Preliminary brief— based on press release only. Full analysis including management tone and Q&A will be added when the transcript is available.

WMT · Q4 2025 Earnings

Walmart

Reported February 19, 2026

30-second summary

Walmart closed FY26 with Q4 revenue of $190.7B (+5.6% YoY), adj. EPS of $0.74, and full-year adjusted operating income growth of +5.4% cc — landing at the top of the +4.8–5.5% raised guide. The Q4 exit was stronger: reported OI +10.8% (adj. cc +10.5%) on Q4 sales of +5.6% reported / +4.9% cc — a clean accelerating finish. The FY27 setup decelerates sales to +3.5–4.5% cc and adj. OI to +6.0–8.0% cc — but the "profit faster than sales" algorithm is preserved at both the floor and the ceiling. Q1 FY27 OI was re-guided at +4.0–6.0% cc, narrower than the 300bps band of a year ago — a signal that tariff/RIM volatility is no longer a structural reason for caution.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.74

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$190.70B

+5.6% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

24.0%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

4.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$190.70B	+5.6%	$179.50B	+6.2%
EPS	$0.74	—	$0.62	+19.4%
Gross margin	24.0%	—	24.2%	-20bps
Operating margin	4.6%	—	3.8%	+80bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY 2026	$2.58 to $2.63	$2.64	+$0.01 above high end of guide	Beat
Net Sales Growth (constant currency)	FY 2026	4.8% to 5.1%	4.7%	-0.1–0.4pts vs guide range; below midpoint	Beat
Adjusted Operating Income Growth (constant currency)	FY 2026	4.8% to 5.5%	10.8%	+5.3–6.0pts above guide range	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	Q1 FY2027	$0.63 to $0.65	—
Net Sales Growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2027	Increase 3.5% to 4.5%	—
Operating Income Growth (constant currency)	Q1 FY2027	Increase 4.0% to 6.0%	—
Adjusted EPS	FY 2027	$2.75 to $2.85	+4.2–7.6% YoY
Net Sales Growth (constant currency)	FY 2027	Increase 3.5% to 4.5%	—
Adjusted Operating Income Growth (constant currency)	FY 2027	Increase 6.0% to 8.0%	—
Interest, Net	FY 2027	Increase approximately $200M to $300M	—
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2027	Approximately 23.5% to 24.5%	—
Capital Expenditures	FY 2027	—	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Walmart U.S.	$129.2B	+4.6%
Walmart International	$35.9B	+11.5%
Sam's Club U.S.	$23.8B	+2.9%

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Global eCommerce Growth	24%
Walmart U.S. Comp Sales (ex. fuel)	4.6%
Sam's Club U.S. Comp Sales (ex. fuel)	4.0%
Global Advertising Business Growth	37%
Membership Fee Revenue Growth	15.1%

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Gross Margin Rate Change	+13 bps
Operating Income Growth	10.8%
Return on Investment (ROI)	15.1%

Management tone

CEO transition context aside, the Q4 FY26 commentary leaned into momentum and forward confidence rather than the defensive posture of earlier quarters.

From algorithm-restored to algorithm-extended. Q4 delivered adj. OI cc +10.5% on Q4 sales cc +4.9%, and FY27 is guided +6–8% OI on +3.5–4.5% sales — preserving the "profit faster than sales" spread at both ends of the band. The reinstatement of a tighter (200bps) Q1 OI band signals that tariff/RIM volatility is no longer the gating constraint on guidance precision.

From "emerging contributors" to a quantified diversification story. Global advertising grew 46% for the full year to nearly $6.4B (including VIZIO); membership fee revenue grew 15.1% globally in Q4. The diversification thesis is no longer qualitative — it is a hard-math contributor to the OI algorithm.

New $30B repurchase authorization alongside the FY27 guide — a capital-return signal that pairs with the raised dividend and reinforces management's confidence in the cash-generation profile.

CEO transition framing. John Furner's opening — "the pace of change in retail is accelerating… we're not only embracing this change, we're leading it" — strikes a forward-leaning tone for his first quarter in the seat.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Omnichannel convenience as competitive moat beyond priceHigher-margin digital businesses (ads, membership, marketplace) driving profit growth faster than salesSupply chain automation enabling cost productivity and ROI expansionGeneral merchandise recovery and marketplace-driven assortment breadthE-commerce unit economics inflection via densification and expedited delivery monetizationAI and automation improving operational efficiency without core cultural change

Risks management surfaced:

Tariffs and potential pass-through impact on consumer behaviorCurrency headwinds (expected 100 bps to sales, 150 bps to operating income growth)Macroeconomic uncertainty and potential consumer spending pressureMerchandise mix shift toward grocery/health (lower margin) vs. general merchandiseLeap year comparison cycling impact in 2026

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether the FY26 OI guide is achieved at or above the +4.8% floor. Resolved positively. FY26 adj. OI grew +5.4% cc — at the high end of the +4.8–5.5% guide. Combined with a Q4 adj. OI exit of +10.5% cc, the algorithm-restored narrative is intact heading into FY27.

Resolved positively

Sam's Club comp trajectory. Q4 Sam's Club US comp ex-fuel of +4.0% decelerated against a tough +6.8% prior-year compare; full-year comp +5.1% remains healthy. Status: Mixed

Whether Q4 advertising growth holds above +35% ex-VIZIO. Global ads +37% in Q4; Walmart Connect US +41% ex-VIZIO — comfortably above the +30% threshold where the profit-pool diversification thesis would weaken.

Resolved positively

FY27 initial guide framing on the Q4 call. Resolved positively. Management issued a Q1 FY27 operating income range of +4.0–6.0% cc — a 200bps band, narrower than the 300bps band issued a year ago. The reinstatement of normal-cadence quarterly OI guidance with a tightening band signals tariff/RIM volatility is no longer the gating constraint.

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY27 actual OI growth lands above the +6.0% high end of the guide. FY26 closed at the top of the raised guide and Q4 exited at adj. OI cc +10.5%; the Q1 FY27 +4.0–6.0% cc range is the cleanest test of whether the quarterly exit momentum carries or whether the Q4 strength captured one-time leverage that won't repeat.

Walmart US gross margin trajectory. Q4 GM rate +13bps YoY is modest; FY27 OI guide of +6–8% on +3.5–4.5% sales requires either continued GM expansion or further SG&A leverage. Watch whether the Q1 GM rate steps up or stays in the +10–20bps range.

Sam's Club re-acceleration. Q4 comp +4.0% against a +6.8% prior-year compare is a tough optic; watch whether Q1 demonstrates a cleaner underlying trend now that the wage-investment lap is further along.

Walmart International ex-currency durability. Q4 net sales +7.5% cc was strong with China, Walmex, and Flipkart all contributing; FY26 adj. OI cc +8.0%. Whether the +9.3% FY cc top-line pace sustains into Q1 (against Easter timing shifts) is the key tell.

Capital return cadence under the new $30B authorization. FY26 repurchases were $8.1B; pace of execution under the new authorization will signal management's read on intrinsic value vs. reinvestment priorities.

Sources

Walmart FY26 Q4 Earnings Release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000032/earningsreleasefy26q4.htm
Walmart FY26 Q3 Earnings Release (prior-quarter guidance baseline) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416925000177/earningsreleasefy26q3.htm

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