ABBV · Q4 2025 Earnings
BullishAbbVie
Reported February 4, 2026
30-second summary
Q4 revenue grew 10% YoY to $16.62B, beating management's own >$16.3B guide by ~$318M. Adjusted EPS of $2.71 was $0.08 above the $3.32–$3.36 guide midpoint when measured on the same basis the guide was issued — i.e., excluding acquired IPR&D — with a $0.71 IPR&D drag from Q4 BD activity reported within the adjusted figure. On the same basis, FY2025 adjusted EPS of $10.00 was $0.54 above the original guide midpoint ex-IPR&D, with $2.76 of FY IPR&D from BD (Capstan, IGI, Gilgamesh, others) that was not contemplated when the prior $10.61–$10.65 range was set. The signal that matters is FY2026: management framed +9.5% revenue growth to ~$67B and adjusted EPS of $14.37–$14.57 (excludes IPR&D, consistent with prior practice), with Skyrizi guided to $21.5B (+22.4%) and Rinvoq to $10.1B (+21.6% off the $8.304B FY2025 base) — i.e., the post-Humira growth engine is now sized at scale, and management explicitly told the street it is under-modeling the franchise.
Headline numbers
EPS
Q4 FY2025
$2.71
Revenue
Q4 FY2025
$16.62B
+10.0% YoY
Gross margin
Q4 FY2025
72.6%
Operating margin
Q4 FY2025
27.3%
Key financials
Q4 FY2025| Metric | Q4 FY2025 | YoY | Q3 FY2025 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.62B | +10.0% | $15.78B | +5.3% |
| EPS | $2.71 | — | $1.86 | +45.7% |
| Gross margin | 72.6% | — | 66.4% | +620bps |
| Operating margin | 27.3% | — | 12.1% | +1520bps |
Guidance
Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.
Actuals vs prior guidance
| Metric | Period | Prior guide | Actual | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Q4 FY2025 | more than $16.3 billion | $16.618 billion | +$0.318 billion above guide | Beat |
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | Q4 FY2025 | $3.32 to $3.36 | $2.71 | -$0.61 to -$0.65 below guide | Missed |
New guidance
| Metric | Period | Guide | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | FY 2026 | $14.37 to $14.57 | — |
| Revenue | FY 2026 | $67 billion | +9.5% |
| Immunology sales | FY 2026 | $34.5 billion | — |
| Skyrizi sales | FY 2026 | $21.5 billion | — |
| Rinvoq sales | FY 2026 | $10.1 billion | — |
| Humira sales | FY 2026 | $2.9 billion | — |
| Neuroscience sales | FY 2026 | $12.5 billion | — |
| Vraylar sales | FY 2026 | $4 billion | — |
| Botox Therapeutic sales | FY 2026 | $4.1 billion | — |
| Total oral CGRP revenue | FY 2026 | $2.9 billion | — |
| Vyalev sales | FY 2026 | $1 billion | — |
| Oncology sales | FY 2026 | $6.5 billion | — |
Segment KPIs
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Immunology | $8.626B | +18.3% |
| Skyrizi | $5.006B | +32.5% |
| Rinvoq | $2.374B | +29.5% |
| Humira | $1.246B | -25.9% |
| Neuroscience | $2.961B | +17.9% |
| Oncology | $1.664B | -1.5% |
| Aesthetics | $1.286B | -0.9% |
| Eye Care | $0.58B | -10.1% |
| Vraylar | $1.022B | — |
| Botox Therapeutic | $0.990B | — |
| Venclexta | $0.710B | — |
| Botox Cosmetic | $0.717B | — |
| Imbruvica | $0.671B | — |
Other KPIs
Q4 FY2025| Segment | Q4 FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Adjusted Operating Margin | 38.3% |
| Adjusted Gross Margin | 83.6% |
| Adjusted Tax Rate | 18.3% |
Management tone
Q2 2025: "clear line of sight" for 8 years → Q3 2025: pipeline depth as the underappreciated thesis → Q4 2025: explicitly telling the street consensus is too low on multiple franchises.
The most material tonal shift across the four quarters: management has progressed from defending Humira-LOE math, to claiming visibility, to actively pushing back on the sell side. On Skyrizi/Rinvoq, Rob Michael: "we do think on a longer-term basis there's clearly more upside to SkyRise and Rainbow" — noting the combined guide already exceeds the prior 2027 long-term anchor by half a billion. Separately, on migraine: "clearly the street is not modeling that type of upside for our migraine business" — pointing to a peak the franchise will now exceed $5B vs the prior $3B+ peak guide. This is the first quarter in the arc that management has explicitly called consensus too conservative on multiple flagship franchises.
Vyalev's positioning has compressed from "international launch progressing" two quarters ago to "blockbuster in 2026" this quarter. The Q3 framing was staffing-up for inflection; the Q4 framing is "Given these insights and the robust early launch trends globally, we now expect Vylev to achieve blockbuster revenue in 2026" — i.e., the $1B FY2026 guide makes the Parkinson's asset a sized contributor a full year earlier than the prior trajectory implied.
Oncology's narrative moved from defensive (Imbruvica IRA drag) to differentiated (ADC + PD-1/VEGF combinations). Rupal framed the RemeGen-licensed PD-1/VEGF as "a nice complement to our ADC portfolio" with the strategy to "initially combine this PD-1 VEGF with TMAB-A in lung and colorectal" to drive "faster disease control, longer duration, and ultimately longer survival." Two quarters ago this language was defensive; now it's strategic.
Aesthetics tone genuinely brightened for the first time in the arc. After three quarters of macro/consumer-sentiment hedging, management leaned into upcoming Trenibotulinumtoxin E ("Trenabot E") as a "fast-acting, short-duration toxin, which is expected to be approved in the U.S. later this year" and a sized share-gain thesis. The -0.9% Q4 print and the flat $5.0B FY2026 guide validate the framing.
The new theme this quarter: psychiatry pipeline as breakthrough optionality. The Mindset-acquired short-acting psychedelic (transcript ASR renderings vary: "Brett Asilison", "bredacilicin", "fredosilicin") was characterized by Rupal as "a potential breakthrough type of therapy...you see immediate efficacy and then you see that efficacy held on for quite some time...almost led to a remission-like state in the majority of patients." This is the first quarter in which management has elevated a psychiatry asset to "breakthrough" framing — meaningful in the context of the Vraylar $4.0B FY2026 anchor and the broader neuroscience $12.5B guide.
Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:
Risks management surfaced:
Q&A highlights
Steve Scala · TD Cowen
Addressed competitive threats to SkyRizzy and Rinvoq in sclerosis and IBD markets, and sought clarification on AbbVie's Trump administration pricing deal, specifically what exemption from future pricing mandates means beyond demonstration project avoidance.
Management emphasized stable capture rates and outlined multiple strategies to maintain SkyRizzy leadership: upcoming head-to-head data versus Intivio, planned sub-Q induction closure in early 2027, and IL-23 market expansion potential. Clarified Trump agreement includes exemption from tariffs and pricing mandates inclusive of demonstration projects during the agreement term.
David Anselm · Piper Sandler
Inquired about Rinvoq vitiligo market sizing, potential IL-15 competitive threats, and whether Vrelar replacements include long-acting injectable cariprazine formulation.
Management sized vitiligo opportunity at roughly $500M+ peak year sales as only systemic option, with $2B+ total from next-generation Rinvoq indications. Acknowledged IL-15 competitive threat but expressed confidence in Rinvoq's efficacy, tolerability, and oral formulation. Confirmed long-acting injectable cariprazine partnerships are under assessment alongside other assets.
Mohit Benzel · Wells Fargo
Asked about primary care expansion strategy for migraine portfolio, competitive dynamics, and reconciliation of AbbVie's reported oral CGRP sales versus competitor's reported new prescriber share.
Management highlighted dominant position across migraine franchise: Botox (only toxin approved for chronic migraine), Ubrelvi (leading acute migraine branded drug), and Qlipta (number one branded episodic oral CGRP). Noted primary care reach of 70,000-80,000 physicians and challenged competitor's new prescriber claims by citing $1B+ higher combined oral CGRP revenue. Projected both brands to exceed $5B peak sales from current ~$3B.
Michael Yee · UBS
Asked about goals and expected outcomes from ongoing Crohn's disease immunology platform program, specifically whether the objective is to raise efficacy bar and extend SkyRizzy leadership.
Management explained platform studies focus on efficacy improvements particularly in treatment-experienced patients (second/third line), avoiding boxed warnings by excluding anti-TNF combinations, and exploring combinations with alpha-4-beta-7 (LUDY) and TL1A. Emphasized importance of co-formulation for patient-friendly delivery and noted strong SkyRizzy penetration reducing naive patient population.
Louisa Hector · Barenberg
Asked about geographic share losses in toxins/fillers and obesity program profile expectations, including timeline to Phase 3 and regulatory pathway for weight-loss-only launch without CVOT.
Management identified Brazil as primary region with share losses (particularly fillers) while noting stability/growth in China and Asia; contextualized Brazil as <$100M market with U.S./China representing vast majority. On obesity, emphasized tolerability as key differentiator alongside weight loss efficacy, with focus on monthly dosing potential in Phase 2/3. Indicated willingness to discuss Phase 3 acceleration with regulators if strong safety/efficacy profiles emerge, suggesting potential weight-loss-only launch pathway.
Answers to last quarter's watch list
What to watch into next quarter
Whether Q1 2026 delivers revenue ~$14.7B and EPS $2.97–$3.01 (ex-IPR&D) cleanly — the credibility test for the $14.37–$14.57 FY range.
Skyrizi Q1 run-rate against the implicit ~$5.4B/qtr needed for the $21.5B FY2026 guide — any deceleration would put the FY EPS bridge at risk given Skyrizi is the largest single revenue contributor.
Rinvoq Q1 trajectory toward the $10.1B FY2026 anchor (~$2.5B/qtr implied; Q1 itself guided to ~$2.0B given seasonality and an unfavorable rebate-timing comp).
Humira Q1: $2.9B FY2026 guide implies ~$725M/qtr versus $1.25B in Q4 — watch whether the decline reaccelerates in early 2026 or the floor genuinely holds near current levels.
Vyalev quarterly run-rate against the $1B FY2026 blockbuster guide — needs ~$250M/qtr; Q4 print was $183M with strong international momentum.
Whether BD pace moderates in H1 2026 so the 48.5% adjusted operating margin guide is achievable on a reported basis, or whether another $1+/share IPR&D quarter creates a wedge between the ex-IPR&D guide and reported numbers.
Aesthetics: Q1 print versus the $5.0B FY2026 guide (~$1.25B/qtr) — does the -0.9% inflection convert to YoY positive or stall.
Trenibotulinumtoxin E ("Trenabot E") U.S. approval and launch progress later in 2026.
Sources
- AbbVie Q4 2025 / FY2025 Press Release, SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1551152/000155115226000004/abbv-20251231xexhibit991.htm
- AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call commentary (as captured in transcript extraction inputs)
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