VRSK · Q4 2025 Earnings

Cautious

Verisk Analytics

Reported February 18, 2026

30-second summary

Verisk closed FY25 with $3.073B revenue (+6.6% YoY) and $7.16 non-GAAP EPS, beating its own lowered guidance high end on every line, but Q4 organic constant-currency growth slowed to 5.2% — below the 6% bear threshold flagged last quarter — and management terminated the AccuLynx acquisition citing "opportunity cost of waiting on the sidelines." The opening FY26 guide of $3.19–$3.24B implies 3.8–5.5% reported growth, which is below the long-term 6–8% target band management spent all of 2025 reaffirming. The story is no longer platform/network construction; it's a data-and-AI utility being repositioned for slower, more durable compounding.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$1.82

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$0.78B

+5.9% YoY

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2025

$0.28B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

40.3%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$0.78B	+5.9%	$0.77B	+1.4%
EPS	$1.82	—	$1.72	+5.8%
Operating margin	40.3%	—	45.0%	-470bps
Free cash flow	$0.28B	—	$0.34B	-17.9%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	FY2025	$3.05 to $3.08 billion	$3.073 billion	+0.8% above the high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2025	$6.80 to $7.00	$7.16	+2.3% above the high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$1.69 to $1.72 billion	$1.743 billion	+1.3% above the high end of guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	FY2025	55.0% to 55.8%	56.7%	+0.9 points above the high end of guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	FY2026	$3.19 to $3.24 billion	+3.8% to +5.5% YoY
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2026	$7.45 to $7.75	+4.0% to +8.1% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2026	$1.79 to $1.83 billion	+2.6% to +4.9% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	FY2026	56.0% to 56.5%	—
Tax Rate	FY2026	23% to 26%	—
Capital Expenditures	FY2026	$260 to $280 million	—
Interest Expense	FY2026	$190 to $200 million	—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Underwriting	$0.556B	+8.7%
Claims	$0.223B	-0.7%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$437 million
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	56.1%
Organic Constant Currency Revenue Growth	5.2%
Organic Constant Currency Adjusted EBITDA Growth	6.2%
Diluted Adjusted EPS Growth	13.0%
Free Cash Flow Growth	38.0%
Operating Cash Flow	$343 million
Dividend Per Share	$0.45

Management tone

Narrative arc: Platform ambition (Q2) → Defensive operational story with AI proof points (Q3) → Strategic reset around AI-as-data-delivery and the AccuLynx pivot (Q4).

From "we continue to believe in AccuLynx" to walking away on opportunity-cost grounds. Last quarter management defended AccuLynx as strategically and financially compelling while pulling the 2025 contribution; this quarter they terminated the deal outright. The framing — "the opportunity cost of waiting on the sidelines through a long, uncertain, and costly approval process was too high, given the rapidly evolving environment" — concedes that the regulatory delay broke the deal economics, not the deal logic. The platform/network thesis Verisk was selling in Q2 is now functionally retired; the M&A bridge to 2026 growth is gone, and management is reframing the moat around AI-enhanced data delivery instead. This is the most consequential strategic reset in the three-quarter arc.

From AI as workflow upsell to AI as the entire operating model. In Q2, AI was workflow transformation. In Q3, it was a deployed product with named client adoption. This quarter management says "we currently have more than 35 AI-powered projects and solutions for both internal and external purposes in use today," updates ExactExpert adoption to "seven of the top 10 homeowners insurers," introduces ExactGen as "agentic AI to handle content gatherings from many sources," and explicitly reframes Verisk's competitive position: "our data is at the core because that analytics function relies on good quality industry-wide data… to make certain we're delivering the data in a format that can be effectively utilized by AI." The shift signals management has decided to compete on data infrastructure quality rather than software features — a defensible position if data remains non-substitutable, but a meaningful retreat from the platform/SaaS valuation framing of Q2.

From "transactional inflection" (Q2) to "transactional as cyclical, normalized to subscription" (Q4). Q2 framed transactional growth as a return to growth. Q3 attributed weakness to weather and called it temporary. This quarter management acknowledges transactional revenue declined 6.5% on an OCC basis in Q4, citing low weather activity and personal-lines auto softness, and leans on subscription (84% of revenue, +7.7% OCC) as the durable story. The 2024 transactional narrative is effectively buried.

From confident reaffirmation of long-term 6–8% targets to a FY26 guide that sits below the band. The Q3 brief flagged that management said three times they had confidence in delivering long-term targets in 2026 — Q4 produced a 3.8–5.5% reported revenue guide. Management's language remains confident ("we continue to have confidence in our ability to deliver results in line with our long-term growth targets for 2026 and beyond"), but the reported numbers don't match the words. Either Verisk expects M&A to bridge the gap (with AccuLynx terminated, this is speculative), or the long-term targets need updating.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

AI as integrated data delivery mechanism, not standalone software threatEcosystem connectivity and multi-party integration driving competitive moatValue-based pricing supported by measurable client ROI on data investmentsSubscription revenue stability (84% of total, +7.7% OCC growth) offsetting transactional volatilityPortfolio optimization through divestitures (VMS, AccuLinks termination) to focus on core data/analyticsClient sophistication segmentation: large clients build proprietary AI, mid-market adopts Verisk AI solutions

Risks management surfaced:

Historically low weather activity creating transactional revenue headwind (quantified as ~1% impact in Q4)Personal lines auto competitive pressures and one-time revenue depletionGovernment contract work stoppage in Q1 2026First half 2026 tough comps from strong 2025 subscription renewalsRegulatory approval uncertainty and FTC extension risk (now mitigated via AccuLinks termination)

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 organic CC growth above 6% (temporary) or below 6% (structural) — Came in at 5.2%, below the bear threshold. Management cites weather and transactional headwinds (approximately 1% drag from low weather and a government contract), but the persistence now reads as structural rather than weather-flattered. Status: Resolved negatively

AccuLynx FTC second-request resolution — Terminated. Verisk walked away citing "opportunity cost" of the prolonged regulatory process, and redeemed the $1.5B in senior notes that were issued in connection with the deal. The strategic repositioning toward network/SaaS that anchored the Q2 story is now formally on the shelf. Management has not disclosed a replacement transaction. Status: Resolved negatively

ExactExpert client count and AI upsell quantification — Management updated adoption to "seven of the top 10 homeowners insurers" and "tens of thousands of adjusters and estimators," broadened the framing to "more than 35 AI-powered projects and solutions," and introduced ExactGen (agentic AI) but did not quantify monetization. The shift from product-level metrics to portfolio-level counts makes the AI commercialization narrative harder to underwrite. Status: Continue monitoring

Subscription OCC growth above 8% — Held at 7.7% OCC subscription growth (84% of revenue), just below the 8% threshold flagged last quarter. The structural story management is leaning on weakened modestly but not catastrophically; the print supports the resilience claim without confirming acceleration. Status: Continue monitoring

Initial 2026 guidance framing vs 6–8% long-term target — FY26 reported revenue guide of 3.8–5.5% sits below the 6–8% target band. Even adjusted for the marketing solutions divestiture and FX, the guide is unlikely to clear 6% on an organic basis. This is the clearest bear signal in the print. Status: Resolved negatively

Auto Underwriting segment disclosure — No explicit auto sub-segment metric. Management acknowledged "softness in our personal lines auto business" as a continued headwind but provided no quantification. The disclosure gap persists. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Q1 2026 organic CC revenue growth — management guided Q1 reported revenue to be down low single digits sequentially and explicitly flagged Q1 as the trough. Anything below 4% organic CC growth confirms the FY26 guide is back-loaded and at risk of a mid-year cut; above 5% supports the "normalization" framing.

FY26 guide trajectory — Verisk has a pattern of starting the year conservative and raising. Watch whether Q1 brings any FY26 revenue or EBITDA raise, or whether the opening guide is the right read.

M&A pipeline replacement for AccuLynx — with the network/SaaS thesis on pause, watch for any successor deal announcement or a clear capital return acceleration. The $1.5B ASR and increased $2.5B repurchase authorization are the early signal management may default to buybacks.

Subscription OCC growth — held at 7.7% this quarter. If this drops below 7% in Q1, the durable-compounder story management is now leaning on materially weakens.

AI monetization disclosure — management has moved from product-level metrics to portfolio-level ("35+ AI projects"). Watch whether Q1 reverts to product-level disclosure or stays at portfolio-level abstraction. Continued abstraction is a tell that monetization is thinner than the narrative suggests.

Claims segment recovery — Q4 Claims revenue contracted 0.7% YoY. Two more quarters of flat-to-negative Claims would invalidate the weather-temporary framing entirely.

Sources

Verisk Analytics Q4 2025 earnings press release (Form 8-K exhibit), filed February 18, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442145/000143774926004451/ex_895228.htm

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