ABBV · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

AbbVie

Reported October 31, 2025

30-second summary

Revenue grew 9.1% YoY to $15.78B, beating management's own $15.5B guide by ~$276M, with adjusted EPS of $1.86 (GAAP $0.10) — $0.10 above management's guidance midpoint despite a $1.50/share acquired IPR&D charge. Management raised FY2025 revenue guidance for the third consecutive quarter to ~$60.9B and lifted adjusted EPS to $10.61–$10.65 (from $10.38–$10.58), with Skyrizi alone now guided to $17.3B FY (raised again). The headline number to internalise: Skyrizi +46.8% to $4.71B and Rinvoq +35.3% to $2.18B more than absorbed Humira's -55.4% collapse to $993M — Humira is now under $1B per quarter, and the combo is running at 6.9x Humira quarterly.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.86

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$15.78B

+9.1% YoY

Gross margin

Q3 FY2025

66.4%

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

12.1%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$15.78B	+9.1%	$15.42B	+2.3%
EPS	$1.86	—	$2.97	-37.4%
Gross margin	66.4%	—	71.8%	-540bps
Operating margin	12.1%	—	31.7%	-1960bps

Guidance

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q3 FY2025	approximately $15.5 billion	$15.776 billion	+$0.276 billion above guide	Beat
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q3 FY2025	$3.24 - $3.28	$1.86	below prior guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Non-GAAP Tax Rate	FY2025	approximately 17.3%	—
Aesthetics Total Sales	FY2025	$4.9 billion	—

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
EPS (Non-GAAP)	FY2025	$11.88 - $12.08	$10.61 - $10.65	-$1.27 to -$1.43 (midpoint -$1.35 or ~11.1% reduction)	Lowered
Revenue	FY2025	approximately $60.5 billion	approximately $60.9 billion	+$0.4 billion	Raised
Adjusted Operating Margin	FY2025	~45% of sales	approximately 41% of sales	-4 percentage points	Lowered
Skyrizi Global Sales	FY2025	$17.1 billion	$17.3 billion	+$0.2 billion	Raised
Neuroscience Global Revenues	FY2025	$10.5 billion	$10.7 billion	+$0.2 billion	Raised

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Adjusted Gross Margin (84% of sales), Adjusted R&D Expense ($9 billion), Adjusted SG&A Expense ($13.5 billion)

Segment KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Immunology	$7.885B	+11.9%
Skyrizi	$4.708B	+46.8%
Rinvoq	$2.184B	+35.3%
Humira	$0.993B	-55.4%
Neuroscience	$2.841B	+20.2%
Oncology	$1.682B	-0.3%
Aesthetics	$1.193B	-3.7%
Eye Care	$0.509B	-3.0%
Skyrizi YoY Growth	46.8%	—
Rinvoq YoY Growth	35.3%	—

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$1.86
Adjusted Gross Margin	83.9%
Adjusted Operating Margin	30.9%
Adjusted Tax Rate	24.5%
Net Interest Expense	$667 million
Acquired IPR&D and Milestones Expense Impact	$1.50 per share

Management tone

Q1 2025 (implied): managing Humira cliff → Q2: "clear line of sight" for eight years → Q3: actively positioning for the 2030s and beyond.

Management's posture on Humira shifted from "managing decline" to treating the decline as a tailwind that diminishes from here. The framing this quarter was that the step-down is now substantially in the rear-view, with the business's other drivers fully capable of carrying the high single-digit growth outlook through the decade. Two quarters ago this was risk language; this quarter it is base-rate language. The signal is that the company believes the LOE math has substantially played out at $993M/qtr.

The IL-23 narrative has moved from defending share against Tremfya to claiming the market itself is expanding. Last quarter management was sizing share gains; this quarter Jeff reframed the dynamic: "the category or the class of IL-23s is expanding incredibly rapidly...the [mechanism] share for UC was around 5% just over a year ago. Now it's approaching close to 40...AbbVie has uniquely sort of a one-two punch in this market." The shift from share-of-fixed-pie to expanding-pie language is significant — it implies management does not believe oral IL-23 entrants will compress Skyrizi's trajectory.

Pipeline depth went from supporting actor to lead. Rob explicitly called out that investors are mispricing the breadth: "there are a few things that remain underappreciated...our strategy to continue innovating in immunology and drive growth beyond Skyrizi and Rinvoq...We also have lutikizumab...We also do not see enough investor focus on our neuroscience franchise...It's our second largest therapeutic area and the fastest growing." Last quarter management raised neuroscience by $300M without dwelling on it; this quarter the segment is being marketed as a structurally underappreciated franchise — and the FY guide moved up another $200M.

Aesthetics tone darkened modestly but remains framed as macro. Jeff acknowledged "challenging market conditions...consumer sentiment remaining quite low...category growth tracking below our previous assumptions globally" — the new $4.9B FY disclosure is the quiet write-down. The "long-term potential" language is intact, but management has now placed a new lower anchor in writing.

Parkinson's moved from emerging opportunity to active commercial expansion. Rob mentioned the company is "actively expanding our field sales team to support higher anticipated demand next year" for Vyalev, and Jeff added that "uptake across international markets continues to exceed our expectations." Two quarters ago Vyalev was a launch; this quarter it is being staffed for inflection.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Exceptional execution across diversified growth platform despite Humira erosionIL-23 market expansion creating non-zero-sum opportunity for SkyRizzi and RenvokeNeuroscience as second-largest and fastest-growing therapeutic area with leadership positionsPipeline depth across immunology, oncology, neuroscience underappreciated by marketRaising guidance for third consecutive quarter; momentum across all major franchisesStrategic M&A (Gilgamesh, Capstan, IGI) augmenting long-term growth into 2030s

Risks management surfaced:

Continued Humira biosimilar erosion through 2025 and 2026Aesthetics market softness globally and low consumer sentiment impacting category growthIRA price negotiations deeper than expected; impact on Vrelar and Linzess not yet disclosedPotential PBM model changes; reliance on differentiated medicines to adaptCompetitive dynamics from Tramfaya sub-Q induction in IL-23 space

Q&A highlights

Simon Baker · Rothschild and Redburn

What is the market opportunity size for RIMVOC in non-segmental vitiligo, and will Ella pricing in the UK follow a US-style gross-to-net model rather than a net market approach?

Management sized the next wave of RIMVOC indications (alopecia areata, vitiligo, HS, lupus) at a combined revenue potential of at least $2 billion at peak. For Ella UK pricing, management confirmed list price is similar to US but noted global pricing dynamics and HTA processes will determine net pricing. Management discussed potential reforms in European pricing structures and ongoing G7 pricing discussions.

Next big four RIMVOC indications sized at least $2 billion at peak revenue potentialAlopecia data described as 'quite striking' relative to standard of care and other JAK inhibitorsVitiligo high body surface area segment identified as particularly amenable to RIMVOC as first systemic optionElla UK list price similar to US, but HTA/NICE evaluation will determine net price

Louisa Hector · Berenberg

What are next steps for CAR T and oral peptide platforms in immunology, and what level of market penetration is achievable for advanced therapies in mature indications?

Management provided detailed pathway for in situ CAR T from Capstan (dose optimization, rapid and transient expression, no lymphodepletion needed) with dosing continuation in Phase 1 and rheumatology patient expansion next year. For oral peptides (Nimble acquisition), focus is on extending half-life of macrocyclic molecules with lead candidates being oral IL-23 and TL1A. Management quantified biopenetration rates by indication: Crohn's above 50%, atopic dermatitis in high single digits. Emphasized line of therapy expansion as driver of market growth.

In situ CAR T observed B-cell depletion in early Phase 1 with no lymphodepletion requirementCrohn's disease biopenetration above 50% in USAtopic dermatitis biopenetration in high single digits for moderate-to-severeNimble oral candidates: IL-23 and TL1A with focus on half-life extension

Mohed Bonzo · Wells Fargo

How will competitive oral IL-23 perform versus SkyRizzy and RIMVOC, and what role does the Amylin portfolio play in obesity/diabetes given incumbent competitor portfolios?

Management emphasized SkyRizzy's competitive strength through specific efficacy data (week 16 clear/almost clear ~90%, PASI 90 at 80%, PASI 100 at 60%), treatment durability (60% clear/almost clear after one year off drug), head-to-toe efficacy including psoriatic arthritis protection (88-90% no x-ray progression), and quarterly dosing convenience. For Amylin, management noted only 30% of patients continue GLP-1 therapy after one year and positioning Amylin combinations for improved tolerability and durability, with focus on maintaining bone health.

SkyRizzy Week 16: ~90% clear or almost clear; Week 52 PASI 90: 80%; PASI 100: 60%SkyRizzy one-year treatment withdrawal data: 60% clear or almost clearSkyRizzy psoriatic arthritis data: 88-90% no x-ray progression over 5 yearsSkyRizzy quarterly dosing option

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Skyrizi sustaining $4.4B+ quarterly run-rate — Skyrizi printed $4.71B, well above the $4.4B threshold implied by the prior $17.1B FY guide, and the FY guide was raised again to $17.3B. The IBD induction tailwind has not unwound. Status: Resolved positively.

Q3 pricing dynamics as Part D redesign hits H2 — Management did not break out a clean Q3 price/volume disaggregation in extracted commentary; underlying revenue beat was driven by volume in Skyrizi/Rinvoq/Neuroscience, but the magnitude of negative pricing was not disclosed in the available materials. Status: Continue monitoring.

Aesthetics inflection vs further deterioration — Aesthetics improved sequentially from -8.1% YoY in Q2 to -3.7% YoY in Q3 — the trajectory turned less negative, not more. Management formalised a $4.9B FY anchor, lower than the implicit trajectory entering the year but stabilising. Status: Resolved positively on trajectory, with the lower anchor a soft negative.

Humira US trajectory vs $3.0B FY guide — Global Humira printed $993M (-55.4%), a slight deceleration in the decline rate from Q2's -58.1%. The $3.0B US FY guide looks well-bracketed and was not adjusted. Status: Resolved positively — the LOE curve is not steeper than guided.

Rinvoq alopecia/GCA/lupus pipeline progress — Management quantified the combined "big four" Rinvoq indications (alopecia areata, vitiligo, HS, lupus) at "at least $2B" peak in Q&A and called the alopecia data "quite striking." No specific regulatory milestones disclosed this quarter. Status: Continue monitoring.

BD cadence and IPR&D pace — Pace continued aggressively: Q3 acquired IPR&D and milestone expense hit $1.50 per share ($2.68B pre-tax), with the Gilgamesh, Capstan, and IGI deals driving the spike. YTD through Q3, the cumulative IPR&D impact is $2.05/share. Status: Resolved negatively in the sense that the BD pace is consuming meaningful P&L; constructive on long-term asset accumulation.

What to watch into next quarter

Whether the Q4 print delivers >$16.3B revenue and $3.32–$3.36 EPS as guided — the implied Q4 EPS at midpoint is ~$3.34, and any miss would put the FY $10.61–$10.65 range at risk.

Skyrizi Q4 run-rate against the implicit $4.85B/qtr needed to hit the $17.3B FY — the third raise this year leaves limited room for any deceleration without an FY revision.

Whether FY2026 initial guidance frames adjusted operating margin recovery once YTD IPR&D mechanically rolls off, or whether the BD-driven OpEx pattern persists into next year.

Aesthetics: does Q4 hold the -3.7% trajectory or revert toward -8%, and does management refresh the $4.9B FY anchor or pre-announce a 2026 reset.

Humira US Q4 print: $3.0B FY guide leaves ~$700M for Q4 against $993M in Q3 globally — watch whether the absolute floor is forming or whether the decline re-accelerates.

Rinvoq next-wave clinical readouts, particularly the double-blinded Week 16 HS data expected end of next year, and any incremental detail on the $2B peak-year sizing.

BD-driven IPR&D charges in Q4: another $1+/sh quarter would imply a structurally elevated IPR&D run-rate rather than a one-time reset.

Sources

AbbVie Q3 2025 Press Release, SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1551152/000155115225000047/abbv-20250930xexhibit991.htm
AbbVie Q3 2025 earnings call commentary (as captured in transcript extraction inputs)

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