Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

VST · Q4 2025 Earnings

Vistra Corp.

Reported February 26, 2026

30-second summary

Vistra closed FY2025 at $5,912M Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA — $12M above the narrowed $5.9B ceiling and ~$112M above the original guidance midpoint — and FY2025 FCFbG at $3,592M, $92M above the $3.5B ceiling and ~$292M above the original midpoint. Management reaffirmed FY2026 EBITDA at $6.8–7.6B (excludes Cogentrix; mgmt will update at Cogentrix close) and the FY2027 midpoint opportunity at $7.4–7.8B (excludes Cogentrix + Meta; mgmt indicated ~$700–750M incremental 2027 contribution from those deals once layered in). Vistra disclosed ~3,800 MW total nuclear contracted (1,200 MW AWS Comanche Peak + 2,176 MW Meta operating at Perry/Davis-Besse + 433 MW Meta uprates online 2031–2034) — the second hyperscaler PPA the Q3 watch list flagged. Q4 EBITDA of $1,742M came in well above the ~$1.45B Q3 implied requirement, fully absorbing the outage drag that had clipped the 2025 ceiling.

Guidance

Company beat FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG guidance while reaffirming flat FY2026 and FY2027 forward guidance with no changes to previously initiated ranges.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$5.7 billion to $5.9 billion	$5.912 billion	+$0.012 billion above high end	Beat
Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG	FY2025	$3.3 billion to $3.5 billion	$3.592 billion	+$0.092 billion above high end	Beat

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2025)	$1,742 million
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA (FY 2025)	$5,912 million
Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG (FY 2025)	$3,592 million
Nuclear Power Purchase Agreements	~3,800 MW with AWS and Meta
Generation Capacity (Lotus + Cogentrix planned)	~8,100 MW
Share Repurchases (Since Nov 2021)	~$5.9 billion
Shares Outstanding Reduction	~30%
Total Available Liquidity (as of Dec 31, 2025)	$2,783 million

Management tone

Q2 deal pipeline forming → Q3 contracting velocity → Q4 operating model validated

Management reiterated — explicitly *not* initiated — the measured-pace demand view. Burke framed it as "something we've been consistently messaging for some time": "Load growth is real and significant, but it is likely not at the extremely elevated levels in the rapid timeframe that has been forecasted by many third parties. The fact that we see the load growth coming more slowly than some forecast does not dampen our enthusiasm." The tonal point is one of consistency rather than pivot — management is using FY2025 results as confirmation that the multi-year ladder does not depend on the most aggressive third-party load forecasts being right.

The "growth vs. stability" framing was directly inverted. Across prior quarters, contracted capacity growth carried an implicit margin-trade-off subtext. This quarter management denies the trade-off outright: "We are not trading growth for stability. We are achieving both. Our percentage of contracted wholesale will increase substantially…we expect nearly half of our total adjusted EBITDA to be generated from highly stable earning sources." Reaching ~50% contracted EBITDA while reaffirming the 15–28% 2026 EBITDA growth band is the substantive claim — and it is more confident than anything in the Q2 or Q3 records.

Nuclear shifted from "long-term strategic asset" to "near-term cash flow lever." Q3 closed Comanche Peak as a 20-year PPA. This quarter, with Meta added, the contracted nuclear footprint is 3,800 MW and management explicitly quantifies the cash uplift: "Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis." The 25% FCFbG accretion claim is the most specific cash-flow figure management has attached to the nuclear contracting story to date.

Data center timing was explicitly pushed out. Where Q2 talked about deals closing "by year end" and Q3 cited "highest level of engagement," this quarter management codifies the near-term ceiling: "We continue to believe the impact of data centers on tightening supply-demand dynamics will not meaningfully begin until late 2027 or early 2028…we view a measured pace of growth as a positive." The PPAs are real and accretive now, but management is no longer leaning on a near-term tightening cycle.

Thermal generation was repositioned from transitional to validated reliability backbone. Winter Storm Fern is now used as the strategic anchor: "During the tightest hours, thermal generation accounted for approximately 93% of all power delivered to the ERCOT grid." Where Q3 framed M&A as "evaluating opportunities," the reliability-validation lens supports an explicitly more assertive defense of gas asset ownership — relevant given Cogentrix is now a disclosed planned addition alongside the closed Lotus deal.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Structural demand growth with durable, measured trajectory replacing episodic peaksDe-risking business through substantial contracted revenue while growing absolute earnings powerNuclear PPAs as major earnings/cash flow lever (3.8GW contracted; pathway to 25% FCFBG accretion)Integrated model advantage in development, M&A, and customer solutions at scaleThermal dispatchability as critical reliability resource validated by extreme weather eventsMulti-year free cash flow per share growth trajectory ($12.50→$16→$22-25 potential)

Risks management surfaced:

Data center build schedules and interconnect timing delays beyond late 2027/early 2028PJM tariff and regulatory uncertainty around co-location, RBA rules, and capacity market reformsEquipment and EPC supply constraints (though management downplayed these)Changes in power market fundamentals and customer preferences affecting growth opportunity setHyperscaler contract structures and gas risk allocation still being negotiated

Answers to last quarter's watch list

2025 EBITDA landing within the narrowed $5.7–5.9B range — Resolved positively. Q4 EBITDA of $1,742M against an implied $1,450M requirement at the midpoint drove FY2025 to $5,912M, $12M above the ceiling and ~$112M above the original midpoint. Outage drag from Martin Lake and Moss Landing was absorbed without breaking the range. Status: Resolved positively

2026 range narrowing as the year opens — Not resolved. Management left the $800M-wide $6.8–7.6B FY2026 EBITDA range and $800M-wide $3.925–4.725B FCFbG range unchanged, with explicit note that both exclude Cogentrix and will be updated at close. Status: Continue monitoring

Second data center / nuclear contracting deal — Resolved positively. Vistra disclosed ~3,800 MW total contracted nuclear (1,200 MW AWS + 2,176 MW Meta operating + 433 MW Meta uprates) — Meta is the second hyperscaler counterparty Q3 telegraphed. Status: Resolved positively

Investment-grade rating action — Not resolved. The press release did not announce a rating agency action this quarter, though Chris noted improved metrics "could position us for additional ratings upgrades potentially as early as later this year." Status: Continue monitoring

Miami Fort conversion capex disclosure — Not resolved. No capex figure or in-service date was attached to Miami Fort in this disclosure, though Burke confirmed the team continues to "advance our plans to convert our Miami Fort facility in Ohio from coal to gas." Status: Continue monitoring

Hedge book rolling into 2027 — Resolved. Press release disclosed ~100% hedged for 2026, ~84% for 2027, and ~58% for 2028 as of Feb 18, 2026. Status: Resolved

What to watch into next quarter

FY2026 guidance update at Cogentrix close — management committed to updating both 2026 guidance and the 2027 midpoint opportunity when the ~5,500 MW deal closes (expected mid-to-late 2026). The Q1 call will likely refresh framing but not the numbers.

Q4 net income reconciliation — $233M net income against $1,742M EBITDA reflects $441M unrealized hedge losses and $155M Moss Landing impairment; watch the 10-K for additional detail.

Third hyperscaler PPA or expansion at Beaver Valley / Comanche Peak — management flagged "approximately 3.2 gigawatts" of remaining nuclear contracting opportunity, including ~200 MW potential uprate at Comanche Peak.

Investment-grade rating decision — Chris explicitly telegraphed potential upgrades "as early as later this year"; a Q1 or Q2 rating action would crystallize the balance sheet narrative.

Cogentrix transaction close and EBITDA contribution disclosure — disclosed purchase economics ($730/kW net of tax benefits, mid-single-digit FCFbG/share accretion in 2027, high single-digit average 2027–29) frame the deal; close timing is the variable.

PJM regulatory clarity — co-location tariff filings, reliability backstop auction rules, and capacity market reform will inform the next round of Beaver Valley and new-build gas contracting conversations.

Sources

Vistra Corp. Q4 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312526073364/d21122dex991.htm
Vistra Corp. Q3 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312525268033/d33941dex991.htm
Vistra Corp. Q2 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312525174942/d929557dex991.htm

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