memory costs - customers aware but preparing well. Personal electronics segment was slightly better than seasonal, not weak.

Q1 pricing flat YoY and sequential (vs. typical low single-digit decline)Broader demand across multiple sectors, regions, customer sizesMarket-wide analog pricing pressure building; potential H2 price increase if demand continuesNo evidence of consumer demand destruction from memory costs

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the Q1 sequential up-guide is followed by Q2 acceleration or reversion — Q2 guide of $5.00–5.40B implies +3.6% to +11.9% QoQ vs. the historic Q2 mid-single-digit-up pattern, and YoY of +12.4% to +21.3% against $4.45B Q2 FY2025 base. This is well above seasonal. Q1 strength was demand-led, not pull-in. Status: Resolved positively.
Gross margin trajectory back toward 57%+ on Q1's higher revenue base — Gross margin printed 58.0% on $4.825B revenue, cleanly above the 57% threshold and up ~210bps from Q4's 55.9%. Loadings cuts from Q3 have washed out of the cost structure. Status: Resolved positively.
2026 FCF margin trajectory with capex at $2–3B and depreciation $2.2–2.4B — TTM FCF reached $4.351B, ~21% TTM margin (vs. 16.6% FY2025 print and $1.7B TTM in Q1 FY2025). Q1 standalone FCF margin of 29.0%. Capex/depreciation crossover is materializing earlier than the watch threshold implied. Status: Resolved positively.
Personal electronics and communications equipment trajectory — Personal electronics is flat YoY and "slightly better than seasonal" — improved from Q4's upper-teens decline. Comms equipment was not called out as a drag. The strategic-deprioritization read from Q4 has at least paused; these segments are stabilizing, not collapsing. Status: Resolved positively.
Data center run rate sustaining $450M+ for an eighth consecutive quarter — Data center grew +90% YoY in Q1 and management characterized it as ongoing secular growth. The specific quarterly run-rate dollar figure wasn't disclosed on the print, but a +90% YoY rate on a ~$450M Q4 base puts it materially above the watch threshold. Status: Resolved positively.
Whether full-year revenue/EPS guidance is reinstated — No FY revenue or EPS guide was issued this quarter; the only forward FY disclosure remains the effective tax rate (narrowed from 13–14% to ~13%). The "range of scenarios" posture persists even as Q2 was guided up materially. Status: Resolved negatively.

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q2 actual revenue hits the $5.20B midpoint or pushes toward $5.40B — guide implies +12–21% YoY; an actual print above the high end (say $5.45B+) would confirm management is now sandbagging into accelerating demand; a print below midpoint would validate the Bank of America-flagged H2 risk.

Industrial sequential trajectory in Q2 — ninth consecutive up-quarter or first plateau — industrial is still 15% below 2022 peak with room to recover; a ninth straight sequential gain would extend the cleanest cycle signal in the print; a plateau would echo the 2025 H1→H2 reversal management explicitly warned about.

Gross margin progression on Q2's higher revenue base — at 58.0% on $4.825B and 75–85% fall-through (ex-depreciation), Q2 at $5.20B midpoint should mechanically lift gross margin toward 59%+. A print below 58.5% would suggest acquisition-related charges and AT investment are eating the fall-through.

Pricing inflection in H2 — management flagged market-wide analog price increases building "over several months" but said pricing won't contribute to growth until H2 if demand sustains. Watch whether Q3 commentary quantifies actual price realization vs. the prior 2025 guidance of -2% to -3% annual decline.

Data center run-rate dollars disclosed explicitly — +90% YoY is the strongest secular signal in the print, but the absolute quarterly figure is missing. Watch whether the Q2 print discloses a specific run rate; a $700M+ quarter would put TI's data center business at a $2.8B+ annualized run rate vs. ~$1.8B exiting 2025.

Silicon Labs deal — financing structure and accretion framework at the next print — TI has not yet disclosed deal size, financing, or pro-forma capital return implications. The first detail disclosures will determine whether the deal compresses the FCF/share story or extends it.

Sources

  1. TXN Q1 2026 press release (8-K exhibit 99-ER), filed with SEC: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000097/q12026txnex99-eredgar.htm
  2. TXN Q1 2026 earnings call Q&A (as provided in extraction inputs; no full transcript URL on file).

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